February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

[Requiem]

GFS seems to be diminishing the moisture shield with each run.

 

This is really disappointing, especially since the mesoscales trended north.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not a good run north of Albany.

[Deweydog]

GFS seems to be diminishing the moisture shield with each run.

It’s starting to underestimate it so people can later say the models always underestimate it.

 

#bgsdsno

[TT-SEA]

Eugene might be too far north.  

 

They are on the line on Monday afternoon.  

[Requiem]

Eugene might be too far north.  

 

They are on the line on Monday afternoon.  

 

That's actually ridiculous.

[Guest Sounder]

Not all periods are updating on Tropical Tidbits... annoying.

Pivotal Weather has them

[TacomaWaWx]

Wonder what the low going so far south means for the overall pattern and what will happen after Monday

[wxmet]

Trough from the north is further south on this run. Result is a further south track of the surface low unfortunately.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS actually moves the low ESE along the OR/CA border. Wow. Looks like we wished a little too hard for a southern trend lol.

[Deweydog]

Cold always wins.

[joaqweri]

00z GFS continuing southward, landfall on the OR/CA stateline and barely affecting areas north of maybe salem

[Requiem]

GFS actually moves the low ESE along the OR/CA border. Wow. Looks like we wished a little too hard for a southern trend lol.

 

Any hope of this stupid trend reversing itself a bit?

[TT-SEA]

FV3 also shifted a little south... but its better than the GFS.

 

[Requiem]

That seems to be the theme of this winter for PDX, either too far north or too far south, sadly.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

That seems to be the theme of this winter for PDX, either too far north or too far south, sadly.

 

?

[Requiem]

?

 

As in California south.

[Jesse]

Any hope of this stupid trend reversing itself a bit?

Only if you take the rest of the night off.

[Requiem]

Only if you take the rest of the night off.

 

Sure. You don't know what I'd do for a good snowstorm.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty amazing. Not even close to snow at PDX  now. Cue the weeping and gnashing of teeth.

[FroYoBro]

Time to really start praying for the last 24 hour trend to the north!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

As in California south.

 

Mixed it up.  I feel like there hasn't really been a theme of things going south of PDX to this point since the cold season began in Oct.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

00Z GEM/UKMET/EURO. All eyes now on you.

[HighlandExperience]

Pretty amazing. Not even close to snow at PDX now. Cue the weeping and gnashing of teeth.

Wow crazy.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sure. You don't know what I'd do for a good snowstorm.

 

Thought all you wanted was a good bluster.

[Requiem]

Thought all you wanted was a good bluster.

 

Well, a 12/12/95 type storm was obviously not going to happen this year, so I went to my next favorite thing!

[Esquimalt]

GeM way south

[FroYoBro]

GEM is also way south from the 12z. Barely clips the Portland metro area with some light stuff. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I doubt it will come in that far south.

[HighlandExperience]

GeM way south

Portland NWS probably made the right call for 1-3 inches

[Timmy]

Gem went to crap

[Requiem]

Portland NWS probably made the right call for 1-3 inches

 

Even that seems a bit high lol

[Deweydog]

Looks chilly and breezy though early in the week.

 

Portland Public School children may get to walk into school in some high-angled sunshine!

[El_Nina]

Wouldn't climo favor this system to come in further north?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Wouldn't climo favor this system to come in further north?

 

Hasn't been a year where that has applied much I feel.

[Deweydog]

Wouldn't climo favor this system to come in further north?

Grab a flashlight and go out in the yard under the master bedroom window and see if you can find it. If you do, bring it in and plug it in.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Doesn't look like any significant snow north of Eugene now. 

[TT-SEA]

I doubt it will come in that far south.

 

 

This has to be the most dramatic southward shift I have seen in the 3 days leading up to an event.

 

It appeared that Seattle would be buried just yesterday morning and now we are not even sure if Eugene will get much snow.

 

Usually trends stabilize within 3 days.    

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Well, a 12/12/95 type storm was obviously not going to happen this year, so I went to my next favorite thing!

 

That sucks, it looked like you guys had it in the bag, but the GFS is ridiculously accurate at 36 hours out.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Heavy wet snow falling up in Nanaimo this evening:

 

http://images.drivebc.ca/bchighwaycam/pub/cameras/645.jpg

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Storms going into California is not uncommon during El Nino, and we saw a lot of that earlier this winter.