Niko Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 No headlines yet from the NWS, but I am thinking perhaps by the 4pm package later today, they might put SEMI in the WWA. Currently expecting 3-5". Edit: Hopefully I can score some LES from Port Huron Sunday and add to my totals. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 06z Euro pretty much holding steady...locally speaking, it is def seeing LES continuing into Lake/Cook/DuPage county once the synoptic snows shut down. That cut-off in W IA is pretty nasty looking... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DSM WeatherNut Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 The cutoff (dry air) may actually be helping those just to the E in S.ia by squeezing out "what" should be just W. Atmosphere Physics. Nuts I agree, but its a short distance between a lot an none and no model will ever be that accurate. Wait and see time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 That wedge on the Euro sucks.Snow getting going now in NW IA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 This thing is way, way North. Getting snow here in Fargo and it looks like it could get moderate later. 0*F. Teens below temps only 60 miles North of here are keeping the snow from going any farther North. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 Not sure I buy it but HRRR giving us 5-6 hours of snow even up this way. 2” line just to the south. Would be a nice surprise to get some accums from this. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 Looking better than when I went to bed, that’s for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 Forecast of 4-7” from the DVN seems about perfect. That’s what my “final” prediction would be as well. Hopefully no more curveballs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 Fgen band now out of N IL and into S WI on the NAM & HRRR. That would likely make a big difference in snow amounts if it verifies. Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 Yeah, the HRRR is way north with that band.... into southern MN and WI and mostly out of Iowa. On the plus side, the HRRR has pulled the southern band back nw into my area. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 Lol, now getting split by the heavy stuff to the north and south! Oh well, still looking like a solid 4+ inches, which is fine with me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 Good morning, I wanted to wish everyone good luck on the upcoming storm. I have enjoyed everyones conversation and I wanted to share a video Gary Lezak made this morning in discussing the models and what he believes they are doing and not doing correctly. It is a KC based forecast of course but I think it is still relevant to many.https://weather2020.com/2019/01/18/a-storm-approaches-todays-video-blog/ 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 Wonder if that snow in NW Iowa is actually verifying. Seems to be a touch further south than what the HRRR is initializing with. Not really further south as a whole, but the snow shield seems to extend further south than shown on the HRRR. Could just be something that isn’t producing snow, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 12z NAM From 00z to 12z, the wet band it had from Waterloo to Chicago has been replaced by a dry moat. I also don't like how Cedar Rapids is on the nw edge of the southern band. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 Dang, Johnson County (my area near Iowa City) is looking like the place to be in Eastern Iowa. The Euro and now the 12z NAM and 3K NAM hit my area hard. http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2019011812/024/snku_acc.us_mw.png 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 12z NAM From 00z to 12z, the wet band it had from Waterloo to Chicago has been replaced by a dry moat. Very curious about that. Based on how the radar looks right now, I’d like to say that dry moat could be wrong, but the fact is that I’m probably going to be the one that’s wrong. If you look at the snow shield on the radar right now compared to what the NAM has at this time (or even hours later), it seems to extend further south over in NW Iowa. That is, of course, assuming snow is actually occurring over there as it shows. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 Hrrr doesn't appear to be matching the radar. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 Dang, Johnson County (my area near Iowa City) is looking like the place to be in Eastern Iowa. The Euro and now the 12z NAM and 3K NAM hit my area hard. http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2019011812/024/snku_acc.us_mw.png Man, I’m in the lollipop jack zone on this one! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 Hrrr doesn't appear to be matching the radar.It’s pretty good in South Dakota & SW Minnesota, but it doesn’t match up in NW Iowa, at least according to my sight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 It’s pretty good in South Dakota & SW Minnesota, but it doesn’t match up in NW Iowa, at least according to my sight.Yeah that's the area I'm talking about. I also my have terrible eyes but I'm seeing some snow develop just west of Des Moines Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 Another 3k nam map. Because the northern band has been moved up into Wisconsin, Chicagoland gets less. Again, Cedar Rapids is dangerously on the nw precipice of the southern band, which has veered further southeast again. Snow geeks in northern Iowa have to be sweating this one a bit. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 It’s pretty good in South Dakota & SW Minnesota, but it doesn’t match up in NW Iowa, at least according to my sight.Common for WAA wing to extend slightly further south and east than model depict. Right now the HRRR seems to be initializing pretty well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 Terry Swails showed a Euro 10 day total snowfall map showing my county (Johnson) with 20”> of snow!! Of course he showed that map just for something to look at for now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 Common for WAA wing to extend slightly further south and east than model depict. Right now the HRRR seems to be initializing pretty wellSo is that actually snow falling that may continue to develop? That could make a pretty big difference in my area, as I’m right on the southern edge of that northern band of snow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 The Green Bay office talks about LES potential. LES on the west shore of L. Mich. is so finicky and relatively infrequent that it's hard to model and hard to focus. When those plumes form the usually start from the north and then slide to the south. How quickly they move is anyone's guess really. It will be fun to watch. The second facet of the system is the potential for lake-effect snow near the Lake Michigan shoreline late tonight and Saturday as winds turn northeast. The high-res models were generally in agreement that a lake band would eventually form, though as usual they differed on where it would come ashore. Manitowoc is the most likely area, though some brought it inland as far north as the Door peninsula. Dry air above an inversion around 5K ft will work against the development of an intense band, but conditions still look favorable for 2-5 inches (system snow and lake-effect) from Algoma south near the lake. The current snow amount forecast would support an advisory for Manitowoc County, but given the remaining uncertainty over the northern extent of the system snows and the always tricky lake-effect forecast for east-central Wisconsin, held off on posting one with the morning forecast. Boy, the 3km NAM is really showing a clear signal that there will be multiple plumes coming in off the lake...IMO, I could see some spots near the lake hit 15"+...if seen this movie before and the reason why is bc I think the models are underplaying the potential. Last storm that hit the northern burbs with a lake enhanced band that dumped more snow than was anticipated while the models showed a marginal set up. I remember 850's were barely -5C. We have not seen that much cold since then that would have lowered lake temps. This go around, 850's are much colder and my gut is telling me to look out for Lehs to be better during the synoptic event and when the LES event kicks in Sat pm - Sun this should be fun watching it unfold. Just by gauging what the 3km NAM is showing, I could see 2"+/hr snowfall rates if indeed a lake plume does develop which is looking like it will be due to strengthening convergence into NE IL. Prob one of the more ideal set ups we have seen in a long while. Heck, I think MKE is in the game to as ENE winds are ideal for them as well. 4 Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 I have a baaaaaaaaad feeling about that dry wedge. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 RAP at 13z http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rap/2019011813/021/snku_acc.conus.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 Snow really advancing in hard from the west now. A few spits of snow starting to fall. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 I have a baaaaaaaaad feeling about that dry wedge.Haha I know right? When do potential dry air issues like this ever turn out well? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 12z NAM... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2019011812/066/snku_acc.us_mw.png 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 Its never good to be in the jackzone at any time unless it's when the storm is over with. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 Should start here early I would think already hitting the ground just west of rochester. Earlier than expected. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 Its never good to be in the jackzone at any time unless it's when the storm is over with.Fronto bands are finicky. Models struggle with them all the time, especially relatively weak ones Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 Its never good to be in the jackzone at any time unless it's when the storm is over with.Yup lol. You start to get a general idea of where it’ll end up right now, but you don’t really know for sure until it actually starts to spread over your area and you can see where the heavy stuff is setting up. Especially with a storm like this. It’s been a tricky one, that’s for sure. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erburns18 Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 Welp Ive given up on seeing anything over an inch of snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 I’m somewhat encouraged by the radar trends, but we’ll see what comes of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 Well, I'm still on target to get anywhere from 0"-12" of snow later today and tonight. The setup seems to favor the extremes in my area - slightly stronger storm, maybe a foot - slightly weaker storm, maybe nothing - with no happy middle. Temps will be critical as well. At least it's finally game day... 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 Yup lol. You start to get a general idea of where it’ll end up right now, but you don’t really know for sure until it actually starts to spread over your area and you can see where the heavy stuff is setting up. Especially with a storm like this. It’s been a tricky one, that’s for sure.The second band is where you could make bank. I think the fronto band skirts to your north Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 I’m somewhat encouraged by the radar trends, but we’ll see what comes of it.I'm not feeling too good bout it. That thing is gonna have to pivot south for me to get some good stuff or have more development to my west. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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