February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[Perturbed Member]

Yeah this is just not a widespread snow event for PDX but at least everyone should see some decent snow in the air and hopefully get at least a coating. I'm gonna stick with my trace - 1 inch. 

 

Looks like a legit snowstorm up north, should be very impressive especially after a winter that has been such trash.

[BLI snowman]

Still snowing lightly on Tuesday morning down south...

 

 

12z NAM actually revs that deformation band up significantly on Tuesday morning down here. Looking like that could be the main time to watch now for Portland.

[Prairiedog]

I know, I know. You lecture me about this every Winter. This is your teacher side coming out but I will continue to post maps that I feel need to be posted. Just sit back relax and watch this become one of the coldest and snowiest Februaries on record.

Post all you want.  That's a good thing.  We all see our maps and what others post.  Just don't make absolutes out of them.  It is possible we have an unprecidented Feb.  Good signal.  PNA looks great.  EPS looks great.  Long range looks great.  Got a ways to go.  Declaring that a drug to cure cancer 5 years out is going to happen doesn't make it happen.  Watch some of those stocks crash and burn when it doesn't happen.  You very well may win the bragging rights when this is said and done.  I don't really care.  I'm waiting for an outcome good or bad.  Sometimes I'm right sometimes I'm wrong.  Nothing is an absolute.  You do this every year. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The ICON was once again OUTSTANDING!

[TT-SEA]

Snow for Tuesday afternoon...

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Snow is pretty much done by 10 a.m. on Tuesday... here are the totals for the entire event through that time.

 

Looks good for guys up there. Hopefully it's underestimating the deformation band down here.

[Guest hawkstwelve]

Wow... 12z Euro looks even more snowy for Western WA. Exciting!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This could surpass 2008 in terms of longevity and snowfall. If we could get a second round this weekend. 

 

I got 16.5" on the valley floor east of Salem in 2008...How much did you get up there? 2008 seems a high bar to clear. 

[seattleweatherguy]

Still at 40 with a dp of 31

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Snow is pretty much done by 10 a.m. on Tuesday... here are the totals for the entire event through that time.

 

 

Wow actually ends up pretty good for the mid-valley.

[TT-SEA]

Wow... 12z Euro looks even more snowy for Western WA. Exciting!

 

 

The interesting thing about this event is that all of King County is blanketed evenly with snow and then it turns cold.    Its going to be a winter wonderland this week no matter where you go around here.   Sort of like Feb 2017 was for the Portland area.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Oregon Cascades should do well with that deformation band hanging around.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Snow is pretty much done by 10 a.m. on Tuesday... here are the totals for the entire event through that time.

 

 

[MossMan]

Winter wonderland! Not sure if it’s confusing the birds but two have hit the house in the last 5 minutes.

32.

[HighlandExperience]

I got 16.5" on the valley floor east of Salem in 2008...How much did you get up there? 2008 seems a high bar to clear. 

 

I really don't remember, I wasn't taking measurements. Maybe 15-20 inches total during that period on the eastside?

 

I just think going into a long 10 day period of cold with snow on the ground and multiple opportunities can lead to something big for us. 

[TT-SEA]

High temps on Tuesday afternoon... below freezing for the entire Seattle area.    

 

[wxmet]

Snow cover will help keep highs low through the week.

[TT-SEA]

Snow cover will help keep highs low through the week.

 

 

Big time.

[Perturbed Member]

The interesting thing about this event is that all of King County is blanketed evenly with snow and then it turns cold.    Its going to be a winter wonderland this week no matter where you go around here.   Sort of like Feb 2017 was for the Portland area.

 

Euro trended south with everything on the morning of the event for Feb 2017 and put PDX back into the action, it ended up busting though and we got nothing. 

[TT-SEA]

High temps on Wednesday...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EURO running about 1-3 degrees warmer than the 00z.

[TT-SEA]

Euro trended south with everything on the morning of the event for Feb 2017 and put PDX back into the action, it ended up busting though and we got nothing. 

 

 

I meant January 2017. 

 

Sorry.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

What the hell models is the NWS looking at? Every model shows couple inches or more for most of western wa yet no watch or advisory and then some zone forecast say up to 5 inches. I find it interesting.

[GHweatherChris]

NWS and the models are gonna bust way too low on snow totals forecasted, I can feel it.

[HighlandExperience]

I meant January 2017. 

 

Sorry.  

 

January 2017 was very painful for us up here. This will hopefully erase my memory of that. 

[MossMan]

Snowwww

[GHweatherChris]

What the hell models is the NWS looking at? Every model shows couple inches or more for most of western wa yet no watch or advisory and then some zone forecast say up to 5 inches. I find it interesting.

Ya, they are gonna look silly at the end of this event.

[seattleweatherguy]

What the hell models is the NWS looking at? Every model shows couple inches or more for most of western wa yet no watch or advisory and then some zone forecast say up to 5 inches. I find it interesting.

Yeah they don't want to admit it will snow!

[bainbridgekid]

What the hell models is the NWS looking at? Every model shows couple inches or more for most of western wa yet no watch or advisory and then some zone forecast say up to 5 inches. I find it interesting.

I've never seen the models all show such widespread snowfall inside 24 hours without even a Winter weather advisory.

 

Has to bode well.

[TT-SEA]

And here comes the reload on Friday morning... and it will start snowing on top of our already solid snow cover.   

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Kind of a bummer how much warmer this run is this week. 

[Guest hawkstwelve]

Strong winds and lots of snow blowing here in Lynden. @NWSSeattle @ScottSKOMO @MorganKIRO7 @bhamweatherBham @bhamMitty @ensembleator @lbc_weather @LJohnsonWX @AlbrechtJay @cwaughweather pic.twitter.com/ZzJjUVdbf8

— Randy Small (@RandySmall) February 3, 2019

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

And here comes the reload on Friday morning... and it will start snowing on top of our already solid snow cover.   

 

 

Your snow will stick around, but highs are shown in the upper 30s for the lowlands Wednesday and Thursday.

[Guest hawkstwelve]

What the hell models is the NWS looking at? Every model shows couple inches or more for most of western wa yet no watch or advisory and then some zone forecast say up to 5 inches. I find it interesting.

 

Based on this tweet from Jaya, they will probably be issuing one soon.

 

 

Maybe. If it looks like we will get 1-3 inches across the area, yes. Model ensemble average is about 1 inch, with some members about 3 and others 0. So the issuance of an advisory will be up to the next shift after they look at the new data.

— Jay Albrecht (@AlbrechtJay) February 3, 2019

[dairyd]

here comes the upper air trough!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

And here comes the reload on Friday morning... and it will start snowing on top of our already solid snow cover.

 

Nice!

[snow_wizard]

The Euro saves the day for Seattle.  Widespread 3 to 4 inches!  At this range the Euro is deadly accurate for precip.

[TT-SEA]

Your snow will stick around, but highs are shown in the upper 30s for the lowlands Wednesday and Thursday.

 

 

ECMWF shows a high of 35 at SEA on Wednesday with a dewpoint in the teens.   That is not going to melt much snow.  

[Guest hawkstwelve]

FWIW, the Euro may be overdoing precip amounts. It's simulated radar for 10AM has way too much precip compared to the actual radar.

 

[Jbolin]

The Euro saves the day for Seattle.  Widespread 3 to 4 inches!  At this range the Euro is deadly accurate for precip.

Yes it is

 

Time and time again within 20 hours or so the ECMWF is all "hold my beer"