Esquimalt Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 Probably not so much for Esquimalt’s location but most of Vancouver Island actually does better for snowfall when the systems approach from the SW. easterly flow and heavier precip rates. In NW flow we get shadowed and the SE winds ahead of the front scour out the cold quite quicklyHow do the euro snow maps look? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 How do the euro snow maps look?Not updated far enough yet. For southern Vancouver Island, the GFS, was basically a best case scenario run, considering a lack of continental air available Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 Not updated far enough yet. For southern Vancouver Island, the GFS, was basically a best case scenario run, considering a lack of continental air availableThe fv3 has been showing a solution very similar to the GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 How do the euro snow maps look?Not even worth looking. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 You guys are the experts in interpreting the models. I would really appreciate if you guys'd tell me about the status of the various storms in next week's complex setup It’s not all that complex of a setup. A few surface lows kind of bouncing around and ejecting from a deep, baggy trough. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 How do the euro snow maps look? Through Tuesday at 10 a.m. when the snow is over... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 Through Tuesday at 10 a.m. when the snow is over... Solid nope on the Euro. Phil!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 Here is a tweet from Jay Albrecht, from the NWS. Jay sometimes posts on here as Jaya Jay Albrecht @AlbrechtJay 4m4 minutes ago MoreWell, courtesy of http://TropicalTidbits.com , here is a fcst sounding for Bremerton next Tue AM. Warm front with low level NE flow. Counting on heavy precip, isothermal near 0C boundary layer, and evap cooling. Marginal. UW WRF goes nuts with snowfall. I'm skeptical. #wawx #wasnow 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 I agree and I'm also starting to find myself skipping those two runs. Like you said, it's been a well-known fact that those two were always the ugly stepchildren that would sometimes go off on their own but something about this year has really made that apparent. The only problem with this statement is that actual evidence has always shown that any difference in verification scores between the 4 runs of the GFS is negligible. Hard to reconcile that with the 6z/18z constantly "going off on their own". 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 4-6 feet of snow on the ground in Seattle by January 10th, 1880. Wow, I can't even imagine what that would look like today, let alone how the region would respond. We would need a whole lot of salt...Could happen next week still. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 Through Tuesday at 10 a.m. when the snow is over... Fully expect Monmouth to get buried now that I am in Springfield. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 Fully expect Monmouth to get buried now that I am in Springfield.This run was just slightly too mild. Im still hopeful. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 The wrf shows about 8” of snow here in the next 5 days 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 CFS weeklies are suggesting a cooler than normal last week of jan and first week of feb fwiw.I feel like a scumbag popping in here with bad news after a nice vacation, but that’s very unlikely to occur unless it’s an inversion thing. I’m just catching up on everything now (in flight WiFi ftw) and though the low predictability state looks to continue for the next several weeks as the Alaska/GOA vortex gradually erodes and the AO/NAM heads negative, the prospects for deep western troughing/-PNA appear to be diminishing from mid-January onwards for a multitude of reasons that I’m unable to adequately explain sitting in a crammed JetBlue flight loaded with crying babies and people sorely in need of a shower. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 Could happen next week still.Seattle/all of Puget Sound would come to a halt. Next to no transportation moving...you could just go out in downtown or stand on I-5 and hear nothing but the quiet snow falling... 3 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 The only problem with this statement is that actual evidence has always shown that any difference in verification scores between the 4 runs of the GFS is negligible. Hard to reconcile that with the 6z/18z constantly "going off on their own".This! Thank you. There is no performance degradation whatsoever in the 06z/18z runs. They would not be run otherwise. In fact, when referencing the same timeframe, accuracy improves (on average) with each cycle due to the decreasing lead time. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 The wrf shows about 8” of snow here in the next 5 days Happy for you man. We can put the regional dud-status to rest. 2 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 Also known as... heaven.For sure! The closest thing I can remember in my lifetime with Seattle coming to a halt briefly was the night of 12/28 into the late morning of 12/29/96 where pretty much only emergency responders were out and they were even getting stuck. Also Dec. 1990 during that epic heavy snowfall that caught everyone on I-5 by surprise where hundreds of people just left their abandoned cars on the freeway and walked. That was something else. But 4 feet of snowfall, that would completely shut things down for quite a duration of time. I want to see that in my lifetime! 3 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 Only 50 inches to go! Who believes this map lol? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 Who believes this map lol? I think something good is coming for y'all. But not quite this extreme. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 I think something good is coming for y'all. But not quite this extreme.I hope your faith and optimism is enough to get us our 8 inches. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 The wrf shows about 8” of snow here in the next 5 daysdoubtful Seattle/all of Puget Sound would come to a halt. Next to no transportation moving...you could just go out in downtown or stand on I-5 and hear nothing but the quiet snow falling...OMG!!! a total dreamland. BRING IT!!!!!! 1 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 Who believes this map lol?NOT ME ... and hilarious what the WRF spews out! buwahahahahahahahahahaaaa!!!! <_> 1 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 For sure! The closest thing I can remember in my lifetime with Seattle coming to a halt briefly was the night of 12/28 into the late morning of 12/29/96 where pretty much only emergency responders were out and they were even getting stuck. Also Dec. 1990 during that epic heavy snowfall that caught everyone on I-5 by surprise where hundreds of people just left their abandoned cars on the freeway and walked. That was something else. But 4 feet of snowfall, that would completely shut things down for quite a duration of time. I want to see that in my lifetime!Dude the 90's were such a great time... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 I don't need verification scores to show me what I can see with my own two eyes, but I understand what you're getting at. All I'm saying is the lore that the 6z/18z are more prone to different solutions than their 12z/00z counterparts seems to have gained more credence this season.I'm sure it happens sometimes, and is much more noticeable than when it doesn't happen. I'm also sure there are times the 12z or 0z takes a left turn, only for the next run to veer back right to a previous solution. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 I hope your faith and optimism is enough to get us our 8 inches. That's what she said. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 That's what she said. Sorry I should have said 13 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 On another note, snowstorm at the OK Corral! https://www.facebook.com/historictombstone/videos/516805308810822/ Pretty awesome. I cannot wait for my 8 days in Arizona in March. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 That's what she said. He's Canadian so you have to excuse his confusion on our measurements. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 Getting some big wind gusts here now. Rainfall has topped 2” Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parksvillewx Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 Probably not so much for Esquimalt’s location but most of Vancouver Island actually does better for snowfall when the systems approach from the SW. easterly flow and heavier precip rates. In NW flow we get shadowed and the SE winds ahead of the front scour out the cold quite quicklyGreat track for me. Same track is how I scored most of the snow last winter. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 Great track for me. Same track is how I scored most of the snow last winter.You'll score great, no worries about that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 Now that we're within that 2-4 day window the question is which model blinks first? Does the GFS stick to its guns showing deeper, compact lows and a very real wind storm potential along with NAM/ICON/FV3 model camp? Or does the ECMWF stick to its guns showing a weaker scenario and splitting energy inside 130 W to the Coast more inline with the GEM? Not sure. If I were a betting man, which I am I would factor in the fact that we're in a weak Nino currently and I would lean more towards the ECMWF/GEM. We shall find out soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 Only 50 inches to go! This will verify. Even the swamps get 1 inch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 He's Canadian so you have to excuse his confusion on our measurements. I think inches are the universal unit of measurement for that 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 The WRF is totally worthless. The EURO on the other hand does show quite a bit of snow for Timmy and mine's locations. For W. Washington the GFS is probably the best case scenario, looks like a good Hood Canal setup. The operational runs aren't on board with another real cool shot around the 10th/11th, but some ensembles look pretty good in that period. All models and the ensembles show a warm up around the 8th. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 I've been about as pessimistic as anyone this winter and it has been a true dud. But if there is any time to be optimistic we might see something interesting, that time is now. We are entering an active pattern that could hold a few surprises. I really doubt we see a true regional event this winter, but a Hood Canal snow, or PDX Gorge event, anafront south valley snow, or quick 6" overrunning event at Bellingham wouldn't surprise me. I usually only care about what happens at my place, but I would love to see Seattle, or Vancouver, or wherever get a nice event even if I miss out. There just won't be much to go around this year. 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 I've been about as pessimistic as anyone this winter and it has been a true dud. But if there is any time to be optimistic we might see something interesting, that time is now. We are entering an active pattern that could hold a few surprises. I really doubt we see a true regional event this winter, but a Hood Canal snow, or PDX Gorge event, anafront south valley snow, or quick 6" overrunning event at Bellingham wouldn't surprise me. I usually only care about what happens at my place, but I would love to see Seattle, or Vancouver, or wherever get a nice event even if I miss out. There just won't be much to go around this year.You’ve come a long way from your “we must secede!!!” rhetoric. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 You’ve come a long way from your “we must secede!!!” rhetoric. I think we should have a separate January weather thread for SE Marion County, just because the weather can be pretty different from parts of the PNW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parksvillewx Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 You'll score great, no worries about that.I'm still not sold but chances are looking good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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