Madtown Posted January 21, 2019 Report Share Posted January 21, 2019 No rain please! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 21, 2019 Report Share Posted January 21, 2019 Temps are holding at a frigid 11F w partly cloudy skies. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 21, 2019 Report Share Posted January 21, 2019 Can these two phase pls. If so, we will be looking at another 78' Blitz. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 21, 2019 Report Share Posted January 21, 2019 The 12z GFS rains on Iowa three times over the next 16 days.These NW flow patterns seem to rarely be good for us. What it really gives us a chance to do is rev up the surface low magnet and either get rain, drizzle or dryslotted. Then we get dumped on by frigid air with a crust of snow or bare ground. Not ideal. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 21, 2019 Report Share Posted January 21, 2019 18Z HRRR is a good hit in Central Nebraska. Solid 3-6" and a stripe of fairly heavy snow, though very thin. Should be fun tracking this in the next 24 hours or so. Even if we only get a couple of inches, we could potentially have some blizzard conditions if the winds can hit 40-50 MPH gusts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 3 runs in a row gfs showing that strong clipper GGEM showing it as well and we’re starting to get in the medium range Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 3 runs in a row gfs showing that strong clipper GGEM showing it as well and we’re starting to get in the medium rangeYeah 0z GFS looks a bit more SW from 18z. Two other weak clippers cross IA fri and again sat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 Gfs through 240 with another system in WI after... http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019012200&fh=240&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_acc&m=gfs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 A clipper is still on track to drop 1-2" of snow through Iowa Friday. The Euro is still robust with the Sunday/Monday clipper, but looks a bit better for MN/WI and points ese/e. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 Happy Tuesday and Storm Tracking! There's a saying, "Patience Pays Off"....well, in the wx dept, if your a fan of winter wx, your patience IS paying off this winter season. The quote below basically explains how this Winter started off: December = Bitter, January = Bitter...then, Sweet??? Once we get passed our winter storm today/tomorrow, we will be locked into a NW Flow pattern Week 1-2 along with key blocking patterns that will keep the MW/GL's region in the hot spot for Clippers to track. It looks like models have somewhat backed off the intensity on the Fri/Sat Clipper, but the Euro still lays down a couple inches across parts of E IA/IL/N IN. Following this system, our attention turns to a stronger Clipper that takes a track across the Upper MW/MW and pivots/digs/strengthens as it heads towards the GL's. I've been looking for one of these systems to track across our northern half of the Sub all season long and I think this is going to happen. This particular system has my attention and esp those across MN/WI/MI/N IL/N IN who are in the potential "high impact zone". If the 00z Euro and GFS are right, the Jan '19 Glacier continues to build across the same places that have been getting hit repeatedly. Could this pattern be for real??? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 Diving into the longer range pattern, confidence continues to grow that the overall "base state" will shift into a La Nina pattern as the mechanisms of the North American pattern "shift" into a dominant SW Flow heading into Week 2, but does this last or is this a "transitional period??? It was a good call long ago to look for a SER even though the modeling was steadfast at parking an EC trough. However, if one believes that the 10mb heights maps provide more value at determining LR forecasting than the 500mb maps, then I think this will provide another score or win in that dept. Keeping that in mind, the SER is going to be a dominant player as we finish off this month and open Feb for our Sub Forum. We will remain entrenched in a very active storm track and nearly every model is showing this to be true. Look for the models to trend wetter as open up Feb but I think we will leave that discussion once we start a separate thread. The Key drivers heading into early Feb that will help aid a wintry pattern across the heartland will be the stout high lat Blocking which we did NOT have as the major mid-warming Stratospheric Event was transpiring in December. Check out the Arctic blocking off the 00z GEFS...along with somewhat of a Greenland Block. The SOI remains in a (+) state, as well as, the MJO in Phase 5/6 heading into Week which keep the ridge off the EC. 00z GEFS 10mb heights show this nicely....but does it last??? I'll dive into the Feb pattern a little later.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 Temps are currently at 14F w cloudy skies and under a WWA for couple of inches of snow, switching to ice and then plain rain. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 22, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 We're starting to actually plummet to below normal on the month, after the stupidly warm start. Of course, Ken Dewey is MAKING SURE to remind us that weather isn't climate. Dr. Dewey used to be a nice source for Lincoln climate info, but recently he's gone off the deep end and is now a full-blown AGW fear mongerer. Can't have below normal temps without him reminding everyone that temps are above normal in other parts of the globe. He's losing his credibility fast. Sorry for the rant. Just hate when people try to use weather as a political platform. 5 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 The morning model runs are a mixed bag with regard to the strong Monday clipper. The GFS/GFS-FV3 shifted south into Iowa, but the UK and Euro are farther northeast. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 The morning model runs are a mixed bag with regard to the strong Monday clipper. The GFS/GFS-FV3 shifted south into Iowa, but the UK and Euro are farther northeast.I dont wanna be in the bullseye. I was with these last 2 storms and it didn't come close to panning out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 LoL MKX already added heavy snow wording for Sunday night and Monday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 LoL MKX already added heavy snow wording for Sunday night and Monday Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 The GFS and GFS-FV3 are losing the weak Friday clipper, although the UK still has it. However, all three are nailing Iowa with the strong Sunday night/Monday clipper. The UK was farther north, but moved south to where the GFSs have been. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 By the time Sunday night and Monday roll around the system will either be in Canada or Mexico. I'm not getting sucked in again lol 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 The 00z Euro shifted well south as well. It has a 995 mb low tracking from Nebraska to Indiana. It's too bad it's still five days out. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 Wow. This euro run is even better than I thought. It shows what may be the greatest clipper of all time for the I-80 corridor from Iowa eastward. 4 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 Wow. This euro run is even better than I thought. It shows what may be the greatest clipper of all time for the I-80 corridor from Iowa eastward.Widespread 15-20+" for the uninitiated. The clipper to crown them all lol. 2 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 I hate the hockey teams from Alberta, but they can send their clippers all the time if they end up like what the King Euro is showing!! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 The euro follows it with -30s and -40s across Iowa. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 We're starting to actually plummet to below normal on the month, after the stupidly warm start. Of course, Ken Dewey is MAKING SURE to remind us that weather isn't climate. Dr. Dewey used to be a nice source for Lincoln climate info, but recently he's gone off the deep end and is now a full-blown AGW fear mongerer. Can't have below normal temps without him reminding everyone that temps are above normal in other parts of the globe. He's losing his credibility fast. Sorry for the rant. Just hate when people try to use weather as a political platform.+100 Nice post. The AGW's switched from Global Warning to Climate Change because they deep down realized AGW is full of it-- buy using Climte Change they get to argue what they think ALL the time. Weather isn't climate is BS. Without weather there would be no ClimateS (emphasized plural). 4 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 The euro follows it with -30s and -40s across Iowa.Never seem a Euro run like that ever. Doesn't mean its got to happen - but wowsers ; what potential. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 The globe is most certainly warming. There’s plenty empirical data to support that hypothesis. For me, the issue is what to do about it. This isn’t a politics forum so I’m just not gonna get into that... 2 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 ^ I'am not saying the globe isnt warming. Just why? Natural? or Human caused? or a mix of both and if so- how is that figured out to what extent what is causing what? To me- (20+ years making a living in the weather/climate field) it comes down to rising ocean temps emitting more water vapor. https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/climatescience/climatesciencenarratives/its-water-vapor-not-the-co2.html Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 Did some digging. Last time Des Moines had a double digit snow depth was Feb 2 2015...at 10 inches. That's a long time for somewhere this far north. I think they'll be over the threshold today, finally. I am at 11 just SW of the airport 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 16 day GFS and other garbage we all have seen similar maps. But has anyone seen a 7 day EURO look like this?? For the Midwest? Heck the Windy City has more snow the Rockies. Of course this counts in the current event unfolding; but still very impressive. 4 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 The Clipper featured in Rudoplh the Rednosed Reindeer-- "And than it hit"-- 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 This is also worthy- just imagine the hardship this would cause here in C.IA- really most places. This is BRUTAL. ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: LAT = 41.60 LON = -93.88 00Z JAN23 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THKWED 00Z 23-JAN -5.5 -6.6 1017 89 97 0.00 548 535 WED 06Z 23-JAN -8.3 -8.7 1017 86 91 0.19 544 531 WED 12Z 23-JAN -10.0 -11.1 1018 84 96 0.12 538 524 WED 18Z 23-JAN -10.9 -6.4 1018 80 33 0.01 539 525 THU 00Z 24-JAN -13.1 -5.3 1015 82 74 0.00 538 526 THU 06Z 24-JAN -11.3 -5.5 1014 80 57 0.00 538 527 THU 12Z 24-JAN -5.0 -9.2 1017 82 38 0.00 536 522 THU 18Z 24-JAN -12.8 -14.9 1027 70 8 0.00 532 512 FRI 00Z 25-JAN -16.9 -20.4 1029 69 32 0.00 527 505 FRI 06Z 25-JAN -22.9 -17.9 1031 73 19 0.00 529 506 FRI 12Z 25-JAN -24.3 -14.6 1027 73 20 0.00 532 511 FRI 18Z 25-JAN -14.3 -8.9 1022 73 100 0.00 534 517 SAT 00Z 26-JAN -13.2 -11.6 1022 81 15 0.00 533 516 SAT 06Z 26-JAN -21.3 -12.8 1027 80 24 0.00 534 513 SAT 12Z 26-JAN -24.9 -12.1 1026 85 49 0.00 533 514 SAT 18Z 26-JAN -12.1 -8.6 1020 81 91 0.03 535 520 SUN 00Z 27-JAN -4.7 -6.9 1013 83 75 0.00 537 526 SUN 06Z 27-JAN -3.8 -5.1 1010 94 94 0.10 535 527 SUN 12Z 27-JAN -9.4 -7.5 1015 82 82 0.02 537 526 SUN 18Z 27-JAN -14.5 -7.9 1019 69 45 0.01 542 528 MON 00Z 28-JAN -15.4 -4.1 1013 77 94 0.04 542 532 MON 06Z 28-JAN -14.6 -2.5 1009 84 93 0.09 540 533 MON 12Z 28-JAN -16.6 -7.2 1009 82 90 0.28 535 528 MON 18Z 28-JAN -15.2 -16.8 1015 80 92 0.11 530 519 TUE 00Z 29-JAN -16.7 -20.9 1020 77 99 0.02 526 511 TUE 06Z 29-JAN -20.5 -21.8 1023 75 87 0.01 522 505 TUE 12Z 29-JAN -22.5 -22.8 1025 73 98 0.00 519 501 TUE 18Z 29-JAN -21.1 -25.1 1026 68 28 0.00 514 494 WED 00Z 30-JAN -23.5 -26.7 1027 68 65 0.00 509 489 WED 06Z 30-JAN -28.1 -27.7 1027 68 78 0.00 508 488 WED 12Z 30-JAN -32.7 -27.9 1027 74 91 0.00 507 488 WED 18Z 30-JAN -29.7 -25.7 1028 73 47 0.00 508 488 THU 00Z 31-JAN -30.9 -26.6 1031 75 53 0.00 510 488 THU 06Z 31-JAN -33.9 -25.9 1033 70 12 0.00 521 497 THU 12Z 31-JAN -38.5 -22.5 1035 70 15 0.00 530 506 THU 18Z 31-JAN -32.2 -21.4 1038 69 57 0.00 535 508 FRI 00Z 01-FEB -28.9 -17.7 1036 71 99 0.00 536 510 FRI 06Z 01-FEB -28.1 -16.9 1039 72 66 0.00 540 513 FRI 12Z 01-FEB -30.1 -15.0 1040 73 59 0.00 543 515 FRI 18Z 01-FEB -25.7 -13.0 1042 68 57 0.00 546 516 SAT 00Z 02-FEB -25.1 -11.7 1040 72 86 0.00 546 517 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 WTH?? That would the clipper of all time followed by insane cold. Not getting sucked in though. Too far out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 My goodness, that 00z Euro run is a "Dream Clipper Track" for N IL...temps starting off in the single digits and climbing into the low/mid 10's, well over 1" qpf, Lehs followed by LES...one can dream if it were to come true. For your viewing pleasure....I also attached a snow depth map...just friggin' crazy... Post Clipper, looks like the Euro wants to drop the "Polar Vortex Party" with a stretch of days not rising above 0F for a couple days or more around the MW. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 Yeah I wonder what ratios would be. Some serious fluff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VMB443 Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 My goodness, that 00z Euro run is a "Dream Clipper Track" for N IL...temps starting off in the single digits and climbing into the low/mid 10's, well over 1" qpf, Lehs followed by LES...one can dream if it were to come true. For your viewing pleasure....I also attached a snow depth map...just friggin' crazy... Post Clipper, looks like the Euro wants to drop the "Polar Vortex Party" with a stretch of days not rising above 0F for a couple days or more around the MW.This winter is going from pitiful to awesome pretty quickly here! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 My goodness, that 00z Euro run is a "Dream Clipper Track" for N IL...temps starting off in the single digits and climbing into the low/mid 10's, well over 1" qpf, Lehs followed by LES...one can dream if it were to come true. For your viewing pleasure....I also attached a snow depth map...just friggin' crazy... Post Clipper, looks like the Euro wants to drop the "Polar Vortex Party" with a stretch of days not rising above 0F for a couple days or more around the MW.Congrats Tom! Good luck to everyone that is going to score with this. Looks like a nice hit for many of you. Wow. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 Folks, the Jan '19 "Heartland Snow Blitz" is about to turn into high gear. I've spent a good amount of time this morning digesting overnight data and models are in remarkable agreement that the same areas which are seeing snow today will be in the vicinity of the heaviest snow band late this weekend into the early part of next week. The wx pattern setting up over the next 10 days is a Winter Wx enthusiasts Dream if you Love the Vicious Arctic cold and numerous chances of snow! IMO, we are about to enter a Historic stretch, one I felt would eventually come later this month and the models are certainly painting the picture and dialing in smack dab in the heartland of the nation. Deep down inside, I had this good feeling that the MW and areas nearby would be in the ideal local to be placed in the hot spot of where this Winter would turn very cold/snowy. If indeed the models are right and the LR modeling, this pattern is about as loaded and locked for a longgg duration wintry period. Not to mention, there is a "pullback" or relaxation showing up late in Week 2 but I'll dive into that a bit later on. As mentioned above, there is a strong indication that a powerful PAC wave driving S/SE out of SE Canada late this weekend and tracking right through the MW....slowly pivoting the region as an ideal Blocking Pattern sets up across the N ATL and just N of the GL's region across SE Canada to deliver another 'bout of possibly significant snows. I've started a storm thread for this potential....http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1947-jan-27th-29th-potential-strong-clipper/ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 Congrats Tom! Good luck to everyone that is going to score with this. Looks like a nice hit for many of you. Wow.Thanks my man, even though it was one of those insanely runs I've ever seen, the reality is, it is just a computer model run. Although, my attn is there for a walloping Clipper and I like where I sit ATM. Man, but the vicious cold that is lurking next week is scary. I have never witnessed -20F or colder temps and both the GFS/Euro are suggesting near all-time record cold. That's dangerous cold for many of us on here. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 The pattern setting up reminds me a bit of '13-'14 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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