January 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Andie]

[Minny_Weather]

Unexpected, blinding fog has randomly popped up in the past hour or so. Just went to fill up my car for the drive to Fargo tomorrow, and I couldn't see even 100 feet in front of me. Hoping this doesn't create issues on the roads tomorrow morning.

[snowstorm83]

Well suddenly the GFS is like 10 degrees warmer for the weekend cold snap.

[Iowawx]

GFS shows next system with snow starting in Iowa Monday Afternoon. 

[jcwxguy]

Cmc

[Money]

Storm after storm in the long range gfs

[Clinton]

Cmc

I think this is a little to far south, but this fits.

[Tom]

As a winter wx enthusiast, and I huge fan of tracking winter storm/systems, the forthcoming pattern over the next several weeks is probably as good as it gets for our sub forum.  I'll be honest with ya'll, deep down I had a vision pre-season of something special brewing up for this season.  However, later in December I had my doubts it was going to go towards what I had originally thought, but then the modeling started to change in the extended and now I'm going all in on what will be a historic finish, yes, I said it, my gut and vision going forward along with the data all point towards an absolutely amazing pattern, one of which, in the year's I've tracked modeling/wx I have not experience before for such a long duration.  Sure, there have been "periods", for instance, a week, a few days, or maybe 10-15 days, but the coming weeks, not days, are seriously something I get really giddy bc it lays out a pattern which will impact most, if not all, of our sub whether that be by clippers or major storms in the near future. 

 

With that being said, the storms are coming, and boy are they showing up clearly now in the modeling.  Here we go....

 

A few days ago, using my pattern recognition and several LR forecasting techniques, the next big ticket storm on the calendar is beginning to trend among the modeling early/mid next week (22nd-25th) and this one has that "Bomb" potential I noted before.  Needless to say, the Euro Op/Control and it's ensemble members have been showing more and more members bombing out a storm that tracks across the central states which digs deep into the Gulf states and drives N/NE up towards the GL's region bombing out.  Classic Jan'78 set up and one we can use as an analog going forward.  I'm both intrigued and encouraged that this particular storm has the look to share the wealth again across our sub bc it has a 2-part system with a lead northern stream and a secondary southern wave that may phase into one monstrous system across the eastern Sub.

 

 

It doesn't stop there, b/c the next system I'm looking for is lining up around the 28th-30th, which will probable end up being a strong CO Low and/or TX Panhandle S Plains cutter.  Not to get to far ahead of myself, but the opportunities are there and one has to sit back and appreciate all these opportunities when they do come because this pattern is about as loaded with potential that I can't recall ever seeing or witnessing before.  So, there you are, my 2 cents on this "Hump Day " morning!

[Tom]

Here we go again, models are busting in the extended period with regard to the PNA. I've shown this tool many times early in the season and in recent days, whereby, if you look at the GEFS 10mb hieghts instead of it's own 500mb maps, one can more accurately predict or forecast where to expect ridges/troughs to end up.  With that being said, both GEFS/EPS are lining up a good -PNA signal next week, all awhile, we have extensive high lat blocking in place.

 

Here are the Day 10 & 14 GEFS 10mb heights and one will quickly notice the higher heights across the Southern states and up the EC.  This is a classic signal for a -PNA in the extended and one which will produce favorable conditions for storms to roll through our sub.  All of this makes sense to me in extended, the LRC agrees with this particular pattern, as well as, the rise in the ENSO 1.2 region...yet again....the entire E PAC is largely growing warmer.

 

 

 

 

[james1976]

I cant believe how many storms/clippers there are on the GFS. It's literally about every 2 days.

[westMJim]

There was some light freezing mist and snow here overnight no where near as much ice as yesterday morning and thus the roads are much better. So far this winter season the name of the game has been mild temperatures and very little snow fall. Here we are at January 16 and here are some snow fall totals for Grand Rapids at this point. For January the snow fall has been just 1.1” so far Since December 1^st the total is just 4.3” and for the season to date just 18.7” Grand Rapids is now almost 2 feet below average snow fall this winter. It is generally cloudy here now but the clouds are thinning out and it should clear out soon. The temperature has been dropping here and is now down to 29.4° it was at 32.2 when I woke up.

[westMJim]

It now looks assured that much of the central US will get colder over the coming days and I am sure with the colder air around there will be some snow. The question is just how much? Here in Michigan the set up will NOT be good for lake effect snow for the week or so. As the cold air is too shallow and the wind direction is too much out of the north, 

[gosaints]

As a winter wx enthusiast, and I huge fan of tracking winter storm/systems, the forthcoming pattern over the next several weeks is probably as good as it gets for our sub forum. I'll be honest with ya'll, deep down I had a vision pre-season of something special brewing up for this season. However, later in December I had my doubts it was going to go towards what I had originally thought, but then the modeling started to change in the extended and now I'm going all in on what will be a historic finish, yes, I said it, my gut and vision going forward along with the data all point towards an absolutely amazing pattern, one of which, in the year's I've tracked modeling/wx I have not experience before for such a long duration. Sure, there have been "periods", for instance, a week, a few days, or maybe 10-15 days, but the coming weeks, not days, are seriously something I get really giddy bc it lays out a pattern which will impact most, if not all, of our sub whether that be by clippers or major storms in the near future.

 

With that being said, the storms are coming, and boy are they showing up clearly now in the modeling. Here we go....

 

A few days ago, using my pattern recognition and several LR forecasting techniques, the next big ticket storm on the calendar is beginning to trend among the modeling early/mid next week (22nd-25th) and this one has that "Bomb" potential I noted before. Needless to say, the Euro Op/Control and it's ensemble members have been showing more and more members bombing out a storm that tracks across the central states which digs deep into the Gulf states and drives N/NE up towards the GL's region bombing out. Classic Jan'78 set up and one we can use as an analog going forward. I'm both intrigued and encouraged that this particular storm has the look to share the wealth again across our sub bc it has a 2-part system with a lead northern stream and a secondary southern wave that may phase into one monstrous system across the eastern Sub.

 

 

It doesn't stop there, b/c the next system I'm looking for is lining up around the 28th-30th, which will probable end up being a strong CO Low and/or TX Panhandle S Plains cutter. Not to get to far ahead of myself, but the opportunities are there and one has to sit back and appreciate all these opportunities when they do come because this pattern is about as loaded with potential that I can't recall ever seeing or witnessing before. So, there you are, my 2 cents on this "Hump Day " morning!

definitely looking better. The one worry I have however is the pace at which flow continues. Gonna be hard to get big dogs, but more defined storms chances will be a pleasant change.

[Tom]

definitely looking better. The one worry I have however is the pace at which flow continues. Gonna be hard to get big dogs, but more defined storms chances will be a pleasant change.

The 22nd-25th seems like a good set up for a Bid Dog. Pattern slows down considerably and blocks up for a time.

[Stacsh]

Are we buying the Euro for next week? because wow.

[Andie]

I still have a bit of hope. The 45 day break from December to now killed me but if I understand correctly, I'll be ok soon. I really hope I see snow for all this crazy cold that's coming.

Hope you see it. I need a weekend on the 26th. (Thurs-Mon) to get out of No Tx make it to Az for a major family funeral. No snow please. Not yet for the DFW area.

[Tom]

I don't think our sub has ever tracked 2 winter storms alongside each other.  Well, it may be a season of firsts, today's 12z GFS suggesting a Blizzard (40-50 mph gusts) taking shape across the Plains and tracking towards the Lower Lakes early next week.  The potential and explosiveness is there my friends.

 

 

[Stacsh]

I don't think our sub has ever tracked 2 winter storms alongside each other.  Well, it may be a season of firsts, today's 12z GFS suggesting a Blizzard (40-50 mph gusts) taking shape across the Plains and tracking towards the Lower Lakes early next week.  The potential and explosiveness is there my friends.

 

This one (signal wise) is VERY interesting.  GRR already talking about it.  

[Tom]

This one (signal wise) is VERY interesting. GRR already talking about it.

Yes, I’ve been talking about it for a few days as well. Hopefully we can all share in the excitement of tracking this one.

[Stormhunter87]

Oh yeah definitely liking the next storm.

[Money]

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019011612&fh=234&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_acc&m=gfs

 

Solid

[Niko]

My forecast looks insane w that storm next week. It definitely has my attn.

[Niko]

Turned out to be a mostly sunny day w seasonably cold conditions after an icy, slippery start to the morning.

[Hawkeye]

Euro had two straight runs with a blizzard next week for the western lakes.  This morning's run, nada... just a weaker system passing south.

[Stacsh]

Euro had two straight runs with a blizzard next week for the western lakes.  This morning's run, nada... just a weaker system passing south.

 

Yep.  Very disappointed to see it almost completely disappear after a couple consistent runs.  Oh well.  

[Money]

So I’ll just leave this here

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019011618&fh=192&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_acc&m=gfs

[hlcater]

The 18z GFS is extremely snowy. Widespread 20+ inches through D8.

[Niko]

Next week looks insane weatherwise.

[jaster220]

Here we go again, models are busting in the extended period with regard to the PNA. I've shown this tool many times early in the season and in recent days, whereby, if you look at the GEFS 10mb hieghts instead of it's own 500mb maps, one can more accurately predict or forecast where to expect ridges/troughs to end up.  With that being said, both GEFS/EPS are lining up a good -PNA signal next week, all awhile, we have extensive high lat blocking in place.

 

Here are the Day 10 & 14 GEFS 10mb heights and one will quickly notice the higher heights across the Southern states and up the EC.  This is a classic signal for a -PNA in the extended and one which will produce favorable conditions for storms to roll through our sub.  All of this makes sense to me in extended, the LRC agrees with this particular pattern, as well as, the rise in the ENSO 1.2 region...yet again....the entire E PAC is largely growing warmer.

 

 

 

 

 

Thx for this Tom. All looks exciting but if I have one concern it would be the rising ENSO 1.2 region as that seems to be what led to the demise of our early cold spell or is the timing coincidental and not the root cause? Tracking the chart there would seem to a correlation to my eye. Noting it's continued rise and the burgeoning SER at 10 mb's has me questioning the 30-Jan scenario. Looks like the mean "storm track" would be way NW for the sub in general. Not unlike those systems during the warm spell that hit MN Arrowhead. Thoughts about what may or may not be different this time around that could mitigate my fears?

[Niko]

Currently at 18F w mostly cloudy skies.

[Grizzcoat]

When is the last time anyone saw San Francisco have winds gusting to 61mph??

 

KSFO 170118Z 17030G53KT 10SM -RA FEW017 SCT028 OVC100 17/11 A2972 RMK AO2 PK WND 16053/0113 RAB11 P0000 T01720111

[Tom]

Thx for this Tom. All looks exciting but if I have one concern it would be the rising ENSO 1.2 region as that seems to be what led to the demise of our early cold spell or is the timing coincidental and not the root cause? Tracking the chart there would seem to a correlation to my eye. Noting it's continued rise and the burgeoning SER at 10 mb's has me questioning the 30-Jan scenario. Looks like the mean "storm track" would be way NW for the sub in general. Not unlike those systems during the warm spell that hit MN Arrowhead. Thoughts about what may or may not be different this time around that could mitigate my fears?

You see, back in December we lacked high lat blocking and a -EPO.  What I am expecting is to heavily weigh the blocking and -EPO that'll allow the cold to penetrate, unlike we had back in December.  When looking at those 10mb heights, you have to consider how strong that ridge will play out as a forecaster and weigh the various teleconnections.  I wouldn't worry to much about the SER being extremely strong with such strong indications of a -AO/-EPO.

[Tom]

Winter is here to stay...I haven't seen so many days with "snow" worded in my detailed forecast in a very long time....it's finally nice to see we have turned the corner.

 

Detailed Forecast

Tonight

A 20 percent chance of snow after 5am. Cloudy, with a low around 27. East wind 5 to 10 mph.

Thursday

A 30 percent chance of snow, mainly before 11am. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Calm wind becoming west northwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.

Thursday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. West northwest wind around 5 mph.

Friday

A 20 percent chance of snow after noon. Increasing clouds, with a high near 29. North northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon.

Friday Night

Snow. Low around 24. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Saturday

Snow. High near 27. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Saturday Night

A 40 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 13.

Sunday

A chance of snow showers before noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 17.

Sunday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 3.

M.L.King Day

A chance of snow, mainly after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 19.

Monday Night

A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 15.

Tuesday

A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 25.

Tuesday Night

Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19.

Wednesday

A chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 27.

[snowstorm83]

Getting some light snow right now. Pretty flakes.

[Niko]

Temps are dropping fast. Already down to 16F. Clouds moving in later tanite will stop temps from falling too much.

[Niko]

My extended forecast is looking crazy...geez...

[jaster220]

local AFD from earlier today

 

 

Another storm arrives by Tuesday and the ingredients are there for
a significant snowstorm, especially across the southern half of
Lower Michigan. Fairly good run to run consistency so far with
this storm especially in the GFS, which hopefully will continue.

 

If Sat's system isn't as big as once shown, the consolation prize is not having to wait another 10 days for a chance

[jaster220]

My extended forecast has looking crazy...geez...

 

(T)he (W)hatever sells ©hannel again?? Pls post for posterity and/or humor so I can share in your jovial mood

[Niko]

Next weeks storm is looking mighty juicy........I think there might even be another storm towards month end. Back to back storms on the horizon.

[Grizzcoat]