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PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)


Requiem

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I think late February is peak SAD season in the PNW (except the occasional year where spring comes a month early). Once daylight savings time hits the worst is over. 

The first 2 or 3 winters here didn't bother me but I got pretty severe SAD two winters ago and since then I've hit it with a happy light, D3 supplements, and at least two sunshine trips per winter. I also maintain my outdoor running schedule in the winter. 

The really nice thing about this climate is how early spring hits. I planted a ton of bulbs and hellebores and other stuff that blooms early which makes it feel like it's fully spring by the first or second week of March. 

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2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I don’t really want to get into this again. Don’t want to be banned for having a different viewpoint. I never said depression isn’t real or is easy to overcome. I have struggled with depression before. I just feel like blaming the weather or whatever can be an easy scapegoat when there are probably other underlying problems. I speak for myself when I say this too.

This is reasonable.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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52 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

Not sure if anyone knows about this movie that just came out. You can stream it on Vudu. You can also do it on Amazon Video but the trailer is in Spanish (I think) so I did it on Vudu. It's actually pretty good. 

Supercell-Movie-2023.webp

Is that Timmy driving the van? 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I don’t really want to get into this again. Don’t want to be banned for having a different viewpoint. I never said depression isn’t real or is easy to overcome. I have struggled with depression before. I just feel like blaming the weather or whatever can be an easy scapegoat when there are probably other underlying problems. I speak for myself when I say this too.

SAD is primarily light driven... its a physical thing and not just an opinion on the current weather that you can change.   

You seem to think any negative opinion about our climate is a weakness.  But only when it relates to gloominess.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Clouds don't get to me, it's the 4:20p sunsets.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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EURO ends up blessing us with 14".

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Gorgeous day! My first lunch on the deck for 2023. Currently 57 degrees. Also looking forward to a foot of snow next weekend! 😀

73F2B1DF-FB04-4BF2-A9A4-37F0861F51DE.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Maybe I’m weird but I’ve always liked the early sunsets. The long evenings can be cozy. On the flip side I’ve always enjoyed the super late sunsets on the opposite side of the year too. I enjoy dynamism when it comes to daylight length throughout the year. To me it would be strange living at a lower latitude where daylight length and sun angle are more uniform year round. I realize this is just personal preference though.

I'm a weird anxious, neurotic person, so when I am sitting up awake stemming until 2am, it seems like an even longer ordeal when it's dark the whole time.  

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

Would be an improvement in the snowfall department. How frequent are the thunderstorms, though? The summer rainfall averages look pretty skimpy.

it's basically an alpine like elevation 'island' in a desert so depends on the Monsoon strength 

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A big takeaway from those ensembles Jesse posted earlier, is that this is that these runs are not outliers. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, lowlandsnow said:

Heavy snow with a bullseye right over Mossman's house temps are below freezing to

1679745600-kOm9LgF9wyU.png

1679745600-07bZyM6jpXA.png

Hour 192 at the end of March. I feel like we should probably slow our roll

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PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220

2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events)

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Lots of NW flow on the 12z EPS. Return of the -NAO/-PNA constructive interference pattern.

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foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

I understand this.    In November its expected to be dark and the sun sets early.    Expectations are low.

In April and May its daylight forever and when its really gloomy and dark it feels wrong.    I understand that part of that is climo but that does not change the fact that it feels wrong.   In terms of expectations vs reality... April and May can often be the worst months for me as well.   

A few people on here will mock this of course.   But I know this a pretty common feeling around here in those months.    It is what it is.  

Yeah it was definitely weird last year with the gloominess continuing into June and having it stay bright until 9 on a wintery looking rainy day.

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2024 Warm Season Stats

Number of 80+ days - 16

Number of 85+ days - 12

Number of 90+ days - 3

Number of 95+ days - 2 (Warmest so far - 96)

Number of 60+ lows - 0

 

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Lots of NW flow on the 12z EPS. Return of the -NAO/-PNA constructive interference pattern.

Looks like an active pattern for most of the CONUS.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-0264000.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like an active pattern for most of the CONUS.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-0264000.png

Yep, interestingly similar to the spring pattern during the developmental stages of the 1957/58 El Niño, which also followed a 3 year -ENSO.

4CF0B044-1C8A-4C78-A966-47723B8F3F93.png

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foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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1 minute ago, Cold Snap said:

Looks like about 5” for me!

Based on past history of looking at ECMWF snow maps... I would assume that is basically nothing for King County below 1,500 feet despite it also showing snow in my area.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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11 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Yeah it was definitely weird last year with the gloominess continuing into June and having it stay bright until 9 on a wintery looking rainy day.

You must have moved here within the last five years. Last June was the closest thing to normal we’ve seen in that time.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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The general lack of light in winter here does not cause any issues for me.

What I couldn't stand was the prolonged spells of dry, sunny weather I would get in the Southwest. Being one to sunburn easily, it often made me feel under assault by the natural environment.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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Been a while. Since November? I don’t keep track of temps very well but yeah this will definitely kickstart the spring growth and the pollen. 

4A8EF9B8-1B3A-4244-AC18-1090138956BE.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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The fact subsidence fails to hold along/east of the dateline following the MJO passage confirms the demise of the La Niña background state, assuming the EPS has a decent handle on things.

DE2D4502-E85B-4D60-A427-97D9AA1AAEB6.png

 

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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22 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

You must have moved here within the last five years. Last June was the closest thing to normal we’ve seen in that time.

I’ve lived in WA my entire life but I don’t really remember any of the summers before 2009 but they probably had some nice cool Junes and 2010 and 2011 were some pretty gloomy Junes but since the torchy summers started when I was in middle school I guess I’ve just gotten accustomed to them since I’ve been witnessing them almost half my life.

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2024 Warm Season Stats

Number of 80+ days - 16

Number of 85+ days - 12

Number of 90+ days - 3

Number of 95+ days - 2 (Warmest so far - 96)

Number of 60+ lows - 0

 

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The EPS has a more stable subsidence developing over the eastern Indian Ocean, which is where you’d expect to see it during the early developmental stages of El Niño.

That WWB at 120E will propagate across the dateline during the first half of April.

2C30BEED-F876-4C84-AFAD-C35A45133194.jpeg

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foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Maybe I’m weird but I’ve always liked the early sunsets. The long evenings can be cozy. On the flip side I’ve always enjoyed the super late sunsets on the opposite side of the year too. I enjoy dynamism when it comes to daylight length throughout the year. To me it would be strange living at a lower latitude where daylight length and sun angle are more uniform year round. I realize this is just personal preference though.

I agree.  I don't mind the early sunsets at all.  They are nicely offset by the very late ones in the summer.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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16 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

I’ve lived in WA my entire life but I don’t really remember any of the summers before 2009 but they probably had some nice cool Junes and 2010 and 2011 were some pretty gloomy Junes but since the torchy summers started when I was in middle school I guess I’ve just gotten accustomed to them since I’ve been witnessing them almost half my life.

The change in summer this century has been nothing short of astonishing to this point.  That is bout 90% of the reason for the glacial retreat right now.  The other seasons have mostly been much more in line with the past except for January.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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SEA has finally hit 60... up to 61 now.     63 in North Bend.

Also interesting that Bremerton is at 61 despite the unbelievably low odds of 2% to reach 60 degrees.  😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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