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March 1st-4th...Major Winterstorm Potential


Niko

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As far as ice, unclear what the temporal window will be for freezing rain... as in how long it will last at a given location.  But there are model indications of 40+ mph gusts being possible while the freezing rain is occurring, so it would take very little to start causing tree/powerline issues with winds like that.

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This time of the year is the most exciting to watch winter storms, because the models are always so whacked out and so liable to change. And it feels like you're getting something special. Storms in January that don't work out leave you feeling like you got ripped off but storms in March make you feel like you're getting a bonus, especially because you don't expect them to really happen.

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8 minutes ago, Tom said:

12z Euro/EPS gives me pause...may be an overamped run, but who the heck knows...N MO/E IA up into S WI looking much better...

Wish we had colder temps aloft to go along with the milder than average lake temps.  Even a farther south track wouldn't help much because this airmass simply isn't that cold.  Could be a wee bit of contribution from the lake but not a significant factor.

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18 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Wish we had colder temps aloft to go along with the milder than average lake temps.  Even a farther south track wouldn't help much because this airmass simply isn't that cold.  Could be a wee bit of contribution from the lake but not a significant factor.

This has to be the 3rd storm of the season that had the right track and deep moisture but lack of any sustained cold out ahead of the storm.  Just not our winter.

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11 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

NWS model blend is even further NW than the EPS.

 

snowfall_acc-imp.us_mw.png

It seems like a blend of models would be southeast of this.  This looks more like the nw edge of the model range.

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season snowfall: 5.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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7 minutes ago, Tom said:

This has to be the 3rd storm of the season that had the right track and deep moisture but lack of any sustained cold out ahead of the storm.  Just not our winter.

Yeah, I feel like it's always been the 10:1 maps were low balls and the Kuchera was king. But this storm has Kuchera below 10:1. It's gonna be wet, heavy, and slow for snowboarding but at least it's not ice. Things were really messed up here with that ice storm.

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Grand Rapids NWS is on board.  

"Cold advection on the back side of the departing low Wednesday night and Thursday sets the stage for Friday, which has seen the ECMWF trend strongly towards the GFS solution of a significant winter storm for our area. This one has the potential to cause disruption via heavy snow, winds and yes, unfortunately freezing rain in places that have already been battered the past couple weeks across southern Lower Michigan. The main time frame looks to be Friday into Friday night".

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DTX is being low-key as well, which they should be. You don't want to "cry wolf" everytime something shows up that can be decided on with more information later. It seems every storm this year moving through the country has been portrayed as "the storm of the century" by the media for some reason.

Focus then turns towards the potential for a impactful winter storm
to affect the central Great Lakes. Confidence remains high for
widespread precipitation moving into southeast Michigan starting
Friday morning and continuing through Friday night/Saturday morning.
This system will emerge from a Pacific wave with the 500 mb trough
diving through the Four Corners region on Thursday with a 140 knot
upper jet rounding the base. Associated surface low pressure
strengthens as it lifts into IL and is forecast to track just south
of the CWA or right along the southern MI border. This places
southeast Michigan in a favorable spot for potentially several inches
of accumulating snow, which is supported by the ensemble spread.
However, the swath of highest snowfall totals still remains sensitive
to the exact track of the low. Thermal profiles also offer a chance
for a wintry mix during a portion of this event, but confidence in
ptypes is too low this far out to nail down exact details. Be sure to
stay up to date with the forecast as details become more clear on
this potential major winter storm.
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My current guess is the snow band will be mostly southeast of my area, closer to the GFS than Euro.

season snowfall: 5.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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37 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

My current guess is the snow band will be mostly southeast of my area, closer to the GFS than Euro.

Our friend in Erie, IL may be in a decent spot.  Though even some differences in regards to when the snow band really gets cranking.

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47 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

My current guess is the snow band will be mostly southeast of my area, closer to the GFS than Euro.

Not buying into the Euro/Nam? The NW trend has been pretty consistent and most models, except the GFS are showing snow up here.

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1 minute ago, Iowawx said:

Not buying into the Euro/Nam? The NW trend has been pretty consistent and most models, except the GFS are showing snow up here.

Yeah, I'm thinking we've seen the nw trend and it will gradually fade back southeast as it approaches.

season snowfall: 5.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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This looks like another narrow-swath snow event.  Big warmth will be surging up from the south.  Dry air will be suppressing it from the north.  In between there will be a narrow band of concrete.  This is a bit similar to the storm a few weeks ago that dropped 6-9" from Dubuque to Madison.

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season snowfall: 5.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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For those who read @Tom’s post about ORD having 17.8”, you also have to realize how large the Chicago metro area is. Also, I’m not saying they’re liars, butttt I think whoever works at ORD hypes their totals. Even with severe weather, you’ll see 60mph wind gusts recorded everywhere then ORD is like “97 MPH WINDGUST RECORDED BUILDINGS CURRENTLY FLYING”. It’s weird 😅 But i assume northern burbs have actually gotten closer to that total, whereas the southern side of town (hi it’s me), has gotten less than 10”. I think we’ve had maybe like, idk, 7” total? Lmao. It’s literally THE least snowy winter I can ever remember in Chicago.
 

OH. And not only that, we’ve gotten hit by every system. But I kid you not, since December, it has poured rain, and been 34 degrees EVERY. SINGLE. TIME. Like yes I hate shoveling and stuff but omg 34 and rain EVERYTIME? Barf. 

Anyways lol.  I think it’d be foolish for anyone in my immediate area to think we’ll get anything other than 33 and rain again. It’s insane how the cutoff of snow seems to be on the Wisconsin border every single storm for the past 3 months. I have a feeling the 18z EURO run that @Clinton posted above is the exact track for this storm. It would honestly be way more odd for it not to be at this point 😂

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46 minutes ago, Jaycee_CHI said:

For those who read @Tom’s post about ORD having 17.8”, you also have to realize how large the Chicago metro area is. Also, I’m not saying they’re liars, butttt I think whoever works at ORD hypes their totals. Even with severe weather, you’ll see 60mph wind gusts recorded everywhere then ORD is like “97 MPH WINDGUST RECORDED BUILDINGS CURRENTLY FLYING”. It’s weird 😅 But i assume northern burbs have actually gotten closer to that total, whereas the southern side of town (hi it’s me), has gotten less than 10”. I think we’ve had maybe like, idk, 7” total? Lmao. It’s literally THE least snowy winter I can ever remember in Chicago.
 

OH. And not only that, we’ve gotten hit by every system. But I kid you not, since December, it has poured rain, and been 34 degrees EVERY. SINGLE. TIME. Like yes I hate shoveling and stuff but omg 34 and rain EVERYTIME? Barf. 

Anyways lol.  I think it’d be foolish for anyone in my immediate area to think we’ll get anything other than 33 and rain again. It’s insane how the cutoff of snow seems to be on the Wisconsin border every single storm for the past 3 months. I have a feeling the 18z EURO run that @Clinton posted above is the exact track for this storm. It would honestly be way more odd for it not to be at this point 😂

Aside from the one storm, been same exact broken record here for DTW. 34F and rain (endless) 34F and snow (once)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 2.3"    Largest Storm: 2.1" (11/26-27)        Oct: 0.2 Nov: 2.1 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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NAM still nw, RDPS (and very likely the GDPS) still se.

season snowfall: 5.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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6 hours ago, Icewoz said:

DTX is being low-key as well, which they should be. You don't want to "cry wolf" everytime something shows up that can be decided on with more information later. It seems every storm this year moving through the country has been portrayed as "the storm of the century" by the media for some reason.

Focus then turns towards the potential for a impactful winter storm
to affect the central Great Lakes. Confidence remains high for
widespread precipitation moving into southeast Michigan starting
Friday morning and continuing through Friday night/Saturday morning.
This system will emerge from a Pacific wave with the 500 mb trough
diving through the Four Corners region on Thursday with a 140 knot
upper jet rounding the base. Associated surface low pressure
strengthens as it lifts into IL and is forecast to track just south
of the CWA or right along the southern MI border. This places
southeast Michigan in a favorable spot for potentially several inches
of accumulating snow, which is supported by the ensemble spread.
However, the swath of highest snowfall totals still remains sensitive
to the exact track of the low. Thermal profiles also offer a chance
for a wintry mix during a portion of this event, but confidence in
ptypes is too low this far out to nail down exact details. Be sure to
stay up to date with the forecast as details become more clear on
this potential major winter storm.

I suppose they are thinking of their entire CWA, because that's way too bullish on winter impacts for their lowest 2 tiers.

WPC today saying snow N, something S for The Mitt.

 

23-02-28 CPC Hazards d3-7.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 2.3"    Largest Storm: 2.1" (11/26-27)        Oct: 0.2 Nov: 2.1 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 hour ago, Jaycee_CHI said:

For those who read @Tom’s post about ORD having 17.8”, you also have to realize how large the Chicago metro area is. Also, I’m not saying they’re liars, butttt I think whoever works at ORD hypes their totals. Even with severe weather, you’ll see 60mph wind gusts recorded everywhere then ORD is like “97 MPH WINDGUST RECORDED BUILDINGS CURRENTLY FLYING”. It’s weird 😅 But i assume northern burbs have actually gotten closer to that total, whereas the southern side of town (hi it’s me), has gotten less than 10”. I think we’ve had maybe like, idk, 7” total? Lmao. It’s literally THE least snowy winter I can ever remember in Chicago.
 

OH. And not only that, we’ve gotten hit by every system. But I kid you not, since December, it has poured rain, and been 34 degrees EVERY. SINGLE. TIME. Like yes I hate shoveling and stuff but omg 34 and rain EVERYTIME? Barf. 

Anyways lol.  I think it’d be foolish for anyone in my immediate area to think we’ll get anything other than 33 and rain again. It’s insane how the cutoff of snow seems to be on the Wisconsin border every single storm for the past 3 months. I have a feeling the 18z EURO run that @Clinton posted above is the exact track for this storm. It would honestly be way more odd for it not to be at this point 😂

I'm in low end double digits for the season and we're not that far apart location-wise.  The 0.3", 0.8" type amounts add up, but are easily forgettable.

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The ICON made a big jump nw this morning, but has gone right back southeast this evening.

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season snowfall: 5.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Lightfoot loses. Good riddance. Maybe I can enjoy Chicago again some day (sorry for OT post)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 2.3"    Largest Storm: 2.1" (11/26-27)        Oct: 0.2 Nov: 2.1 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The 00z GFS is way southeast, waving bye-bye to Iowa.  I totally expected this.

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season snowfall: 5.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 minute ago, Hawkeye said:

The 00z GFS is way southeast, waving bye-bye to Iowa.  I totally expected this.

I think you've been trolled "severely" more than once this winter. Sucky models are horrible!

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 2.3"    Largest Storm: 2.1" (11/26-27)        Oct: 0.2 Nov: 2.1 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Just now, Hoosier said:

Gonna be wild if the heavy band ends up south of me.

NO WAY that happens

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 2.3"    Largest Storm: 2.1" (11/26-27)        Oct: 0.2 Nov: 2.1 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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  • Tom changed the title to March 1st-4th...Major Winterstorm Potential
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