March 1st-4th...Major Winterstorm Potential

[bud2380]

Wow, the Euro clobbers eastern Iowa.

 

[Grizzcoat]

2 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Euro looks like its shifting NW again. 

Big time

[bud2380]

Ratios are absolute garbage though.  Literally 6 to 8:1.  

[bud2380]

10:1 vs Kuchera

 

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z Euro has 0.0" for me, the 12Z NAM has 17".  Ok.

[Hoosier]

As far as ice, unclear what the temporal window will be for freezing rain... as in how long it will last at a given location.  But there are model indications of 40+ mph gusts being possible while the freezing rain is occurring, so it would take very little to start causing tree/powerline issues with winds like that.

[Hawkeye]

12z EPS mean... the farthest nw EPS run so far.

[Grizzcoat]

15Z SREF-

[Hoosier]

Almost thought I saw the EPS map twice.  Very similar placement of the main snow axis between the EPS and SREF.

[Tom]

12z Euro/EPS gives me pause...may be an overamped run, but who the heck knows...N MO/E IA up into S WI looking much better...

[gimmesnow]

This time of the year is the most exciting to watch winter storms, because the models are always so whacked out and so liable to change. And it feels like you're getting something special. Storms in January that don't work out leave you feeling like you got ripped off but storms in March make you feel like you're getting a bonus, especially because you don't expect them to really happen.

[Hoosier]

8 minutes ago, Tom said:

12z Euro/EPS gives me pause...may be an overamped run, but who the heck knows...N MO/E IA up into S WI looking much better...

Wish we had colder temps aloft to go along with the milder than average lake temps.  Even a farther south track wouldn't help much because this airmass simply isn't that cold.  Could be a wee bit of contribution from the lake but not a significant factor.

[bud2380]

36 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

15Z SREF-

Wow the SREF and EPS are remarkably similar. 

[bud2380]

NWS model blend is even further NW than the EPS.

 

[Tom]

18 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Wish we had colder temps aloft to go along with the milder than average lake temps.  Even a farther south track wouldn't help much because this airmass simply isn't that cold.  Could be a wee bit of contribution from the lake but not a significant factor.

This has to be the 3rd storm of the season that had the right track and deep moisture but lack of any sustained cold out ahead of the storm.  Just not our winter.

[Hawkeye]

11 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

NWS model blend is even further NW than the EPS.

 

It seems like a blend of models would be southeast of this.  This looks more like the nw edge of the model range.

[gimmesnow]

7 minutes ago, Tom said:

This has to be the 3rd storm of the season that had the right track and deep moisture but lack of any sustained cold out ahead of the storm.  Just not our winter.

Yeah, I feel like it's always been the 10:1 maps were low balls and the Kuchera was king. But this storm has Kuchera below 10:1. It's gonna be wet, heavy, and slow for snowboarding but at least it's not ice. Things were really messed up here with that ice storm.

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings now saying snow likely after noon on Thursday with a couple inches at least.  I will want to see tomorrow's models to see if this materializes.  I see my local weather apps are really focusing on the middle of next week on for a prolonged period of snow.

[Hoosier]

18z NAM is at least a bit quicker on this run.

[tStacsh]

Grand Rapids NWS is on board.  

"Cold advection on the back side of the departing low Wednesday night and Thursday sets the stage for Friday, which has seen the ECMWF trend strongly towards the GFS solution of a significant winter storm for our area. This one has the potential to cause disruption via heavy snow, winds and yes, unfortunately freezing rain in places that have already been battered the past couple weeks across southern Lower Michigan. The main time frame looks to be Friday into Friday night".

[Hoosier]

You can summarize the afternoon LOT discussion in 2 words:  low confidence.  They mentioned low confidence on literally every facet of the storm.

[james1976]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

This has to be the 3rd storm of the season that had the right track and deep moisture but lack of any sustained cold out ahead of the storm.  Just not our winter.

What's ORD at for the season?

[Icewoz]

DTX is being low-key as well, which they should be. You don't want to "cry wolf" everytime something shows up that can be decided on with more information later. It seems every storm this year moving through the country has been portrayed as "the storm of the century" by the media for some reason.

Focus then turns towards the potential for a impactful winter storm
to affect the central Great Lakes. Confidence remains high for
widespread precipitation moving into southeast Michigan starting
Friday morning and continuing through Friday night/Saturday morning.
This system will emerge from a Pacific wave with the 500 mb trough
diving through the Four Corners region on Thursday with a 140 knot
upper jet rounding the base. Associated surface low pressure
strengthens as it lifts into IL and is forecast to track just south
of the CWA or right along the southern MI border. This places
southeast Michigan in a favorable spot for potentially several inches
of accumulating snow, which is supported by the ensemble spread.
However, the swath of highest snowfall totals still remains sensitive
to the exact track of the low. Thermal profiles also offer a chance
for a wintry mix during a portion of this event, but confidence in
ptypes is too low this far out to nail down exact details. Be sure to
stay up to date with the forecast as details become more clear on
this potential major winter storm.

[bud2380]

[Tom]

23 minutes ago, james1976 said:

What's ORD at for the season?

17.9” but the NW burbs are 10”+ 

[hlcater]

Need the GFS to come on board. Still warm and SE relative to the ensembles, NAM, euro etc.

[Money]

Just saw the euro and wow 

[Money]

Gfs ensembles way SE this run 

[KTPmidMO]

Just now, Money said:

Gfs ensembles way SE this run 

Can you post the GFS ensembles here for me? Thanks

[gimmesnow]

Money you are such a tease.

[Hawkeye]

My current guess is the snow band will be mostly southeast of my area, closer to the GFS than Euro.

[Stacsh]

Don’t this goes any more north from here on out.  GFS is now a little south of every other model.  

[Hoosier]

37 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

My current guess is the snow band will be mostly southeast of my area, closer to the GFS than Euro.

Our friend in Erie, IL may be in a decent spot.  Though even some differences in regards to when the snow band really gets cranking.

[Iowawx]

47 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

My current guess is the snow band will be mostly southeast of my area, closer to the GFS than Euro.

Not buying into the Euro/Nam? The NW trend has been pretty consistent and most models, except the GFS are showing snow up here.

[Hawkeye]

1 minute ago, Iowawx said:

Not buying into the Euro/Nam? The NW trend has been pretty consistent and most models, except the GFS are showing snow up here.

Yeah, I'm thinking we've seen the nw trend and it will gradually fade back southeast as it approaches.

[Clinton]

18z Euro 

[Hawkeye]

This looks like another narrow-swath snow event.  Big warmth will be surging up from the south.  Dry air will be suppressing it from the north.  In between there will be a narrow band of concrete.  This is a bit similar to the storm a few weeks ago that dropped 6-9" from Dubuque to Madison.

[Jaycee_CHI]

For those who read @Tom’s post about ORD having 17.8”, you also have to realize how large the Chicago metro area is. Also, I’m not saying they’re liars, butttt I think whoever works at ORD hypes their totals. Even with severe weather, you’ll see 60mph wind gusts recorded everywhere then ORD is like “97 MPH WINDGUST RECORDED BUILDINGS CURRENTLY FLYING”. It’s weird But i assume northern burbs have actually gotten closer to that total, whereas the southern side of town (hi it’s me), has gotten less than 10”. I think we’ve had maybe like, idk, 7” total? Lmao. It’s literally THE least snowy winter I can ever remember in Chicago.
 

OH. And not only that, we’ve gotten hit by every system. But I kid you not, since December, it has poured rain, and been 34 degrees EVERY. SINGLE. TIME. Like yes I hate shoveling and stuff but omg 34 and rain EVERYTIME? Barf. 

Anyways lol.  I think it’d be foolish for anyone in my immediate area to think we’ll get anything other than 33 and rain again. It’s insane how the cutoff of snow seems to be on the Wisconsin border every single storm for the past 3 months. I have a feeling the 18z EURO run that @Clinton posted above is the exact track for this storm. It would honestly be way more odd for it not to be at this point

[jaster220]

46 minutes ago, Jaycee_CHI said:

For those who read @Tom’s post about ORD having 17.8”, you also have to realize how large the Chicago metro area is. Also, I’m not saying they’re liars, butttt I think whoever works at ORD hypes their totals. Even with severe weather, you’ll see 60mph wind gusts recorded everywhere then ORD is like “97 MPH WINDGUST RECORDED BUILDINGS CURRENTLY FLYING”. It’s weird But i assume northern burbs have actually gotten closer to that total, whereas the southern side of town (hi it’s me), has gotten less than 10”. I think we’ve had maybe like, idk, 7” total? Lmao. It’s literally THE least snowy winter I can ever remember in Chicago.
 

OH. And not only that, we’ve gotten hit by every system. But I kid you not, since December, it has poured rain, and been 34 degrees EVERY. SINGLE. TIME. Like yes I hate shoveling and stuff but omg 34 and rain EVERYTIME? Barf. 

Anyways lol.  I think it’d be foolish for anyone in my immediate area to think we’ll get anything other than 33 and rain again. It’s insane how the cutoff of snow seems to be on the Wisconsin border every single storm for the past 3 months. I have a feeling the 18z EURO run that @Clinton posted above is the exact track for this storm. It would honestly be way more odd for it not to be at this point

Aside from the one storm, been same exact broken record here for DTW. 34F and rain (endless) 34F and snow (once)

[Hawkeye]

NAM still nw, RDPS (and very likely the GDPS) still se.

[jaster220]

6 hours ago, Icewoz said:

DTX is being low-key as well, which they should be. You don't want to "cry wolf" everytime something shows up that can be decided on with more information later. It seems every storm this year moving through the country has been portrayed as "the storm of the century" by the media for some reason.

Focus then turns towards the potential for a impactful winter storm
to affect the central Great Lakes. Confidence remains high for
widespread precipitation moving into southeast Michigan starting
Friday morning and continuing through Friday night/Saturday morning.
This system will emerge from a Pacific wave with the 500 mb trough
diving through the Four Corners region on Thursday with a 140 knot
upper jet rounding the base. Associated surface low pressure
strengthens as it lifts into IL and is forecast to track just south
of the CWA or right along the southern MI border. This places
southeast Michigan in a favorable spot for potentially several inches
of accumulating snow, which is supported by the ensemble spread.
However, the swath of highest snowfall totals still remains sensitive
to the exact track of the low. Thermal profiles also offer a chance
for a wintry mix during a portion of this event, but confidence in
ptypes is too low this far out to nail down exact details. Be sure to
stay up to date with the forecast as details become more clear on
this potential major winter storm.

I suppose they are thinking of their entire CWA, because that's way too bullish on winter impacts for their lowest 2 tiers.

WPC today saying snow N, something S for The Mitt.

 

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, Jaycee_CHI said:

For those who read @Tom’s post about ORD having 17.8”, you also have to realize how large the Chicago metro area is. Also, I’m not saying they’re liars, butttt I think whoever works at ORD hypes their totals. Even with severe weather, you’ll see 60mph wind gusts recorded everywhere then ORD is like “97 MPH WINDGUST RECORDED BUILDINGS CURRENTLY FLYING”. It’s weird But i assume northern burbs have actually gotten closer to that total, whereas the southern side of town (hi it’s me), has gotten less than 10”. I think we’ve had maybe like, idk, 7” total? Lmao. It’s literally THE least snowy winter I can ever remember in Chicago.
 

OH. And not only that, we’ve gotten hit by every system. But I kid you not, since December, it has poured rain, and been 34 degrees EVERY. SINGLE. TIME. Like yes I hate shoveling and stuff but omg 34 and rain EVERYTIME? Barf. 

Anyways lol.  I think it’d be foolish for anyone in my immediate area to think we’ll get anything other than 33 and rain again. It’s insane how the cutoff of snow seems to be on the Wisconsin border every single storm for the past 3 months. I have a feeling the 18z EURO run that @Clinton posted above is the exact track for this storm. It would honestly be way more odd for it not to be at this point

I'm in low end double digits for the season and we're not that far apart location-wise.  The 0.3", 0.8" type amounts add up, but are easily forgettable.

[Hoosier]

7 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

NAM still nw, RDPS (and very likely the GDPS) still se.

Hey, check your pm's.

[Hawkeye]

The ICON made a big jump nw this morning, but has gone right back southeast this evening.

[jaster220]

Lightfoot loses. Good riddance. Maybe I can enjoy Chicago again some day (sorry for OT post)

[Hawkeye]

The 00z GFS is way southeast, waving bye-bye to Iowa.  I totally expected this.

[jaster220]

1 minute ago, Hawkeye said:

The 00z GFS is way southeast, waving bye-bye to Iowa.  I totally expected this.

I think you've been trolled "severely" more than once this winter. Sucky models are horrible!

[Hoosier]

Gonna be wild if the heavy band ends up south of me.

[jaster220]

Just now, Hoosier said:

Gonna be wild if the heavy band ends up south of me.

NO WAY that happens

[Hoosier]

2 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

NO WAY that happens

You wouldn't think.