March 1st-4th...Major Winterstorm Potential

[jaster220]

Yesterday's storm was actually a pretty big deal for MI with some places scoring 8". Nothing on the ground here, but not too far north it looks like #realwinter. NMI depths looking better than any time since the holidays.

[Hawkeye]

00z GEFS... totally abandoning the nw track.

[Stacsh]

I give up on this storm.  Models are struggling 

[Hoosier]

00z Euro just adds to the forecast complications with it being on the nw side of guidance.

[Clinton]

3km NAM and Euro are in the same camp.  The GFS and Canadian have gone warm.

[Clinton]

EAX still with no confidence in the forecast.

With the system Thursday night - Friday, there is an unusually high
amount of uncertainty due to 1) the variability in the track of the
low and 2) the thermal profile during heaviest precipitation.

Models are still varying the track of the upper low both
spatially and temporally. Looking at 12Z Friday, the deterministic
models vary the 500mb low from eastern OK, to central Arkansas,
to southwestern MO. This doesn`t seem like much but variance
greatly affects the thermal profile and the resultant
precipitation type and snow amounts. To illustrate this, comparing
forecast soundings for Kansas City between the NAM and the GFS
shows very different thermal profiles. The NAM, which is further
northwest with the upper low and the surface, shows a saturated
airmass from surface 30K ft with a nearly isothermal profile at or
just below freezing from the surface through about 6K ft. With
the intense lift shown by the NAM, this would be pouring heavy wet
snow over Kansas City as the atmosphere dynamically cools. The
GFS, in contrast, is warmer with several dry-layers through the
sounding. This would be some light rain with temperatures in the
middle 30s. So the best way to handle this uncertainty remains
looking at ensemble data. And even then there is high variance.
Ensemble members vary the track of the low from east central AR to
NW MO at 12Z Friday. SREF plume diagrams for Kansas city range
from several members with zero snow, to an extreme of 20+", and a
mean around 7". The key things the ensembles show is the strength
of the system. The NAEFS Standardized Anomaly plots continue to
indicate a very strong surface low pressure area 4-5 standard
deviations below normal over southeastern MO at 12Z. The 850mb and
700mb low also show a 4-5 standard deviation below normal over
southern MO with a 3-4 standard deviation below normal 500mb low
just slightly displaced northward from the lower-levels. ECMWF
extreme forecast index continues to point to snow amounts in the
60 to 80 percentile for reforecast period of 2002-2023. Meaning
the ECMWF ensembles are showing a good chance for snow compared
to the reforecast period. And the shift of tails remains positive
showing that at least 10% of its ensemble members are above the
99th percentile. With all that said, this remains a powerful storm
system moving across Missouri. It will have the potential, if the
track, timing, and temperatures cool enough via dynamic cooling,
to produce heavy wet snow for some of the area. It could also stay
too warm and we just get a cold rain. We`re talking about 1-2
degrees, not just at the surface, but through the lowest several
thousand feet of the atmosphere being the difference between a lot
of snow and no snow. These details can`t be worked out with much
confidence at this point this system is still 50+ hours out.

[Tom]

8 hours ago, Jaycee_CHI said:

For those who read @Tom’s post about ORD having 17.8”, you also have to realize how large the Chicago metro area is. Also, I’m not saying they’re liars, butttt I think whoever works at ORD hypes their totals. Even with severe weather, you’ll see 60mph wind gusts recorded everywhere then ORD is like “97 MPH WINDGUST RECORDED BUILDINGS CURRENTLY FLYING”. It’s weird But i assume northern burbs have actually gotten closer to that total, whereas the southern side of town (hi it’s me), has gotten less than 10”. I think we’ve had maybe like, idk, 7” total? Lmao. It’s literally THE least snowy winter I can ever remember in Chicago.
 

OH. And not only that, we’ve gotten hit by every system. But I kid you not, since December, it has poured rain, and been 34 degrees EVERY. SINGLE. TIME. Like yes I hate shoveling and stuff but omg 34 and rain EVERYTIME? Barf. 

Anyways lol.  I think it’d be foolish for anyone in my immediate area to think we’ll get anything other than 33 and rain again. It’s insane how the cutoff of snow seems to be on the Wisconsin border every single storm for the past 3 months. I have a feeling the 18z EURO run that @Clinton posted above is the exact track for this storm. It would honestly be way more odd for it not to be at this point

Sadly, your speaking the Truth here and the southern part of the Metro has had an abysmal MET Winter.  Here is a map of the region for climatological Winter and it clearly shows where the winners and losers have been.  Travel a 100 miles south and C IL into N MO has had Zilch!

[Tom]

0z EPS...

[WinterSquall23]

58 minutes ago, Tom said:

Sadly, your speaking the Truth here and the southern part of the Metro has had an abysmal MET Winter.  Here is a map of the region for climatological Winter and it clearly shows where the winners and losers have been.  Travel a 100 miles south and C IL into N MO has had Zilch!

Look at the hole near Cleveland !!!  That’s is crazy!  They really have not had a good winter this year. 

[Grizzcoat]

06z Euro caving to GFS and CMC- Good hit for Chi-town.

[MIKEKC]

06z HRRR model has the look of the NAM. 

Looks like the EURO 06z did cave to the GFS and CMC, but, it has had many solutions for KC. NAM has been consistent, So...we'll see here in an hour or two if the 12Z NAM stays put. 12Z HRRR coming out now...

 

 

[bud2380]

Wow. I can’t believe the Euro shifted this dramatically this late in the storm. 

[Iowawx]

Any chance a northern shift puts Eastern Iowa back into the game? 

 

[tStacsh]

I would need the Euro to verify, but currently an outlier still with a more NW track.  From a big snowstorm, to maybe a couple inches at most with the GFS.  

[mlgamer]

12z 12km NAM and 09z SREF both took big steps backwards for me. Not like it was a surprise or anything.

[uticasnow]

Can someone post expected snowfall amounts for southern Michigan

[tStacsh]

@jaster220 Looking good right now for your area.  NAM/EURO vs everyone else right now.  

[chances14]

ahhh the good ole fashion dry slot for semi. Not getting my hopes up

Quote

Last, the latest NAM runs and several members of the EPS show a real
concern for dry slotting in the afternoon which can either
significantly hamper qpf potential and/or can strip moisture out of
the dgz, drastically reducing snow chances in favor of rain/freezing
rain. This will have to be monitored for future updates and has bust
potential for qpf amounts.

 

[Iceresistance]

Hey @Niko, would it be okay if you push this back to March 1st because of Severe Weather ongoing from this system where @Andie is located? DFW had Quarter to Ping Pong Ball sized hail this morning.

[Icewoz]

12 minutes ago, chances14 said:

ahhh the good ole fashion dry slot for semi. Not getting my hopes up

 

I'm with you. Last good storm I remember I think was 1978.

[tStacsh]

1 hour ago, uticasnow said:

Can someone post expected snowfall amounts for southern Michigan

GFS holding steady for the more southern route.  

[Hoosier]

Something's gotta give with the models.  Hawkeye pointed this out previously but if you look at the 500 mb maps, the NAM is still running farther north with the 500 mb low.  At 48 hours, it has that located near the area where MO/KS/OK/AR meet, while the GFS is down in central AR.

[Hawkeye]

12z Canadian... yikes.  This is the one model that never bought into the nw shift.

[Tom]

12z GEFS...

[Hoosier]

8 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

12z Canadian... yikes.  This is the one model that never bought into the nw shift.

Wow.  Seems over the top (or under in this case lol) but still a lot of uncertainty with this storm.  The models struggling with thermal profiles like this reminds me more of an April storm but here we are in the beginning of March.

[Hawkeye]

12z UK

[bud2380]

Man models have just sucked this season.  I mean so late in the game to be changing this dramatically is unreal.  And the ensembles really blew this storm.  

[tStacsh]

3 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Man models have just sucked this season.  I mean so late in the game to be changing this dramatically is unreal.  And the ensembles really blew this storm.  

I think we see the Euro and NAM cave the next run or 2.  SMI might be the only area that gets anything out of this storm winter weather wise.  

[bud2380]

9 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

I think we see the Euro and NAM cave the next run or 2.  SMI might be the only area that gets anything out of this storm winter weather wise.  

The NAM literally means nothing to me, LOL.  It's so bad.  The Euro did surprise me though, especially the EPS, it looks like the 6z Euro already caved a lot, so I expect the 12z run to be a total cave.  Honestly I don't even want snow, so I'm not really upset, but it's still fun to watch it fall, so I wouldn't turn it down.  I'm more in disbelief at how bad the Euro did with this one.  

[Tom]

1 hour ago, Iceresistance said:

Hey @Niko, would it be okay if you push this back to March 1st because of Severe Weather ongoing from this system where @Andie is located? DFW had Quarter to Ping Pong Ball sized hail this morning.

Done...

On a side note, March Roaring in like a Lion for the Mtn's of AZ...

 

Live cam up in Snowbowl Ski Resort...

https://www.snowbowl.ski/the-mountain/weather-conditions-webcams/

[Tom]

This would be a pleasant surprise...

[brianc400]

This is going to be a NowCast event.

[Tom]

1 minute ago, brianc400 said:

This is going to be a NowCast event.

100%

[Stacsh]

The king doesn’t waver.  Still 100 miles apart from GFS on heaviest snow.  

[Tom]

12z EPS...

[Tom]

12z Euro Control...

[Tom]

18z NAM's going big...

 

[KTPmidMO]

16 minutes ago, Tom said:

12z Euro Control...

Do you have access to all the Euro ensembles?

[KTPmidMO]

11 minutes ago, Tom said:

18z NAM's going big...

 

18z NAM and 3km NAM had a noticeable SW shift from 12z. Do you think that is correct and will that continue? Also, How is there such a difference between what the Euro/NAM show compared to the GFS/GEM? Euro/NAM show I big swath of snow in Missouri and GFS/GEM literally have nothing in Missouri. And we are the day before the storm!!! Its almost comical how different they are.

[Bumblin Bman09]

@Tom I am currently due to return back to ORD on Friday at 2pm.  I haven't adjusted my flight yet, however, I am considering moving my flight to Thursday PM or Friday AM.  You have any thoughts on my current status?  Thanks for any feedback.

[Tom]

11 minutes ago, Bumblin Bman09 said:

@Tom I am currently due to return back to ORD on Friday at 2pm.  I haven't adjusted my flight yet, however, I am considering moving my flight to Thursday PM or Friday AM.  You have any thoughts on my current status?  Thanks for any feedback.

I’d change it to tomorrow night if possible bc it’ll be pretty ugly by Noon Friday and likely delays all day on Friday.

[Tom]

20 minutes ago, KTPmidMO said:

18z NAM and 3km NAM had a noticeable SW shift from 12z. Do you think that is correct and will that continue? Also, How is there such a difference between what the Euro/NAM show compared to the GFS/GEM? Euro/NAM show I big swath of snow in Missouri and GFS/GEM literally have nothing in Missouri. And we are the day before the storm!!! Its almost comical how different they are.

Now cast!  This is gonna be a difficult system to forecast off the modeling and it’ll be a situation where we need a “human” touch.  I figure if the 500mb vortex is tracking close to your area in N MO that you’ll switch over due to dynamical cooling aloft.  The last storm like this one produced 3-6” in the KC area that wasn’t forecast at all and it was a surprise snow.

[Bumblin Bman09]

@Tom Much appreciated Tom.  Looks like I may have an issue getting a flight Thursday PM due to meeting schedule, however, I should be able to get on an early flight Friday AM.  I think its crazy the N IL could get a decent size snowfall or 1".

[Andie]

See anything awry?

[KTPmidMO]

21z RAP.. 

[Yerf]

[gimmesnow]

Hope we get some of this in SE Wisconsin. If it snows like crazy in Chicago and misses up here, all the Chicago people come up here to ski/snowboard thinking it just snowed and the hill will be amazing. Except it won't be amazing, it'll be terrible and they're far more likely to hurt themselves. Looks like that's what it's going to be, though. Too bad.

[Jaycee_CHI]

Feels cool to look at models again, it’s been a minute!! 
 

I really hope this happens somehow, this looks like some insane snowfall rates, and if I can score some thunder snow I’ll be in heaven! 
 

[Stacsh]

15 minutes ago, Jaycee_CHI said:

Feels cool to look at models again, it’s been a minute!! 
 

I really hope this happens somehow, this looks like some insane snowfall rates, and if I can score some thunder snow I’ll be in heaven! 
 

This the NAM?  Yeah would be nice but an outlier at this point.  

[gimmesnow]

Yeah so many models have this going south of Chicago with snow and hitting Detroit. Icon, Canadian, FV3, RGEM, HRDPS. Euro and NAM have to pull off a big upset for Chicago to see any snow, let alone SE Wisconsin. We are still roughly 3 days out but NAM has been blowing stuff this season pretty badly. Tho last time I said something like this I was horribly wrong so lol.