Jan. 22nd-23rd Winter Storm

[Minny_Weather]

So the best returns are 10-15 miles away from me on radar. Zero returns over my place. And yet I have moderate snow. It must be windy aloft because there's not much down here on the surface.

[Hawkeye]

snowing lightly in Cedar Rapids.  Not sure when it started.  

 

When I woke up this morning there was a very light snow dust falling.  It then switched to freezing drizzle for a couple hours.  It is now back to light snow dust.

[gabel23]

This one might be the most painful result I have seen in a while. Started off looking like I would be missed to my north, now I’m gonna be missed way to the south east. We wasted a snow day today so I guess I’ll enjoy that. We do have two bands of snow that has developed, oh ya one stays west the other to my east!

[Iowawx]

This storm must have really slowed down. I thought the heaviest snow would be starting by now, but HRRR suggests heaviest snow looks to be right in the CR/IC area. Looks like snow will continue well into tomorrow morning. 

[East Dubzz]

This storm must have really slowed down. I thought the heaviest snow would be starting by now, but HRRR suggests heaviest snow looks to be right in the CR/IC area. Looks like snow will continue well into tomorrow morning.

Yup. Actually, I think some of the models last night were suggesting the heavier stuff holding off until later this evening.

[bud2380]

Euro has a band of the heaviest snow from just barely northeast of Iowa City into Jackson and Clinton counties.  Hardest looks to  hit late tonight into the morning tomorrow.  Storm has really slowed down on models.

[bud2380]

[Wartburger]

I'm down to 1 inch on RAP. Awesome!

 

Reality is kicking in for us.

[james1976]

Has anyone heard what ratios will be like?

[East Dubzz]

Capture.PNG

Man oh man, wouldn’t that be something. This matches up pretty well with what the DVN is thinking. This would have slightly higher snow totals, though.

[East Dubzz]

Has anyone heard what ratios will be like?

This is what the DVN said:

 

“Most of the thermal profile below 600mb is warmer than the DGZ initially, so we`ll begin with a wet snow and low LSRs at or under 10:1. As the low tightens up and pulls in colder air aloft, SLRs will increase toward 15:1 in the west and north.”

[dubuque473]

Has anyone heard what ratios will be like?

DVN says 10:1 to start, 15:1 once it gets going.

[dubuque473]

Beat me lol

[CentralNebWeather]

This one might be the most painful result I have seen in a while. Started off looking like I would be missed to my north, now I’m gonna be missed way to the south east. We wasted a snow day today so I guess I’ll enjoy that. We do have two bands of snow that has developed, oh ya one stays west the other to my east!

We had no snow day Friday and a late start today.  Snowing pretty good here but really no accumulation.  We have had 2 late starts total this year, rest of the storms hit on a weekend or over Christmas break so we have plenty of days to use.  Hopefully some big dog storm will come before winter is over.

[Wartburger]

It is really interesting that this year the Southern part of Iowa has had significantly more snow than the Northern part.  Just weird to me that this much snow is missing us to the South.

[gimmesnow]

It always rains in Nebraska because there's so many tears.

[Minny_Weather]

It always rains in Nebraska because there's so many tears.

I don't have to go too far back in your post history to see you complaining too. Stop being a hypocrite.

[Iowawx]

I might be wrong, but I would think that the heaviest snow holding off until the evening/overnight would help ratios because of colder temps.

[Minny_Weather]

Measuring is going to be really hard with this. This snow is falling on an existing snowpack, and it's wind-driven. The existing snowpack is crust, so maybe that will aid a bit.

[CentralNebWeather]

Just west of me getting rocked under that heavy band that hasn't moved much all morning.  Web Cameras showing blizzard conditions.  

[Iowawx]

17 HRRR. Snow keeps falling at the end of the run.

 

CR/IC appear to be in the perfect spot for this. 

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

HRRR 17Z 1-22-19.png17 HRRR. Snow keeps falling at the end of the run.

 

CR/IC appear to be in the perfect spot for this. 

That couldn't be any farther from what is happening here right now.

[dubuque473]

Measuring is going to be really hard with this. This snow is falling on an existing snowpack, and it's wind-driven. The existing snowpack is crust, so maybe that will aid a bit.

I use this. In the picture it is set up for rain obviously. I sure didn’t pay $60.00 for it either.

 

https://www.windandweather.com/p/RG6608?aff=6158&CAWELAID=530007800000010987&CAGPSPN=pla&CAAGID=32872750045&CATCI=pla-299152938420&CATARGETID=530007800000015128&cadevice=t&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIzNy4qYWC4AIVl7rACh2iDQdPEAQYASABEgIHQPD_BwE

[Tony]

HRRR 17Z 1-22-19.png17 HRRR. Snow keeps falling at the end of the run.

 

CR/IC appear to be in the perfect spot for this. 

I 1/2 counties to my north/northwest looking good. Don't need much of a shift at all to get in the goods.

[Minny_Weather]

I use this. In the picture it is set up for rain obviously. I sure didn’t pay $60.00 for it either.

 

https://www.windandweather.com/p/RG6608?aff=6158&CAWELAID=530007800000010987&CAGPSPN=pla&CAAGID=32872750045&CATCI=pla-299152938420&CATARGETID=530007800000015128&cadevice=t&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIzNy4qYWC4AIVl7rACh2iDQdPEAQYASABEgIHQPD_BwE

Issue is I live in an apartment so my methods are kinda limited. Thanks for the suggestion though!

[Hawkeye]

17z HRRR. Snow keeps falling at the end of the run.

 

CR/IC appear to be in the perfect spot for this. 

 

Bulls-eye #6 for south-central Iowa?

[Minny_Weather]

Clip here is moderate, but looks like the UNL area is getting pretty blizzardy. 

[james1976]

DMX update at 11:55am still has me at 4-6". I expect that to change with the afternoon package.

[Hawkeye]

I use this. In the picture it is set up for rain obviously. I sure didn’t pay $60.00 for it either.

 

https://www.windandweather.com/p/RG6608?aff=6158&CAWELAID=530007800000010987&CAGPSPN=pla&CAAGID=32872750045&CATCI=pla-299152938420&CATARGETID=530007800000015128&cadevice=t&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIzNy4qYWC4AIVl7rACh2iDQdPEAQYASABEgIHQPD_BwE

 

$60 for the Cocorahs gauge?  Rip-off city.  AmbientWeather has it for $34.  I think I paid about $25 twelve years ago.

[Wartburger]

Bulls-eye #6 for south-central Iowa?

 

Definitely been a good year for you guys.

[Bryan1117]

That couldn't be any farther from what is happening here right now.

I have a feeling that the computer models have absolutely no idea what to do with this system and should be thrown out completely.

 

Watching the radar might be the only way to know what is coming, the band over Lincoln and Omaha appears to be expanding and intensifying... and it’s lining up to stay around for a few hours at least.

 

The NWS posted a picture from Crete and it looks like it is coming down pretty heavy out there. I am over in Council Bluffs, IA for work today and it just started snowing here.

[East Dubzz]

I don’t really see too much of Mark Schnackenburg’s (& KWWL’s) stuff anymore with the lack of his blog chat, but i think his forecast area of 4-8” is pretty spot on.

[LincSnow]

Seems to be setting up perfect from Lincoln to Omaha. Most models show this setup southeast

[Stormhunter87]

Models are way off on this band so far. Just need it to expand or move over a few miles and I'll be in the jackpot.

[Stormhunter87]

Local mets are going towards the models and not watching this band

[badgerwx]

I don’t really see too much of Mark Schnackenburg’s (& KWWL’s) stuff anymore with the lack of his blog chat, but i think his forecast area of 4-8” is pretty spot on.

Maybe Jeff Kennedy or Craig Johnson will come back to save KWWL weather

[Wartburger]

We really should have an answer soon on if the models are correct.  The storm needs to start shifting East in the next hour for it to align with what models are predicting.

[East Dubzz]

Maybe Jeff Kennedy or Craig Johnson will come back to save KWWL weather

Don’t like Schnack? I always thought he was kind of a dickwad, but he seemed to be pretty good at what he did.

[james1976]

Maybe Jeff Kennedy or Craig Johnson will come back to save KWWL weather

Craig was great. I wonder where hes at now.

[gosaints]

Absolutely ripping..... For another couple minutes