December 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[bainbridgekid]

this would be a dream snow scenario as it has been parked over my area the last two days. Here it is currently.

It would have snowed a foot completely unexpectedly if it were 6-8 degrees colder. Crazy.

 

I'm not sure I've ever seen such tiny stationary showers be this incredibly persistent around here before.

[TT-SEA]

It would have snowed a foot completely unexpectedly if it were 6-8 degrees colder. Crazy.

Magic of the c-zone.

 

I remember something like 30 inches in Mt Vernon a few year back that was a surprise.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

12 EPS shows same pattern in 10-15 day range.

 

 

Waiting for oil change... will post maps when I get to computer.

Looking wet and seasonable as far as temps?  Maybe a good mountain snow pattern?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12 EPS shows same pattern in 10-15 day range.

 

 

Waiting for oil change... will post maps when I get to computer.

 

Why bother. 

[Deweydog]

You can feel those low thicknesses out there!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Looks like some decent conditions at mission ridge. They can have some amazing powder there.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Looks like some decent conditions at mission ridge. They can have some amazing powder there.

11 inches fell overnight.  They also make their own snow, since they don't normally get nearly as much as the ski areas on the passes.  But it is colder than the other areas, and known for their powder.  And occasionally they get really dumped on.   A couple of years ago they had 39 inches in a 24 hour period.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

11 inches fell overnight.  They also make their own snow, since they don't normally get nearly as much as the ski areas on the passes.  But it is colder than the other areas, and known for their powder.  And occasionally they get really dumped on.   A couple of years ago they had 39 inches in a 24 hour period.

Blewett was a show lastnight. But man was it coming down good.

[Jesse]

You can feel those low thicknesses out there!

 

Could be our coldest airmass of the season right now!

[Phil]

Looking wet and seasonable as far as temps? Maybe a good mountain snow pattern?

Wet and warm. Snowy in the high elevations, of course.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Wet and warm.

Warm based on what?  The flow looks to be from the West/Northwest, not a pineapple express.  That seems seasonable to me, certainly not cold, and not real warm.  I have seen that pattern for my area when we get a lot of snow.  Just because the air is from the Pacific does not mean "torch".  We torch when we get a pineapple express during the winter with tropical air.  

[TT-SEA]

Wet and warm. Snowy in the high elevations, of course.

Best pattern for mountain snow is actually in the 8-13 day period per the 12Z EPS... active NW flow with near normal 850mb temps.

 

 

 

[Phil]

Epic blast furnace pattern @ D15:

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Places east of cascades will build up a cold pool of air next week and will be primed for snow when the next batch of precip moves in no matter what direction it comes from. There have not been many chances for that to happen yet this season and this is one of the reasons the east slopes of the cascades are so behind on snow.

[Requiem]

Ouch, the latest GFS was not good.

[Omegaraptor]

Interesting how the NWS still doesn't have a monthly weather analysis for November...

[Front Ranger]

Are you seeing something I’m not? That’s a blowtorch pattern for all of the PNW and western Canada.

 

It's a prototypical cold loading pattern in Alaska and NW Canada. Often precedes very cold periods in the West if -WPO can develop.

[Requiem]

Interesting how the NWS still doesn't have a monthly weather analysis for November...

 

Not much to analyze about the weather this past November.

[Omegaraptor]

Not much to analyze about the weather this past November.

 

http://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=PQR

 

What I'm looking for is average temps and total precipitation to add to my 2018 weather calendar.

 

EDIT: I found them. Preliminary Monthly Data logs every day.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

FV3 GFS is much better than the operational.

[MossMan]

Down to 41 after a high of 43. Feels extra crisp all of a sudden.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If we don't ditch this split flow at some point I could see this turning into a relatively cool, but frustratingly inactive winter. 

[Tyler Mode]

Temps and precip at my house in BG.

 

Here's how November ended up...it was the 2nd driest November I've recorded (records just since 2011 at this station)

Average High: 54
Average Low: 37.2

Highest Temperature: 64 on the 1st
Lowest Temperature: 26 on the 9th
Peak Wind: 25 mph on the 30th

Precip: 3.75", (Driest was in 2013 with 3.66")

Cloudy Days: 17, (5 less than average, and least ever)
Days with precip: 16, (5 less average, and least ever)
Days with thunder: 0
Temps at/below 32: 12 (tied with 2013 for most ever)

 

The December-February period that followed the dry, and cool overnight lows in November 2013, was cool and relatively dry with 9.4" of snow.  Not bad.  Can only hope we get something similar, but certainly not expecting it.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

If we don't ditch this split flow at some point I could see this turning into a relatively cool, but frustratingly inactive winter. 

 

Agree sadly.  First 8-9 dud in a while.

[Requiem]

Agree sadly.  First 8-9 dud in a while.

 

This winter is shaping up to be even worse than the last. At least 2014-2015 gave us some nice wind events and that wicked storm in December. This winter hasn't done anything so far. I'm just a little frustrated.

[Jesse]

This winter is shaping up to be even worse than the last. At least 2014-2015 gave us some nice wind events and that wicked storm in December. This winter hasn't done anything so far. I'm just a little frustrated.

Been a long, disappointing 41 hours.

[Jesse]

18z ensembles look wet/active in the long range.

[Requiem]

Been a long, disappointing 41 hours.

 

Perhaps I should have said "year" instead. A long, disappointing year.

[Jesse]

Perhaps I should have said "year" instead. A long, disappointing year.

Ugh.

[Requiem]

Ugh.

 

All a matter of opinion, remember. I just don't seem much that really distinguishes 2018 as a whole from the rest of the pack, weather-wise. 2017 on the other hand...

[Perturbed Member]

This winter is shaping up to be even worse than the last. At least 2014-2015 gave us some nice wind events and that wicked storm in December. This winter hasn't done anything so far. I'm just a little frustrated.

 

If you thought the last winter was that bad you must be new to this area. Last season was fairly decent, no crazy big events like Jan 2017 but we had several decent setups that actually produced some widespread snow. We're capable of far worse winters here. 

[Phil]

It's a prototypical cold loading pattern in Alaska and NW Canada. Often precedes very cold periods in the West if -WPO can develop.

That’s definitely not a cold loading pattern.

 

You’re probably thinking of an Aleutian Ridge/+EPO pattern, like 2007/08 or 2011/12, which does build cold across AK/Yukon.

 

This is more of a classic jet extension with a vortex over the GOA/Aleutians, which will blast warm Pacific air into western Canada and build cold air in Siberia.

[Requiem]

If you thought the last winter was that bad you must be new to this area. Last season was fairly decent, no crazy big events like Jan 2017 but we had several decent setups that actually produced some widespread snow. We're capable of far worse winters here. 

 

Definitely not new to the area, but out of the whole year only February was noteworthy. In terms of wind and stormy weather as well as rain it was far and foremost one of the worst, barely squeaking out a peak gust of 42 mph at PDX and being exceptionally dry. For snow, yes, it was alright.

[Phil]

That’s definitely not a cold loading pattern.

 

You’re probably thinking of an Aleutian Ridge/+EPO pattern, like 2007/08 or 2011/12, which does build cold across AK/Yukon.

 

This is more of a classic jet extension with a vortex over the GOA/Aleutians, which will blast warm Pacific air into western Canada and build cold air in Siberia.

To be fair, it’s very easy to confuse the +EPO/Aleutian Ridge pattern with a jet extension/GOA vortex pattern.

 

They often look very similar @ 500mb, but they’re very different beasts in reality.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

That’s definitely not a cold loading pattern.

 

You’re probably thinking of an Aleutian Ridge/+EPO pattern, like 2007/08 or 2011/12, which does build cold across AK/Yukon.

 

This is more of a classic jet extension with a vortex over the GOA/Aleutians, which will blast warm Pacific air into western Canada and build cold air in Siberia.

You should say "relatively warm" Pacific air into Western Canada (and the PNW), because the norm in this part of the world is storms coming in from the Pacific, which is certainly relatively warmer than arctic air, but not "blowtorch", unless it comes from the tropics (like I said before, a pineapple express pattern).  This is why our mountains get so much snow (and not rain).  If all air coming off the Pacific was blowtorch warm, our mountains would never get snow.  

 

I know that sound like a nitpick, and I am not trying to do that, but it is a detail that needs to be mentioned about our climate.  And of course it is not the kind of air that gives the lowlands snow.  

[Jesse]

Definitely not new to the area, but out of the whole year only February was noteworthy. In terms of wind and stormy weather as well as rain it was far and foremost one of the worst, barely squeaking out a peak gust of 42 mph at PDX and being exceptionally dry. For snow, yes, it was alright.

Depends on what you’re looking at. Most weenies factor in more than peak wind gust at PDX when rating an overall year.

 

There were several noteworthy things about 2018, admittedly not all of them were awesome for the cool/active weather fan. The top 5 warm January, snow and cold in the last half of February with a scattering of late season record lows, the incredibly warm and dry May, then the 31 90+ days for the summer as a whole which was pretty much unheard of, and of course the ongoing drought. And then let us not forget 10/5/18.

[AbbyJr]

 

[Requiem]

Depends on what you’re looking at. Most weenies factor in more than peak wind gust at PDX when rating an overall year.

 

There were several noteworthy things about 2018, admittedly not all of them were awesome for the cool/active weather fan. The top 5 warm January, snow and cold in the last half of February with a scattering of late season record lows, the incredibly warm and dry May, then the 31 90+ days for the summer as a whole which was pretty much unheard of, and of course the ongoing drought. And then let us not forget 10/5/18.

 

Very true, I suppose I do give the season a bad rep (as a huge windstorm fan). Doesn't help that it was preceded by the best season since 2008. 

 

I do have one question- what was 10/5/18? Everyone keeps mentioning it and I don't remember anything terribly noteworthy happening that day.

[Phil]

You should say "relatively warm" Pacific air into Western Canada (and the PNW), because the norm in this part of the world is storms coming in from the Pacific, which is certainly relatively warmer than arctic air, but not "blowtorch", unless it comes from the tropics (like I said before, a pineapple express pattern). This is why our mountains get so much snow (and not rain). If all air coming off the Pacific was blowtorch warm, our mountains would never get snow.

 

I know that sound like a nitpick, and I am not trying to do that, but it is a detail that needs to be mentioned about our climate. And of course it is not the kind of air that gives the lowlands snow.

Yeah, I meant warm *relative to average*, not that the air is actually warm. That would be silly.

[Jesse]

Very true, I suppose I do give the season a bad rep (as a huge windstorm fan). Doesn't help that it was preceded by the best season since 2008.

 

I do have one question- what was 10/5/18? Everyone keeps mentioning it and I don't remember anything terribly noteworthy happening that day.

Cold phase/+Flatiron index throwback with an early season cool high benchmark at PDX.