February 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Niko]

Yeah sun angle isnt helping either

Exactly, today I had snow melting in 25F w partly to mostly cloudy skies. Hardly any sun, very little. I can only imagine what sunshine and temps in the 30s will do. That is why by mid March I am ready for Spring to arrive several days later.

[Niko]

As for temps currently, its bitterly cold outside. Readings are dropping into the lower to mid teens under crystal clear skies.

[St Paul Storm]

The 240 hr FV3, also known as the 240 hr NAM. Hard earned tax dollars went into making the GFS better. Here’s what we got. That’s scary.

[East Dubzz]

The 240 hr FV3, also known as the 240 hr NAM. Hard earned tax dollars went into making the GFS better. Here’s what we got. That’s scary.

Nice.

 

... anyone see what I did there?

[IowaHawkeyes]

Nice.

 

... anyone see what I did there?

6.9 for DBQ??

[St Paul Storm]

Nice.

... anyone see what I did there?

Lol. Well played.

[james1976]

FV3 is the new DGEX lol

[OmahaSnowFan]

0Z GFS looks good for Omaha and Lincoln this weekend. Close though....

[East Dubzz]

Over an inch of rain here this weekend on that run. Absolute yikes, but wouldn’t be shocking.

[Minny_Weather]

GFS decimates our snowpack with rain then proceeds to give us 5" of snow in 3 hours to replenish it. Okay then.

[OmahaSnowFan]

FV3 brings the low down to 987, the low over Omaha, and 30” of snow near the Nebraska and South Dakota border

[OmahaSnowFan]

Looks like the 0Z Canadian puts down 15-20” and is going to stay southeast like the GFS and like the 12Z runs of each. FV3 was northwest again at 0Z just like 12Z and like the 12Z Euro. So those are the 2 camps at this point. Will be interesting to see if the Euro stays with the FV3 tonight and if this will be the battle this week. All of the models are showing a strong storm regardless of track

[snowstorm83]

The weekend storm screams Norfolk/Sioux City special. I'm just going to wait until after the next storm to take it seriously, and we'll also be closer at that point. 

[james1976]

Makes sense to go NW. Been a while

[Craig-OmahaWX]

We shall see, the trend all winter has been for it to gradually comes back southeast. I call it...the El Nino effect.

[jcwxguy]

Euro

[Craig-OmahaWX]

EURO absolutely pounds eastern Nebraska. Wow.

[Grizzcoat]

Not something you see every day- or every winter.

[VMB443]

Quite the dramatic change in winter this past month.

[Tom]

I apologize for the delay as I've been swammped and sorta under the weather.  Here is the storm thread for the weekend storm system: http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1980-223-224-potential-major-winter-storm/

[GDR]

Wow the storm parade on the gfs is a wet dream!

[Tom]

As I've been mentioning all along, those members west and north of here who will end up having the deepest snow pack, the Grand Finale for this memorable month of Feb will be the record setting cold that is coming.  The signals I'm seeing off the models is reminiscent of what they were portraying long before the Polar Vortex intrusion of late Jan.  I'm not saying it will be that cold in terms of temps, but departures from normal will come very close, if not, surpass what happened back then.  I think the mother load of cold for so late in the season is on the table for a large part of our Sub.  Again, a lot will depend on who has snow OTG and there might be a sneaky storm (26th-27th) right before the bottom drops out.

 

Both GFS/Euro operational runs are tanking the EPO down to -5/-6 standard deviation which may dislodge the Polar Vortex yet again???  Just mind boggling to see this happen in late Feb/early March.

 

 

[Tom]

Doesn't this snow pack across the CONUS have that La Nina look to it???  The northern half of the CONUS has quite the expansive glacier while the southern tier nasooo much.  We will continue to add to that expansive snow pack up north...but, will it eventually bleed south as we progress into March???  Climo suggests otherwise, but I have this feeling we will be leaning against Climo this year esp across the Plains states when we enter March.

 

 

 

 

 

Just did some more analyzing of overnight data, but my goodness...I have not seen such a massive dip in the SOI in a very long time!  Gosh, something seriously is telling me that next month will be dubbed "March Madness" across the central CONUS.

 

Daily contribution to SOI calculation -43.61

[Tom]

I don't know about you guys, but doesn't this look magical???  I would love to witness a mountain experience they are having out west right now. #epicsnowtunnels

 

 https://twitter.com/i/status/1097593324851089408

[Niko]

Currently at 2F w sunny skies. BRRRR!

[Andie]

36* heading up to High of 38*. Low tonight 31*.

 

70% Chance rain. Rain is currently moving up from the south at 8am.

 

Stands to be pissy gnarly day.

 

That's official.

[OKwx2k4]

36* heading up to High of 38*. Low tonight 31*.

 

70% Chance rain. Rain is currently moving up from the south at 8am.

 

Stands to be pissy gnarly day.

 

That's official.

Sharing similar weather with one another today, I'm afraid. You summed it up perfectly.

It "officially" sucks.

[St Paul Storm]

Models starting to catch onto the idea of yet another upper MW storm around the 26th. This pattern is relentless.

[indianajohn]

Lake Tahoe!!! I can't even imagine that much snow.....INSANE!!!

 

[Minny_Weather]

Lake Tahoe!!! I can't even imagine that much snow.....INSANE!!!

 

I'm curious as to how they even managed to plow that.

[GDR]

Model are catching on to a southern plains monster at the end of the run gfs

[CentralNebWeather]

 

12Z GFS run.  I'd take that.

[indianajohn]

I know right!!!! that guy has to be over 6ft tall.....I'm thinking that is at least 15ft of snow

I'm curious as to how they even managed to plow that.

[Clinton]

12Z GFS.gif

 

12Z GFS run.  I'd take that.

GFS has been showing that big storm around the 4th of March a couple times so maybe it's on to something.

[St Paul Storm]

12Z GFS.gif

 

12Z GFS run.  I'd take that.

That map makes my eyes bleed, but I love it.

[Beltrami Island]

I'm curious as to how they even managed to plow that.

I think you can find pics/videos online. They don't plow, they have giant snowblowers.

[OKwx2k4]

You see that yellow spot with no snow on it?

 

 

Why? Just why? That's all I ask......

[Niko]

Clouds are increasing w snow on the way. Temps in the 20s. It will get nasty tomorrow. Some ice will fall as well after a couple of inches of snow. Under a WWA.

[james1976]

You see that yellow spot with no snow on it?

 

20190219_172804.jpg

 

Why? Just why? That's all I ask......

As much as you love winter you should move north if possible.

[jaster220]

The 240 hr FV3, also known as the 240 hr NAM. Hard earned tax dollars went into making the GFS better. Here’s what we got. That’s scary.

 

but still only manages 2 INCHES for mby- worthless junk