PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)

[TT-SEA]

44 minutes ago, westcoastexpat said:

Speaking of radiation, an analysis was done for radiation this winter - looks like Western WA actually was slightly less sunny than normal this winter? Nearly one full standard deviation cloudier than normal.

Wonder how they measure that so specifically for everywhere?  Anecdotally it felt like a sunnier than normal winter in my area.

[TT-SEA]

37 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

NWS Seattle literally has a probability chart for everything nowadays.

That is just so stupid.  

[bainbridgekid]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That is just so stupid.  

A 2% chance Bremerton hits 60. Is there also a 2% chance it’s 40 degrees? Who knows! Dumb chart.

[Cold Snap]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That is just so stupid.  

Yeah for snowfall I feel like percentage charts are good but for temps not so much especially when it’s a probability chart for 60 degrees.

[Winterdog]

Had a 55/25F day today.  I'd say I have a 58% of another freeze tonight.  Currently 49F.

[SunAndSnow]

31/62 today and the frogs are back- Spring is here!

[Deweydog]

Breezy!

[MossMan]

40 minutes ago, SunAndSnow said:

31/62 today and the frogs are back- Spring is here!

Boating season is just around the corner! 

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 hours ago, Deweydog said:

Breezy!

Warmest night of the year to date??

[Deweydog]

14 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Warmest night of the year to date??

Fitty here.

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Fitty here.

52 here. If it’s still windy at your place there must be some downsloping.

[TT-SEA]

2 hours ago, MossMan said:

Boating season is just around the corner! 

 

I thought I will just watch a couple of these... could not stop.  20 minutes gone.  Some of those were so painful to watch.  

[Phil]

Increasing +AAM integral on the latest EPS weeklies.

[Phil]

Looks like the SSW occurred too early to be the final warming. But it effectively ended the strong winter state of the PV. Static final warming to occur next month.

[Deweydog]

9 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

52 here. If it’s still windy at your place there must be some downsloping.

Still a breeze but it was rolling pretty good a couple hours ago.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

37.5˚F here. Looks like another frosty morning tomorrow.

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF holds off the rain for the Seattle area until Sunday evening for another nice day.    But that next trough really bypasses western WA to the west and then south on this run with Monday - Wednesday being partly cloudy and fairly dry with temps into the 50s.    CA is in the crosshairs again. 

[TT-SEA]

The next trough later next week is colder and wetter.    Temps struggle to get out of the 40s by Thursday and Friday on this run.   That trough also makes a beeline for the desert SW but does not stay offshore as it moves by WA like the first one.

[Dan the Weatherman]

9 hours ago, Phil said:

That precip forecast will probably bust in the SW US.

I agree. It has been a very active season in CA and even Socal has been getting significant rains and another big storm is likely for next week. The frequency of storms will likely decrease in April, but I feel CA, including Socal, will get at least average rainfall for the month, and even perhaps above average.

[TT-SEA]

48 in North Bend this morning... and 27 in Olympia.   Wind prone vs wind protected.

[TT-SEA]

And the 06Z GFS shows a significant snow event for next weekend.

[T-Town]

14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And the 06Z GFS shows a significant snow event for next weekend.

An opportunity for some barefoot snow shoveling for those who are so inclined. 

[Doinko]

Down to 32 at Hillsboro, 38 at PDX. 44 here

[SilverFallsAndrew]

34 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And the 06Z GFS shows a significant snow event for next weekend.

It would seem a lot more falls the following 24 hours down here. Very nice trend. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hit 32 again. 17/17 now on the month. Most valley locations got to freezing this morning 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hit 32 again. 17/17 now on the month. Most valley locations got to freezing this morning 

Only 6 out of 17 in North Bend.   And close to 50 this morning.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Only 6 out of 17 in North Bend.   And close to 50 this morning.   

Get that garden in! 5” on the deck still. Though enough of the field has opened up I don’t feel bad about not rushing down with hay and alfalfa the second I get up. 

Edited March 17, 2023 by SilverFallsAndrew

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Get that garden in!

Guessing it will be another late April planting this year.

[Doinko]

15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hit 32 again. 17/17 now on the month. Most valley locations got to freezing this morning 

Corvallis down to 30.

Up to 45 here from a low of 44

[Rubus Leucodermis]

A frosty low of 30.7˚F here.

[MossMan]

55 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And the 06Z GFS shows a significant snow event for next weekend.

It’s coming! 

[snow_wizard]

A very nippy 23 in OLM this morning.  Just one degree short of the record.  Very impressively the record from yesterday was set in 2021, today's is from 2020, and this year threatened both of them.  

I also noticed that their precip deficit for this season is very large percentage wise.  We'll have to see how that situation evolves over the next couple of months.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

It’s coming! 

EPS is on board with that PNA forecast.

There have been a handful of major lowland snow events this late (and later) in the season.

[snow_wizard]

It managed to drop to 35 here during a very brief calm period last night.  My insane streak of lows of 40 or lower continues.

[snow_wizard]

11 hours ago, MossMan said:

Boating season is just around the corner! 

 

That has to be photo shopped.  At least I hope so!

[snow_wizard]

BTW my comment about there having been snow events this late in the season was meant to dovetail with the 6z GFS maps that Tim posted.  I wasn't saying I expect it to happen.

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That has to be photo shopped.  At least I hope so!

It is! But the 80 idiots did not disappoint in the video! 

[MossMan]

34 and very frosty this morning. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

BTW my comment about there having been snow events this late in the season was meant to dovetail with the 6z GFS maps that Tim posted.  I wasn't saying I expect it to happen.

There is a lot of smoke around next weekend, no fire yet, but we will need to keep an eye on it. 

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

There is a lot of smoke around next weekend, no fire yet, but we will need to keep an eye on it. 

There will be a lot of smoke this weekend with the nice weather and everyone itching to burn their windstorm and snowstorm downed branches! Along with their Christmas wrapping paper and possibly a few old tractor tires for good measure.