Jan 18th-20th Potential Winter Storm. Can this be The One??

[Stormy]

DVN issues WSW

They included my area. Their point forecast has 6” Friday night for my place so they must not be buying the lower end model runs.

[Niko]

North is our trend. Even better sampling will be available this afternoon. Most peeps on here should do pretty well w this storm, especially when LES kicks in on top.

[Hawkeye]

12z Canadian is much better for Iowa, strongly disagreeing with the dry moat through sw/central Iowa.  

 

[jaster220]

Fun fact....I know the guy real well who made the kuchera ratio. His name is Evan, lives here in Omaha and works for the Air Force Weather Agency at Offutt AFB. Nice guy

 

Neat

[CentralNebWeather]

GFS gives my area of Central Nebraska 1-3".  Not exactly a great pattern for my area.  @gabel23, hope you get in on some of this action.  I usually get excited around here for Feb., March, and April as that is when we usually get the big dog storms.  With that being said, our school is moving up basketball games tomorrow night 2 hours to let the visiting teams get home earlier as freezing drizzle may precede the snow.  Lovely.

[jaster220]

Both NAM’e trending favorably for our region. Looking good buddy.

 

Especially your way - hope it holds for ya!  

[badgerwx]

Looking into the NWS Chat rooms for some of my local offices, looks like coordination is currently taking place for WSW's to be hoisted over much of Iowa, MN, and Southern WI and N. Illinois.

[Stormhunter87]

Canadian trend to the nam. GFS is all over. Hmmm waiting for the euro I guess at this point.

[Snowshoe]

Love the 1.9 in central Wisco but would be surprised to see it. Just enough to cover the grass is all i ask for. Happy for all the forum peeps down south that will cash in! Post pics to remind me what snow looks like.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2019011712/060/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Niko]

Canadian trend to the nam. GFS is all over. Hmmm waiting for the euro I guess at this point.

It usually wobbles, but, eventually, it catches up w the other models.

[Stormhunter87]

Wpc has up our chances for 6 inches a little bit. Fingers crossed

[East Dubzz]

Only model run I haven’t been a fan of this morning is the ICON.

[Stormhunter87]

Only model run I haven’t been a fan of this morning is the ICON.

It has been pretty consistent in its runs but really lacks any fuel.

[james1976]

Only model run I haven’t been a fan of this morning is the ICON.

I dont buy that model even when it has bullseyed me.

[indianajohn]

still a lot of uncertainty on the models for most people on the forum but models for NWI region has been consistently 4-6" range. I guess its better then nothing! LOL 

[jaster220]

Thanks,  2012 and 2016/17? seemed bad, but not this bad. 

 

but not this bad HORRIBLE! 

 

 

(fixed) 

[bud2380]

Low end looks like 4" for here, so not bad.  Probably won't see more than 6" though.  Northern Iowa looks really good.  I just hope I see some better snowfall rates.  Last storm was like 1/3" an hour for 18 hours.  

[james1976]

Not sure what model Des Moines is looking at but this seems a bit weird.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Wow....cmc being very generous to eastern Nebraska!

[Stormhunter87]

Not sure what model Des Moines is looking at but this seems a bit weird.

Probably a blend of the models but guiding towards the euro.

[badgerwx]

ARX has now issued WSW's. My first one of the year!

[Clinton]

Looks like the FV3 is catching on.  I like it's run.

[james1976]

Anyone have the FV3 snowfall map?

[gimmesnow]

Looks like I'll cash in nicely if this keeps trending this way. I think the best part of this storm is that there's no warm melting temps in the extended forecast.

 

It looks like the pattern is actually changing and most of us will end up in a situation where we get snow and it stays for weeks. With the last two years, it feels like it hasn't been like that at all.

[Clinton]

Anyone have the FV3 snowfall

This is with 10:1 I'll post Kuchera soon.

[gosaints]

LOL terrible model

 

[Niko]

FV3 looks beautiful.

[james1976]

Thanks Clinton!

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings just put the entire area in a WWA for freezing drizzle then a 2 inches of snow and blowing snow on top of that from 3 AM until Midnight Friday.  Ok.

[St Paul Storm]

LOL terrible model

 

Great time for it to be right....for the first time ever. Keep the faith.

[Clinton]

FV3 with Kuchera

http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs_fv3/2019011712/084/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Hawkeye]

12z UK...  Clearly, still some large differences between the models.  Some have the heavier stuff in far north and south Iowa, with a dry hole in between, while the UK is the inverse.

 

[East Dubzz]

12z UK

 

us_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2019011712_72_5660_220.png

I definitely would not complain about that!

[james1976]

12z UK

 

us_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2019011712_72_5660_220.png

Nice LES showing up in Chi town

[jaster220]

FV3 with Kuchera

http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs_fv3/2019011712/084/snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

FV3 getting back to what the EPS had a couple days ago - sweet. So hoping the trends (+) aren't quite done as sampling continues with each suite. Wanna see the F-GEN band combine/over-lap with the S stream defo-banding. Still time..

 

Niko - you ready? Looking better for SEMI to get a good hit finally

[gabel23]

GFS gives my area of Central Nebraska 1-3".  Not exactly a great pattern for my area.  @gabel23, hope you get in on some of this action.  I usually get excited around here for Feb., March, and April as that is when we usually get the big dog storms.  With that being said, our school is moving up basketball games tomorrow night 2 hours to let the visiting teams get home earlier as freezing drizzle may precede the snow.  Lovely.

Good luck man! We have a game tonight and nothing tomorrow as our conference tournament starts this weekend. I'm gonna be riding the edge yet again with this storm system; seems like that has been the trend all year! 

[Stormhunter87]

Rap going south but has a nice breakout in Iowa.

[dubuque473]

Just topped off the 2-Stage Toro and noticed 2 coyote in my backyard...maybe that is a good snow sign lol

 

I would be elated to get 6+ out of this thing...

[Tony]

Rap going south but has a nice breakout in Iowa.

With northern stream or southern?

[VMB443]

MKX has 4-8 for Milwaukee County plus half a county west which would include me - here’s hoping!