March 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EURO looks good. Pretty chilly the next 10 days. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The last five weeks of Euro runs probably didn’t help.

Yeah.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

God that is so scary and I am so glad to hear that you don't actually have cancer. Watch out for the little things a lot

cause that's where the cancer hides.

Yeah, at that time I was stressed out and eating crap. Probably a sign my body was telling me something. Never again will I do that.

[Phil]

I'm just going off what my colleague at PSU found. He defended his MS thesis on this subject last month. The SPV (not TPV) made its southernmost traverse during the reanalysis era in that Dec. 1989 cold wave, based on his specific definition of what counts as the southern extent of the SPV. He was using an index based on zonal winds and gph anomalies, I think. Incidentally, he found that the southernmost excursion of the TPV was in December 1997 when it passed through Mexico. This is, again, based on his own analysis and not published literature. I actually remember the Dec. 1997 event - produced all-time record lows in Mexico and brought a famous snowstorm to Guadalajara.

 

Having said that, this was only a masters thesis so there's always a chance he didn't use the most appropriate methods, data, etc. Also his goal was to analyze PV extent changes in climate model projections, so maybe the metrics he used were better suited for coarse grain analysis like that, versus identifying single events.

Oh, did he mean the southern *edge* of the PV? Or just the latitude of the overall PV? I thought you were referring to the latter. It was in elongated/wave-1 mode during the 12/89 blast, but definitely still intact.

 

As for the TPV in Mexico..I don’t want to be dismissive or anything, but I don’t think that’s physically possible. What I’m seeing there in Dec ‘97 is a deep ULL with a consistent STJ/diabatic feed thanks to the super niño. The TPV appears to be in Siberia/AK, no?

[Phil]

It would help to know what height/pressure level he’s using? The answer to the “southernmost extent” question re: SPV seems to vary by altitude. For instance, the PV structure at 100mb/tropopause is rarely homogenous to the structure at 1mb/stratopause/etc.

[Phil]

Is it me or has there been some sort of shitstorm surrounding Tim for the better part of the last 12 hours? Historic stuff!

- Clear air mode.

- Maps of EPS showing ridging back in mid-Feb.

- Snowmelt trolling from Hawaii.

- SEA is warm and -50*F departures are unimpressive.

- Phil lied about Stampede Pass and wants me to suffer.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Dude, it started with the first cold trough back in early February. He just masked it with with WxBell posts.

 

Remember:

 

- Clear air mode.

- Maps of EPS showing ridging back in mid-Feb.

- Snowmelt trolling from Hawaii.

- SEA is warm and -50*F departures are unimpressive.

- Phil lied about Stampede Pass and wants me to suffer.

 

It’s been an epic tirade.

 

I have an alternative theory. Tim is actually a huge cold weather loving weenie and everything he posts otherwise is reverse psychology. He's actually super pissed he hasn't had any snow since early February and has largely missed out on this cold snap.

[Phil]

As someone who has a parent with pancreatic and liver cancer, count your blessing at night. Anything can happen at any moment.

I’m so sorry to hear that.

 

The friend I lost recently died of a rare form of breast cancer (the kind that doesn’t manifest as a lump or anything like that).

 

The fact she didn’t tell me or anyone else that she had it and was receiving treatment made it all the more difficult and upsetting. It was like a bolt from the blue, and it helped me realize what I’ve been taking for granted all this time. I will certainly be counting my blessings daily going forward.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Emotional in here tonight.  One big happy family. 

[Phil]

Now 33 consecutive spotless days. This surpasses the longest spotless streak of the 2008 solar minimum, which was 32 days from July 31 to August 31, 2008.

 

Will be tough, but if we can string 13 more together, we will tie the bizarre stretch of 46 consecutive spotless days that occurred back in the 1996 solar minimum. That wasn’t a super deep minimum, but those 7-8 weeks were absolutely lights out, for whatever reason.

[ShawniganLake]

Now 33 consecutive spotless days. This surpasses the longest spotless streak of the 2008 solar minimum, which was 32 days from July 31 to August 31, 2008.

 

Will be tough, but if we can string 13 more together, we will tie the bizarre stretch of 46 consecutive spotless days that occurred back in the 1996 solar minimum. That wasn’t a super deep minimum, but those 7-8 weeks were absolutely lights out, for whatever reason.

1996 and 2008. I’m feeling a big December

[Phil]

Intriguingly, the frequency of prominences (smoothed) has been even less than during the last solar minimum at this stage.

 

Very interesting.

 

http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/SC24web/BAACMX.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some great information on how February in Bend, OR stacked up historically from KTVZ. All around it was an incredible month in Central Oregon. The article is worth a read, but here are some highlights.

 

Snowfall record: 45.8" (Previous record 23.3" February 1917)

Mean Temp: 27.0 (-7.2 departure) 3rd Coldest February on Record

Precip: 4.48" (+3.39") 2nd wettest February on record at Bend (Record 4.50" 1927)

 

https://www.ktvz.com/news/bend-s-nearly-4-feet-of-feb-snow-smashes-century-old-record/1049824817?fbclid=IwAR3A30tBgYHOG2Ii2zI2i_thHeibUI6fyNuGtDLaEESa0AcJN3wm7F9S9AM

[SilverFallsAndrew]

East wind backing off a bit at PDX and down to 28 there. 

 

21 at Hillsboro... Brrrrrr

[TigerWoodsLibido]

26 here. Feels good out there.

[TT-SEA]

- Clear air mode.

- Maps of EPS showing ridging back in mid-Feb.

- Snowmelt trolling from Hawaii.

- SEA is warm and -50*F departures are unimpressive.

- Phil lied about Stampede Pass and wants me to suffer.

Woke up to pee. Never should check here when I do that.

 

Is this serious? Wow!

 

Such random things. Hilarious. I live in your head.

 

1) I always notice clear air mode. Always.

 

2) Back in mid February I originally said I just could not believe the EPS showed anything other than complete ice box. It had been a solid month of showing non stop extreme cold on that model without wavering even once. None of us had ever seen anything like that in the models.

 

3) National Guard was called into North Bend when we were in Hawaii. God d@mn right I was going to hope for snow melt!

 

4) SEA has been blessedly mild during this latest arctic blast. Same here. Still 35 here. May not even go below freezing tonight.

 

And I do not think a -50 departure is impressive?? My post was dripping with sarcasm to show how relatively mild it is in Seattle. I told Kayla that her -50 is nothing compared to the -6 at SEA. So you take THAT post literally and 2 minutes later I say to wxstatman that the Bozeman data is completely crazy and you ignore that? And all the other posts expressing amazement over the numbers from Bozeman.

 

Wow!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 1 at Pendleton, OR which ties their all-time March low. 

 

The Dalles down to 10, threatening their all-time March low set yesterday.

 

21 here, almost unthinkable back to back lows in the teens could happen in March. I can't wait until the Silver Falls data from this month and February is made public in a few months. If they hit the teens last night it would be the first time since the 1970s they dropped below 20 in March.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

In most years we would be making a big deal out of the system dropping in on Thursday. 850mb ensemble mean at PDX falls to -8C by Friday morning. 

[Guest CulverJosh]

Should be a fun day of tracking the northward movement of precip.

[FroYoBro]

Not as cold this morning as yesterday here. 28 right now. 

[El_Nina]

23 here again. Looks like the coldest low of the winter, which was 21 on Feb 10th, is going to remain safe.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like wind died here. Went from 35 at 2 a.m. to 29 now.

 

Not quite coldest reading of winter... it was 12 degrees after the first snowfall last month.

 

SEA is also down to 29.

[jcmcgaffey]

Jared says its mostly in the summer... and on sunny days.

 

Not on any day of the year in any weather. I know SEA was running colder than downtown Seattle last month when it was dumping snow there and raining in Seattle.

I see what you are saying in rare circumstances but my point was that it always runs warmer than the general vicinity within 5 miles which is on top of the general UHI affect when comparing historical temps.

[Tyler Mode]

19.8 for a low so far.  Breaking my previous March record of 23.

[TacomaWaWx]

Very cold this AM in eastsound San Juan’s. Says it was 26 here last night. I believe it all the ponds and even some of the water on the beaches was frozen last night in place. Never seen that on a saltwater beach...will see how cold it is above 2000’ this afternoon

[TT-SEA]

I see what you are saying in rare circumstances but my point was that it always runs warmer than the general vicinity within 5 miles which is on top of the general UHI affect when comparing historical temps.

 

 

I don't even think that is true.   

 

I just checked now and its 30 at SEA... while 32 at the Normandy Park station just to the west and 30 in Burrien just to the northwest and 32 at another station just to the east.

 

 

 

Jared says it seems to be 1-2 degrees warmer but primarily on summer days and when its sunny.    So the majority of the time its pretty accurate and the sensor is functioning fine as well.   

[TT-SEA]

Very cold this AM in eastsound San Juan’s. Says it was 26 here last night. I believe it all the ponds and even some of the water on the beaches was frozen last night in place. Never seen that on a saltwater beach...will see how cold it is above 2000’ this afternoon

 

 

I love Eastsound!  

 

Gorgeous  place.  

[Geos]

About 26° right now. Not quite as cold as yesterday morning.

[El_Nina]

19.8 for a low so far.  Breaking my previous March record of 23.

Wow.

[Kayla]

-33F at BZN this morning. Through the first 4 days this month they are running a -41.9  departure. A balmy -14F at my house this morning slightly above the valley floor.

 

One more fun fact with this never ending cold. Great Falls, Cut Bank and Havre, MT were all 27 to 28ºF below average for the entire month of February. These are the largest departures from normal in the lower 48 since 14 Montana stations reached equal levels in January 1969.

 

Still can't believe the historic nature of these past 4 weeks.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It appears The Dalles broke the all-time March record they set yesterday when they hit 6 this morning. 

[TT-SEA]

-33F at BZN this morning. Through the first 4 days this month they are running a -41.9  departure. A balmy -14F at my house this morning slightly above the valley floor.

 

One more fun fact with this never ending cold. Great Falls, Cut Bank and Havre, MT were all 27 to 28ºF below average for the entire month of February. These are the largest departures from normal in the lower 48 since 14 Montana stations reached equal levels in January 1969.

 

Still can't believe the historic nature of these past 4 weeks.

 

 

Montana has really been ground zero.     Might not see this kind of persistent cold again in our lifetime.  

[BLI snowman]

19 here, latest teens I have seen here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Dipped to 19 here this morning for our 2nd straight low in the teens. In the 8 years prior our lowest March minimum was 23. Will be interesting to see if the park made it into the teens. If so it would be the first time in March they have hit the teens since 1976 and the latest in the season since 1965.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

19 here, latest teens I have seen here.

 

Very possible that is the latest low in the teens at your location since the 50s. 

[TacomaWaWx]

I love Eastsound!

 

Gorgeous place.

yeah no snow here at sea level but once you go into the park and get some elevation there’s solid snowpack it’s very interesting to see on an island!

[Jesse]

Low of at least 25 at PDX. 21 at VUO.

 

Hit 20 here which is by far the coldest I’ve ever seen in March.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

There's an olive garden at Stampede pass now?

[Blizzard777]

Currently 22*

Dew point 12*

10 minute wind adverage 0

Clear morning once again

 

Low of 21*

[MossMan]

There's an olive garden at Stampede pass now?

Yes we covered this last night. It’s on the other side of the street from Walgreens and the Costco in the strip mall. Traffic is a ***** however.