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March 1st-4th...Major Winterstorm Potential


Niko

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Could this be the big one for many that have not seen one yet this winter??!!

Lets discuss...looking like a fun week of excitement in the weather dept. for some.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9" So far......BN

Mar 2024:

April 2024:

Season So Far: 21.8"

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Some real good hits for S MI and for others as well.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2023_02/290505427_ScreenShot2023-02-26at2_16_46PM.png.8c3be454045c7178a1eecf2844507c59.png

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9" So far......BN

Mar 2024:

April 2024:

Season So Far: 21.8"

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23 minutes ago, Niko said:

Could this be the big one for many that have not seen one yet this winter??!!

Lets discuss...looking like a fun week of excitement in the weather dept. for some.

Thanks for starting a thread, I didn't want to jinx it for anybody lol.  Getting Winter weather around here has been tough, hope this one pans out.  Trends today look good for us.

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2 hours ago, Clinton said:

Thanks for starting a thread, I didn't want to jinx it for anybody lol.  Getting Winter weather around here has been tough, hope this one pans out.  Trends today look good for us.

Haha, and @Niko beat me to it. I was ready to bite on this. Would be nice if it could be a wealth sharing system for KC/ORD/DTW and some others along the way. Btw, gorgeous 50F March wx here this pm.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 48.2"    Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)        Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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2 hours ago, KTPmidMO said:

Does anyone here have access to all the ensemble members for the GEFS and can post them? Please and thank you.

#4 or #16 would make more than a few Peeps happy:

2023-02-26 12z GEFS members h144.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 48.2"    Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)        Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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6 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

I doubt it 

Appreciate the optimism. You know one of these times it's gonna happen. I'd prefer to just ignore all the model mayhem and wait until it IS happening. So much more satisfying. That's what happened with this last-minute ISW. With the Jan storm, it just seemed like we tracked that thing forever! Run after run after run. The good thing was it stayed consistent. But while it did increase amounts ever so slightly, it didn't explode into a BD, just remained a decent system the way it began it's cyber life. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 48.2"    Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)        Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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13 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

I doubt it 

Usually, a storm taking a track like shown has a fairly low ceiling. There are few rare exceptions so can't totally take it off the table. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 48.2"    Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)        Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Just now, Hoosier said:

Imagine if we had a stronger surface high to the north with this low.  Good Lord.  I mean it will be windy as is but just think.

Can you put in a request for one, lol. I will say that 12/23-24 delivered on the winds here (rare), so there's at least some precedent this season. 2/15/21 had decent winds as well for SMI. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 48.2"    Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)        Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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EPS had a mean SLP in the mid-980's

 

2023-02-26 12z EPS h120.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 48.2"    Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)        Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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This system is certainly NOT lacking in the precip dept, however, we may be having to deal with warm temps at the onset but that'll not be an issue once it matures and creates its own cold air.  Kinda sucks there isn't a stronger Arctic HP to our north, but hey, beggers can't be choosers in what has been a lack luster snow season.

0z Euro Control...

image.png

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This one is winding up just as it passes my area. Most models show little to no snow here, though a few ensemble members have a couple inches. We do get a bit of a push of cold air right ahead of it as a northerly pressure gradient briefly sets up. If that is underdone it could be beneficial for increasing snow chances but for now I've been burned enough times I am just mostly wanting to watch and wait. 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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12 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Usually, a storm taking a track like shown has a fairly low ceiling. There are few rare exceptions so can't totally take it off the table. 

I'm trying not to even track this one.  It's currently too far south for me, but could still render some impacts here.  That said, I don't want it.  I want spring lol.  But if it moves a little north and hits, I'll be ok with that as well.  I think we warm up after the first week of March, so this could be winters last big push.  

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10 minutes ago, MKEstorm said:

Wait! What?!?! 😲

 I really think the medium range has really struggle this year on models.  Very active pattern this winter.  Lot's of moving parts.  Tough to nail down any track 4-7 days out.  I'm punting on this storm until at least wednesday. 

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47 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

 I really think the medium range has really struggle this year on models.  Very active pattern this winter.  Lot's of moving parts.  Tough to nail down any track 4-7 days out.  I'm punting on this storm until at least wednesday. 

Well, I noticed something was weird when recent op runs of the Euro and GFS had this storm well to the south..whereas the GEFS and EPS were well north of the ops! So, I knew something had to give. We’ll see what transpires the next few days. But ya, probably not a good idea to get that invested yet.

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I've been watching the models, but this system has been so far south I never considered it to be of any concern to Iowans.

Um... 12z GFS

image.thumb.png.bb866d8a05bef22d1704dde79d357d86.png

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season snowfall: 28.9"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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8 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

I've been watching the models, but this system has been so far south I never considered it to be of any concern to Iowans.

Um... 12z GFS

image.thumb.png.bb866d8a05bef22d1704dde79d357d86.png

Starts out as a little mixed precip here as well before changing over.  The SLP path is almost perfect for our neck of the woods.  I wondered if we would see a shift NW considering how much further NW the ensembles were from the operational model.  Both on the Euro and GFS.  

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