Jesse Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 MUCH closer to the EURO. I'm liking the improvements.Hopefully the next Euro run will be close to the Euro as well! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 00z GEM HUGE improvements 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 30, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Hopefully the next Euro run will be close to the Euro as well! I'm actually legit hoping so haha Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Hope the GFS ensembles are better. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Uhhh.... Day 6-7 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 00Z GFS showing a nice 500mb shortwave swinging through the region at 150hrs bring with it cold onshore flow and additional snowfall. Good improvement on this run overall. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 With the consistent EPS as the backdrop... it seems like all the models are just figuring it out at their own pace but all headed to the same point. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 30, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Hope the GFS ensembles are better. The operational was quite good, I don't see why the ensembles shouldn't be better or the same. 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Just checked the freezer to make sure my good luck Christmas snowball was still around! Still lookin good! 7 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 The operational was quite good, I don't see why the ensembles shouldn't be better or the same.Operational is great. Keeps the cold air over VI and northern Washington with the Fraser outflow pumping Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Just checked the freezer to make sure my good luck Christmas snowball was still around! Still lookin good!I should head over to EUG where they have the one they saved from 1990. They had George HW Bush put his presidential seal on it. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 00z GEM Day 6-7 .... Haven't seen 850s like this for PDX since I think December 2013? Correct me if I'm wrong 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakeinthevalley Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Boise NWS flat out rejects the Euro solutions Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Boise NWS flat out rejects the Euro solutions The ECMWF solution is going to be complete model consensus by tomorrow... what will they say then? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Just checked the freezer to make sure my good luck Christmas snowball was still around! Still lookin good!I have to meet you. Craziest weather nut on the forum!! 2 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 The ECMWF solution is going to be complete model consensus by tomorrow... what will they say then? They’ll go with the MFR Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Uhhh.... Day 6-7 00z GEM Day 6-7 .... Haven't seen 850s like this for PDX since I think December 2013? Correct me if I'm wrong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 I think the 00Z ECMWF is going to be absolutely crazy tonight. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 30, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 i think the 00Z ECMWF is going to be absolutely crazy tonight. I'm a bit skeptical. Don't know why. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 i think the 00Z ECMWF is going to be absolutely crazy tonight. If the tilt and amplification of the block holds Days 5-7, yes it very well could be prolific. Nice improvements on GFS Days 3-5, then falls off. 00z GEM dramatic improvements with a quick arctic blast, but not enough staying power for prolonged cold long range. Focus on Days 3-5 only things are looking encouraging. We need the EURO to hold strong and see all models eventually agree moving towards a EURO, EURO/GEM blend with good run-to-run consistency the next 6-8 runs. 00z ECMWF in 1 hour 12 minutes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 I'm a bit skeptical. Don't know why. Probably past history. But this one is different. I feel it. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 GEM and euro snow maps are pretty comparable for northern regions Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 i think the 00Z ECMWF is going to be absolutely crazy tonight.Keeping my fingers crossed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 i think the 00Z ECMWF is going to be absolutely crazy tonight. Why? I really doubt it will be better than the 12z. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Probably past history. But this one is different. I feel it.Kind of like you felt the potential a couple weeks ago, then didn't feel it, then felt it again, then didn't feel it again...? You get the idea 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 I'm at a 30% chance at an arctic blast (850s -12c or colder) *right now*. If the EURO continues its trend or improves I'll bump that up to 35%. I've done this too many years and have learned not to go all in until we are 3 to 3 1/2 days out with SOLID model agreement. 6z GEFS in 6 hours 20 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Kind of like you felt the potential a couple weeks ago, then didn't feel it, then felt it again, then didn't feel it again...? You get the idea I was right... should not have doubted it. Need to just trust my instincts. I also said the models would take it away and bring back it back on short notice. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 The lack of 300+ hour maps recently is troubling. 4 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 The lack of 300+ hour maps recently is troubling.The CFS runs of late have been looking good. Solidly cool February average 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 The lack of 300+ hour maps recently is troubling.I could not agree more. Well, I could, but that could become annoying. Yeah. Just think a few days ago we were living happily at 384 hours. The crazy joy, the wild imaginations, the frolicking, the lack of Tim'isms or Jim'isms.... Never again. Never again. 00z ECMWF in 59 minutes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 GEM and euro snow maps are pretty comparable for northern regions Lots of "backwash" surface low possibilities with this pattern coming up. I always like to see strong Arctic outflow off the North/Central BC coast. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 I called this one years ago, guys. Just knew it was coming. I also think the 00z Euro will show a January 1950 redux. Like my posts!! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 I would like to see better positioning of the SE Ridge. Tim, when will it warm up and rain? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Just told my wife. Her response resembled the NWS Seattle AFD. 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Lots of "backwash" surface low possibilities with this pattern coming up. I always like to see strong Arctic outflow off the North/Central BC coast.Yeah I agree. I think an area of very heavy straight effect snow is possible early Monday morning for eastern areas of our forecast region (Oak Bay, Saanich) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 I called this one years ago, guys. Just knew it was coming. I also think the 00z Euro will show a January 1950 redux. Like my posts!! I am going to just troll the bitter, angry, little man. Can't win with him. I will just keep him busy desperately chasing me like a pathetic dog. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Well that escalated quickly... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 I'm thinking the 0Z Euro is going to back off considerably on the cold and closely resemble the GFS. This event will probably end up with some lumpy rain and highs in the low 40's. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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