March 1st-4th...Major Winterstorm Potential

[Niko]

Could this be the big one for many that have not seen one yet this winter??!!

Lets discuss...looking like a fun week of excitement in the weather dept. for some.

[Niko]

Some real good hits for S MI and for others as well.

[Clinton]

23 minutes ago, Niko said:

Could this be the big one for many that have not seen one yet this winter??!!

Lets discuss...looking like a fun week of excitement in the weather dept. for some.

Thanks for starting a thread, I didn't want to jinx it for anybody lol.  Getting Winter weather around here has been tough, hope this one pans out.  Trends today look good for us.

[KTPmidMO]

18z GEFS 10:1 mean. Nice hit for my area. Not sure the last time I've seen the GEFS put out that high of totals for my area. Hopefully the trend continues into this week. This winter has been a little bit of a dud in my area. 

[KTPmidMO]

Does anyone here have access to all the ensemble members for the GEFS and can post them? Please and thank you.

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

Thanks for starting a thread, I didn't want to jinx it for anybody lol.  Getting Winter weather around here has been tough, hope this one pans out.  Trends today look good for us.

Haha, and @Niko beat me to it. I was ready to bite on this. Would be nice if it could be a wealth sharing system for KC/ORD/DTW and some others along the way. Btw, gorgeous 50F March wx here this pm.

[Stacsh]

4 hours ago, Niko said:

Could this be the big one for many that have not seen one yet this winter??!!

Lets discuss...looking like a fun week of excitement in the weather dept. for some.

I doubt it 

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, KTPmidMO said:

Does anyone here have access to all the ensemble members for the GEFS and can post them? Please and thank you.

#4 or #16 would make more than a few Peeps happy:

[jaster220]

6 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

I doubt it 

Appreciate the optimism. You know one of these times it's gonna happen. I'd prefer to just ignore all the model mayhem and wait until it IS happening. So much more satisfying. That's what happened with this last-minute ISW. With the Jan storm, it just seemed like we tracked that thing forever! Run after run after run. The good thing was it stayed consistent. But while it did increase amounts ever so slightly, it didn't explode into a BD, just remained a decent system the way it began it's cyber life. 

[Hoosier]

Imagine if we had a stronger surface high to the north with this low.  Good Lord.  I mean it will be windy as is but just think.

[jaster220]

13 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

I doubt it 

Usually, a storm taking a track like shown has a fairly low ceiling. There are few rare exceptions so can't totally take it off the table. 

[jaster220]

Just now, Hoosier said:

Imagine if we had a stronger surface high to the north with this low.  Good Lord.  I mean it will be windy as is but just think.

Can you put in a request for one, lol. I will say that 12/23-24 delivered on the winds here (rare), so there's at least some precedent this season. 2/15/21 had decent winds as well for SMI. 

[jaster220]

EPS had a mean SLP in the mid-980's

 

[Money]

Icon huge move SE compared to previous runs 

[Money]

GFS on the other hand looks like it wants to go north compared to previous runs 

[Money]

GFS

[Clinton]

0z Euro

EPS 

[Clinton]

6z GFS

6z GEFS a step back after a promising 0z run.

0z run

 

[Tom]

This system is certainly NOT lacking in the precip dept, however, we may be having to deal with warm temps at the onset but that'll not be an issue once it matures and creates its own cold air.  Kinda sucks there isn't a stronger Arctic HP to our north, but hey, beggers can't be choosers in what has been a lack luster snow season.

0z Euro Control...

[Tom]

0z EPS mean SLP track...classic cutter up the S MW/OHV...

[Black Hole]

This one is winding up just as it passes my area. Most models show little to no snow here, though a few ensemble members have a couple inches. We do get a bit of a push of cold air right ahead of it as a northerly pressure gradient briefly sets up. If that is underdone it could be beneficial for increasing snow chances but for now I've been burned enough times I am just mostly wanting to watch and wait. 

[tStacsh]

12 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Usually, a storm taking a track like shown has a fairly low ceiling. There are few rare exceptions so can't totally take it off the table. 

I'm trying not to even track this one.  It's currently too far south for me, but could still render some impacts here.  That said, I don't want it.  I want spring lol.  But if it moves a little north and hits, I'll be ok with that as well.  I think we warm up after the first week of March, so this could be winters last big push.  

[tStacsh]

The faster the models move that first wave ahead of the storm off to the east, the more it cuts north.  

[Clinton]

6z Euro Control 

[Clinton]

6z EPS looks pretty good 

[MIKEKC]

NAM's take....only goes out 84 hours to 6:00pm Thursday, low pressure looks like it's in a nice spot on this run to hit KC later Thursday night. 

[MKEstorm]

27 minutes ago, Clinton said:

6z Euro Control 

Wait! What?!?!

[tStacsh]

10 minutes ago, MKEstorm said:

Wait! What?!?!

 I really think the medium range has really struggle this year on models.  Very active pattern this winter.  Lot's of moving parts.  Tough to nail down any track 4-7 days out.  I'm punting on this storm until at least wednesday. 

[MKEstorm]

47 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

 I really think the medium range has really struggle this year on models.  Very active pattern this winter.  Lot's of moving parts.  Tough to nail down any track 4-7 days out.  I'm punting on this storm until at least wednesday. 

Well, I noticed something was weird when recent op runs of the Euro and GFS had this storm well to the south..whereas the GEFS and EPS were well north of the ops! So, I knew something had to give. We’ll see what transpires the next few days. But ya, probably not a good idea to get that invested yet.

[Hawkeye]

I've been watching the models, but this system has been so far south I never considered it to be of any concern to Iowans.

Um... 12z GFS

[bud2380]

8 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

I've been watching the models, but this system has been so far south I never considered it to be of any concern to Iowans.

Um... 12z GFS

Starts out as a little mixed precip here as well before changing over.  The SLP path is almost perfect for our neck of the woods.  I wondered if we would see a shift NW considering how much further NW the ensembles were from the operational model.  Both on the Euro and GFS.  

[tStacsh]

GEM moved way NW as well.  The trend is definitely north.  If we could average out the models right now this would be a Chicagoland special.  long way to go.  

 

[Hoosier]

24 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

I've been watching the models, but this system has been so far south I never considered it to be of any concern to Iowans.

Um... 12z GFS

Come on, can't I have this one?  

[bud2380]

Ukie joining the NW trend.

 

[ATW]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

6z EPS looks pretty good 

The trend is north. Marginal temps. Not Impressed.

 

[bud2380]

Wow, the GEFS went crazy.

 

[Tom]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

6z EPS looks pretty good 

I'm afraid this has eyes even farther north, esp with a phasing/deepening Low with no real artic HP to our north..

[james1976]

I'll be in IA with my magnet out

[gosaints]

The southeast ridge is quite strong.

[Money]

12z euro gonna go way NW compared to 0z

[Tom]

If your in Chicago area and points south, this is not a good trend...on the flip side, if your in the MKE area and points NW of N IL this is your friend...

[bud2380]

Euro jumped NW, but still well SE of the GFS and the ensembles.

 

[Iowawx]

Overall, the trend is looking pretty good for Eastern Iowa. Still a little ways out but NW trend is real and could be a nice storm around here.

Local mets are not sold on this at all. Only a 20% chance of snow for Friday.... 

[gimmesnow]

Dang I'm kind of reeling this one in here. I thought it was going way south. Been disappointed by these before, hope it doesn't go that way again.

[Hoosier]

This could be a problem for trees/powerlines wherever the snow band is.  Likely to be a paste job with good winds.  Also need to watch the ice potential.

[Hawkeye]

12z EPS

[bud2380]

EPS way NW of the op still

 

[Hoosier]

37 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

12z EPS

No guarantees but with the spread looking like that, may be more likely to see a nw shift.

[hlcater]

2 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

12z EPS

Big cluster of members near Hannibal likely bring the goods here.

[bud2380]

NWS model blend looks a lot like the EPS and GEFS