Tom Posted February 19, 2019 Report Share Posted February 19, 2019 Alright folks, the beat goes on and yet another major winter storm seems to be taking shape across the central Plains into the western GL's over the weekend. Some members on here across the Plains will have back-to-back Majors while the rest of us may have to deal with heavy rain and possible thunderstorms??? Could this end up being a monster Blizzard??? Let's discuss... Both the GFS/EURO are showing max wind gusts approaching 45-50mph across parts of NE/IA and areas nearby. Quite an impressive system showing up with lots of potential to be one of the seasons strongest storms. 00z Euro...here are the totals so subtract at least 6-10" across much of MN/IA and E NE.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 19, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 19, 2019 Here's a comparison between both the EPS/GEFS in terms of placement of the heaviest snow through the weekend. GEFS are farther NW than the EPS. EPS has nudged somewhat S/SE across the MW and may play a big role for IA peeps, but I think those in NE are looking good as well as into MN. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 19, 2019 Report Share Posted February 19, 2019 Wind and convective potential. Someone will get clobbered. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 19, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 19, 2019 06z GEFS...this storm is a text book TX PanHandle/Western GL's cutter....somebody is absolutely going to get crushed by this one... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 19, 2019 Report Share Posted February 19, 2019 Man there are some big players in that field above. These next 7 days are going to be a wild ride for some peeps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted February 19, 2019 Report Share Posted February 19, 2019 Loving that this falls on a weekend! Could I being riding in a foot of powder once again! #fingerscrossed Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted February 19, 2019 Report Share Posted February 19, 2019 It looks very much like the storm track will continue to be NW of lower Michigan. At this time the GRR NWS office is saying nothing to look at here for us. We look to be on the mild side of the systems so while we see some precipitation as either snow, freezing rain or just rain it all should be light. For all of the snow lovers off to the the west and north west congratulations. With clear skies the low here at my house was -1.4° and the current temperature is +4.3° and there is 8" of snow on the ground. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 19, 2019 Report Share Posted February 19, 2019 Well this storm may destroy my snowpack, but at least it's gonna be nice enough to replace it at the end Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 19, 2019 Report Share Posted February 19, 2019 DMX current take on it. Strong t-storms in the wording and if that wraps around into the cold sector look out: Attention shifts to yet another winter storm that may impact most to all of Iowa Saturday into Sunday. At this time, the track is still very touchy. There appears to be strong WAA ahead of the system, and strong CAA behind this system. Further, in the WAA wing, long-range models show a 60kt 850mb jet that may transport moisture into this system from the Gulf of Mexico. This would certainly support thunderstorms... possibly strong thunderstorms. On the backside, the CAA may support decent snowfall totals. If this system pans out as is currently shown, winds will likely be very strong on the backside of this system on Sunday, which would lead to blowing and drifting of the fallen snow. At this time, too far out to get into fine mesoscale details, but the track of this potential system absolutely bears monitoring... especially for those with travel plans over the weekend. This could have significant impacts on travel across Iowa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 19, 2019 Report Share Posted February 19, 2019 I will say this storm looks to be a weather geek's dream and if we had no snowpack I'd take it as the GFS is showing it right now. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarmerRick Posted February 19, 2019 Report Share Posted February 19, 2019 FV3 is not impressed for SE Nebraska. Central-NE gets buried. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 19, 2019 Report Share Posted February 19, 2019 OAX is going balls deep in Euro with this one. Only mentions rain between 1300 and 1700 on Saturday and even then it's a rain/snow mix. SaturdaySnow before 1pm, then rain and snow between 1pm and 5pm, then snow after 5pm. Cloudy, with a high near 35.Saturday NightSnow, mainly before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. Blustery. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 19, 2019 Report Share Posted February 19, 2019 FV3 is not impressed for SE Nebraska. Central-NE gets buried. Hope it doesn't go much more NW but always a possibility in these dynamic storms. Should be fun tracking this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 19, 2019 Report Share Posted February 19, 2019 12Z GFS FV3 would bury me like my area is Buffalo New York. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 19, 2019 Report Share Posted February 19, 2019 12z GEM goes down to 974mb as it swings through WI. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 19, 2019 Report Share Posted February 19, 2019 12z UK - Last night's run had the heavy precip swath up in Minneapolis. I don't see the Cedar Rapids/Iowa City area getting into the good snow band. Nebraska through northern Iowa and southern/central Minnesota and into central/northern Wisconsin seems like the most likely outcome. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 19, 2019 Report Share Posted February 19, 2019 It will be mostly rain for I 80 south Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted February 19, 2019 Report Share Posted February 19, 2019 SE trend is for real this season though. UK and Euro have usually sniffed that out first too. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 19, 2019 Report Share Posted February 19, 2019 12z Euro goes 979mb as it crosses C WI. Yowza! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 19, 2019 Report Share Posted February 19, 2019 Gonna be an absolute mess around here this weekend between the melting snow and rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 19, 2019 Report Share Posted February 19, 2019 12z euro 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted February 19, 2019 Report Share Posted February 19, 2019 12z euroEuro even further southeast than the 0Z from last night. I feel pretty good knowing the Euro is in my court as well as the GFS. The FV3 is whacky as we all know..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 19, 2019 Report Share Posted February 19, 2019 That's going to be quite the potent snowstorm that just misses my area to the nw. This is climatology, though. I can't expect a strong, wrapped-up low to track over St. Louis this late in the season. I don't see anything in the upper air graphics that leads me to believe this could track much, if any, farther south than this. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 19, 2019 Report Share Posted February 19, 2019 That's going to be quite the potent snowstorm that just misses my area to the nw. This is climatology, though. I can't expect a strong, wrapped-up low to track over St. Louis this late in the season. I don't see anything in the upper air graphics that leads me to believe this could track much, if any, farther south than this.. I agree I see more of a nw shift coming in future runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 19, 2019 Report Share Posted February 19, 2019 I'm not sure forecasting based off climo is the best move for this storm. After all, this winter has been a massive eff you to climo. Houston saw snow in mid-November. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted February 19, 2019 Report Share Posted February 19, 2019 18Z GFS another nice hit for eastern Nebraska. 6-12" from eastern Nebraska to central/northern WI 18Z FV3 has definitely shifted southeast. Good runs today... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted February 19, 2019 Report Share Posted February 19, 2019 MSP AFD for the long term mentioned this storm bringing a foot or more possibly. Not very typical of them to be that bold. Will have to see how well that idea ages. They also mentioned how systems like this tend to trend north as time closes in. Curious to see if something along those lines happens. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 19, 2019 Report Share Posted February 19, 2019 TWC has ALREADY named this storm Quianna. hahaAnd mentioned blizzard conditions for E Iowa Sunday. We'll see 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 TWC has ALREADY named this storm Quianna. hahaAnd mentioned blizzard conditions for E Iowa Sunday. We'll seeExample # 1 billion of why TWC is trash. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfweather Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 TWC has ALREADY named this storm Quianna. hahaAnd mentioned blizzard conditions for E Iowa Sunday. We'll seeHaha- I just watched the local news (Schnack) and they said it’ll be mostly rain Saturday and light snow Sunday. He was more concerned about western Iowa Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 Gotta watch the backside of this storm as colder air rushes in on Sunday. Rain changing to snow late Sunday pm into the evening could create hazardous conditions. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 CPC taking the lame non-committal route by not breaking-down their best guess as to who sees SN/Mix/RN. Certainly at this range they should have some idea where those boundaries will fall. Makes me think someone from GRR x-fer'd into CPC Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 Gfs came farther SE Takes the low to Milwaukee ish Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 GFS https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019022000&fh=108&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_024h&m=gfs 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 CPC taking the lame non-committal route by not breaking-down their best guess as to who sees SN/Mix/RN. Certainly at this range they should have some idea where those boundaries will fall. Makes me think someone from GRR x-fer'd into CPC All these models are a joke, I would be doing the same thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 Gfs came farther SE Takes the low to Milwaukee ishCMC very similar track-wise. Little weaker, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 Whoa, 00z UK good jump south, tracks the low from southeast KS to Quincy, to Chicago, big deformation zone snow misses Omaha to the south, clobbers areas from sw Iowa through eastern Iowa and southern Wisconsin. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 Euro like the UKIE-- S and E. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaHawkeyes Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 Got a map that shows snow? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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