Jan 18th-20th Potential Winter Storm. Can this be The One??

[Minny_Weather]

Yes and no. I am not a meteorologist but my old man is and he has never had an issue with it. Plus I am not a fan of meteorologist slamming people for sharing information that you can find in a blink of an eye. Personal opinion though.

Nothing wrong with amateur weather accounts, I used to run one. But when you make predictions 5 days out, and said predictions are either the highest model outputs or even above those, that's when there's a problem.

[Stormhunter87]

Nothing wrong with amateur weather accounts, I used to run one. But when you make predictions 5 days out, and said predictions are either the highest model outputs or even above those, that's when there's a problem.

Agree one should show the range of possibilities, but that means giving people a heads up and updating how it plays out. I think people should know sooner. The last storm I was talking to some guy at the gas station that morning. He had no idea it was even going to snow.

[hlcater]

Agree one should show the range of possibilities, but that means giving people a heads up and updating how it plays out. I think people should know sooner. The last storm I was talking to some guy at the gas station that morning. He had no idea it was even going to snow.

 

That's not what he's doing though. What he's doing is taking the upper 1% of the envelope and posting it on social media disguised as a forecast. At which point it's nothing more than hypecasting and serves no use other than to mislead the public. What he needs to be doing is toss the snowfall maps and provide good, solid analysis along with a qualitative map showing where the heaviest axis falls. Within 24-48hrs you can disclose an amounts map. But at 5 days out and forecasting higher than any of the deterministic models had been showing is... just no - dont do that.

[Money]

That's not what he's doing though. What he's doing is taking the upper 1% of the envelope and posting it on social media disguised as a forecast. At which point it's nothing more than hypecasting and serves no use other than to mislead the public. What he needs to be doing is toss the snowfall maps and provide good, solid analysis along with a qualitative map showing where the heaviest axis falls. Within 24-48hrs you can disclose an amounts map. But at 5 days out and forecasting higher than any of the deterministic models had been showing is... just no - dont do that.

+1,000

[Stormhunter87]

Nam looks to be alot faster with the storm now. The northern piece of energy really looks sad too.

[Stormhunter87]

Okay what in the world it dives the low into Mexico.

[Minny_Weather]

Nam looks to be alot faster with the storm now. The northern piece of energy really looks sad too.

Yeah that was a really nasty run.

[Clinton]

00z NAM is drunk toss it out.

[Stormhunter87]

Yeah that was a really nasty run.

Yeah going to be sad if the nam lets me down. Next to the euro it's been spot on this year.

[Hawkeye]

Okay what in the world it dives the low into Mexico.

 

Yeah, that seems to be the trend.  It's like the energy moves into the west and then falls into a hole.

[Money]

Icon is way different than the NAM at 69

[jaster220]

15/12z Euro @96 has really sharpened the trough at h5. Nice look and moves more northerly than prior runs.

 

[jaster220]

Old news Ik, but 15/18z GEFS really likes my FWA to KTOL (and was quite an uptick in qpf across the board fwiw)

 

[Stormhunter87]

Okay now that I can actually see the icon, that is quite a bit different. It really developed the north energy. Still fast but stronger. Also showing warm before the storm which is odd. Cold air does not seem to be issue this time.

[St Paul Storm]

Icon is way different than the NAM at 69

Snow even up this way. You’re baby steppin’ towards a nice hit.

[jcwxguy]

Icon though 102

[hlcater]

Icon though 102

 

That is quite the screwzone there.

[jaster220]

Icon though 102

 

I swear to all I can not remember such a wide swath (S to N) in my life as I'm seeing portrayed on some of these snowfall maps. And that includes the GEFS of all things. #wild

[jaster220]

Icon though 102

 

Stach run

[jaster220]

Snippit from LOT pm AFD

 

 

The synoptic ingredients for this setup are potentially explosive,
signified well by the numerous historic regional winter storms on
the CIPS analog list. A few of the questions at still several days
out are: position of initial fgen driven snow Friday evening;
strength and track of primary Pacific borne short-wave; lobe of
tropospheric PV centered over Hudson Bay that could interact with
or phase with main southern S/W; and resulting from the above two
items the surface low track and strength into Saturday that will
help determine how much snow falls.

[Money]

Gfs is weak and south

[hlcater]

GFS doesn't have a screwzone on the 00z. Unless you consider the screwzone to be pretty much area wide as it's a weak piece of junk.

[bud2380]

This storm is getting more disappointing with every run. Looking more like a 2-4” storm now. Blegghhh.

[hlcater]

I guess there is a wee bit of solace in the sense that GHD 2015 did literally the same thing. Trended to junk in the D3-D4 range and came back and dropped a wide swath of 10"+. Especially since there's still heavy ensemble support for a stronger system. Well there was... Let's see what the 00z ens do I guess.

[St Paul Storm]

The 0z King should be exciting given the other recent model runs. No need to panic yet unless the King blinks.

[Iowawx]

Considering the fact that I did not see any snow at all during the entire month of December, I will be glad to see any snow from this system. Even if it just ends up being a 2-4 inch event. 

[ToastedRavs]

No need to panic until this gets sampled and where it comes ashore in the Pac NW. Models had been so consistent, you had to expect some swings eventually. Just because a model suite run isn't great, doesn't mean it's the end all.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

I will agree with everyone the GFS was a big let down lol.  The ICON model for what its worth...

 

[Stacsh]

At this point I’ll be happy with snow on the ground. No matter what. Good news is it Michigan here, it’s by a warm Big lake. And there is cold coming. So no doubt it will be white. A nice snowstorm would be the cherry on top.

[jcwxguy]

Cmc is south for us in Nebraska but is good for points to our Southeast

[Grizzcoat]

At this point I’ll be happy with snow on the ground. No matter what. Good news is it Michigan here, it’s by a warm Big lake. And there is cold coming. So no doubt it will be white. A nice snowstorm would be the cherry on top.

A lot less cold on these recent 0Z runs. At least through the weekend.

[Money]

Still looks Iike a big storm on the 22nd

[hlcater]

GEM came in north and stronger. 

[Tony]

I know we take each run seriously but we cannot cave to a bad model run or two.lots of time left before the storm even hits and I still belive that this will be a bigger storm then currently modeled.

[Hawkeye]

A lot less cold on these recent 0Z runs. At least through the weekend.

 

I noticed that, too.  There has been a lot of talk about a super cold NFL game on Sunday in KC, with a high temp in the single digits.  However, this evening's 00z GFS run has the temp in the 20s.

[jcwxguy]

Ukmet stayed south

[Grizzcoat]

If anyone can post the UKMET precip maps past HR 72 that would be awesome. UK HR 72 precip coverage looks very similar to the GFS. Thanks in advance.

[hlcater]

GEFS took a massive dump.

[Hawkeye]

00z UK

 

[Grizzcoat]

guidance is really trying to show that wedge "screw zone" -- It seems to be getting larger from run to run. I'd be somewhat shocked if the EURO for my location doesn't continue the trend of declining QPF.