tim the weatherman Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 NICE! That's a great looking map! Although part of me is like ugh, I just want it to be warm and stay warmyou are right nejeremy that andrew at the weather centre just said in an article that we will be in a warmperoid for two weeks without interruptions starting on the 30th of this month so the models that tom and money just saw is in fanatsy land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 late week system could be interesting. from des moines:LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BE MORE OF A SPRING TYPE Â SYSTEM. CAP IS INDICATED TO BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAT ON THE RUNS Â YESTERDAY WITH UP TO 700 J/KG AVAILABLE ON THE SRN BORDER. WILL Â CONTINUE WITH THE THUNDER MENTION OVER ABOUT THE SOUTH HALF OF THE Â STATE FOR THU. COLDER AIR WILL YIELD A MIX OF PRECIP HEADING INTO Â THU NIGHT. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE SYSTEM. COMPARISON WITH THE GFS Â AND ECMWF IS QUITE DIFFERENT ON THE INTENSITY. ECMWF MORE Â AGGRESSIVE WITH A NEGATIVE TILT TO THE TROUGH...THUS LOW BECOMES Â MORE WOUND UP. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...THE CHANCES FOR A BAND OF SNOW Â ON THE BACK SIDE WILL INCREASE. Â Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 so the models that tom and money just saw is in fanatsy land.To be fair, you're referencing info that's supposed to happen 7 days from now, and Tom's only a few days further out than what you're quoting. No need to call someone wrong because it doesn't fit the story someone else is telling right now. That's part of the fun, anyway. To see various model runs & see what they spit out. 1 ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 you are right nejeremy that andrew at the weather centre just said in an article that we will be in a warmperoid for two weeks without interruptions starting on the 30th of this month so the models that tom and money just saw is in fanatsy land.??? What are you talking about? I never mentioned anything about an article that Andrew mentioned. Also that map of snowfall from the Euro includes snowfall that we are getting tonight and might get in 5 days from now from another system. Hardly fantasy land yet you're sitting here posting that in 7 days from now and for the next 2 WEEKS after that we're going to have uninterrupted warmth. Talk about fantasy land and contradicting yourself!! Man you spew a lot of garbage all of the time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 NAM is trying to develop 2 separate waves for the early week system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 It's going to be tough to get real warmth to stick around with a -AO/near neutral NAO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 Tom, did you see GFS trying to blow up a bit more for the late week system? Des Moines is saying Euro is negative tilt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 06z GFS taking its time as usual but farther north into MN/N WI with heavier snows. You may be in a good spot to get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 12z GFS very weak for mon-tue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 DT Chicago received 2" of snow from that lake band. Fascinating to see lake snows in the Spring season. There were reports International Falls hit -26F...unbelievable in late March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 anyone have a GFS snowfall map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 23, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 Watch the PNA first of all - if it goes negative, then the trough drops into the West. Also note that the model has underplayed how positive the AO actually ended up being (lately), especially on the beyond 10 days.  Bright and sunny here this morning. Would never it was snowing within 50 miles of here. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 fantasy land but wow Minnesotahttp://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_348_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 big powerful cutoff low in the upper midwest on long range GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 -PNA will pump a SE Ridge and in return create a storm track in our region. Sure the West will start to see storminess and systems will start coming out of the SW like they did back in Feb. This fits with the LRC pattern as well. -PNA doesn't necessarily mean our region will see ridging and warmth (I do see a few days of real warm temps next Sun-Mon ish). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 Tom, hopefully with Tues-Weds system of next week, I can get over 3inches to break my snowfall record. My forecast is calling for snow likely. Lets see if mother nature will do its thing. Once I break my record, then, I can relax and enjoy Spring temps. Currently at 90.3" for the winter season and my record is 93.1". Now, tell me that doesnt make you bite a nail and thinking whether or not this has a shot at breaking the record . 1 Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 23, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 big powerful cutoff low in the upper midwest on long range GFSÂ Sounds like one of the situations from last April. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total:Â 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 whats euro look like? Â ggem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midwest buildit Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 Do what did Ord get? Getting closer to second place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 12z Euro still showing a strong 992mb SLP cutting through C IA/S WI...there are mixing issues but lots of qpf with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 23, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 Do what did Ord get? Getting closer to second place. Trace Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 Euro must be warm. 2 inches on1.2 qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 23, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 Euro must be warm. 2 inches on1.2 qpf Snows by you at 120 hours. First part of the system for RST and LSE is rain. ~6" off the EURO in 240 hours for you. Could be lower due to ratios and atmospheric profiles. 18z NAM Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 12z Euro has a much different look now Week 2. Arctic High Pressure right over the lakes feeds colder air into our region next Sun-Wed and most likely beyond. Models starting to latch on to blocking. The system next week and the cutter the following week all have potential to be bigger snow producing systems as late season Arctic High Pressures still have enough cold air to feed into the storm. Given the character of this winter, it's definitely on the table. Anyone NW of the track is in the Game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 D**n, only 27F forecasted for Tuesday...roughly 23 degrees below normal. I'd say that is pretty brutal for late March. Any daffodils/tulips that popped up last week will likely freeze by then. I saw some of my perennials pop up last week and this morning they didn't look to good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MKEstorm Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 D**n, only 27F forecasted for Tuesday...roughly 23 degrees below normal. I'd say that is pretty brutal for late March. Any daffodils/tulips that popped up last week will likely freeze by then. I saw some of my perennials pop up last week and this morning they didn't look to good.  Ya, channel 12 posted on their facebook page that it stayed in the 20's today...which is difficult to do after the Spring Equinox. They were also excited to announce that the models were agreeing on 50's for late next weekend into early next week. But the first thing I thought was that never trust models a week out...and as you mentioned in your previous post, the 12z Euro is beginning to back off a bit on the warm temps! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 looks like that warmup for next weekend will be short-lived.forecast for my area tomorrow is 1-3" which could break the all time snow record.late week system needs to be watched as Euro is showing a deeper system with snow potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 yesterday and today were about 20 degrees below normal. that would be like having 60s in the summer. pretty cold if you ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 yesterday and today were about 20 degrees below normal. that would be like having 60s in the summer. pretty cold if you ask me.But no snow to go along with it, so I don't think it's as exciting as everyone else. Just doesn't allow me to go outside, even though all the snow is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 23, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 Early spring flowers should be fine down to the upper teens.I was outside today and yesterday more so. Been able to clean up the yard and do some mulching. 12z EURO is mild looking Thursday - Tuesday morning right now. If that system heads further north, then the warmth will extend further north and last longer towards 240 hours. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 Something to think about for the following week's system to hit somewhere in our region. Here's a short article regarding that system that hit Japan Fri/Sat...this one had some juice to it. www.japantoday.com/category/national/view/heavy-snow-strong-winds-hit-northern-japan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 24, 2014 Report Share Posted March 24, 2014 Was about to report the temp when I realized I brought my temp gauge in tonight. Not quite 71 degrees outside 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 24, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 24, 2014 Jim Ramsey is going with a couple tenth's to 0.5" across NE IL, maybe some localized amounts closer to an inch. Temp fell fast to near 20°, but has been pretty steady since. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 24, 2014 Report Share Posted March 24, 2014 00z GFS is showing 70 degrees here both next Sunday and Monday. Â That would not suck. season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2"Â Â Â '21-22: 27.1"Â Â Â '20-21: 52.5"Â Â Â '19-20: 36.2"Â Â Â Â '18-19: 50.2"Â Â Â Â '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 24, 2014 Report Share Posted March 24, 2014 Euro looks springy to me. I mean its not a full blown torch but doesn't show any full blown Arctic air either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 24, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 24, 2014 Morning lows were higher than expected. Hit 17°. Local forecasters have temps near 60° on Sunday. 1 Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted March 24, 2014 Report Share Posted March 24, 2014 Some numbers from northern and central Wisconsin last night. That -23 in Land'O Lakes is on the Wis/UP border. They have good 4ft of snow on the ground up there. Down here in central Wisconsin we have nothing but piles and hard crust. My temp was a big zero last night. Impressive cold for limited snow cover and late March. I seriously hope this is the end of this garbage! I got a new bike I'm itching to ride and I dont feel like dressing up like im going snowmobiling to do so! NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS IRONWOOD PTCLDY -2 -15 55 W8 30.16S WCI -17 MANITOWISH WTR PTCLDY -18 -24 74 CALM 30.17S ARBOR VITAE PTCLDY -6 -11 78 CALM 30.17S EAGLE RIVER CLEAR -14 -21 73 CALM 30.16S LAND O LAKES CLEAR -23 -29 72 CALM 30.15F RHINELANDER CLEAR 0 -4 83 W5 30.17F WCI -10 PHILLIPS CLEAR -9 -13 83 CALM 30.20S ANTIGO PTCLDY -5 -8 85 CALM 30.20S TOMAHAWK CLEAR -9 -13 80 CALM 30.20S MERRILL PTCLDY -6 -10 80 CALM 30.22S MEDFORD CLEAR 2 -2 85 CALM 30.21F WAUSAU PTCLDY 4 0 83 CALM 30.23S MOSINEE CLEAR 5 3 92 W3 30.25S MARSHFIELD CLEAR 9 3 77 W7 30.24S WCI -2 WISC RAPIDS CLEAR 5 0 79 CALM 30.29R STEVENS POINT PTCLDY 0 -4 83 CALM 30.27S WAUPACA PTCLDY 10 7 85 CALM 30.29S SHAWANO PTCLDY 8 3 80 CALM 30.28S CLINTONVILLE PTCLDY 7 3 85 CALM 30.28S WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 24, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 24, 2014 Those are some ridiculous lows for late March!17° this morning feels warm when looking at those numbers. EURO mainly showing snow from North Dakota to the U.P. of MI through 240 hours.Cold air is disconnected from the system near the 1st. Looks like 3 good rainstorms for the lower Lakes and corn belt coming up. GFS is slightly further north. 1 Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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