June 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

Fort those who live near the GL's, yesterday was about as lousy a day you will you see in June.  We started the day off around 60F, but temps dropped steadily into the mid 50's throughout the day.  It's back to "hoodie" weather on this cloudy and cool Monday.

 

 

Bill Snyder

‏Verified account @billyweather 13h13 hours ago

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The official high of 60° today is not only 20° below normal and equals the normal high on Oct 23rd, but the coldest June 16th in #Chicago in 105 yrs (59° in 1914)

 

 

 

 

This is a crazy stat as we are lacking any sort of real warmth...but are there signs that will change???

 

 

 

 

The 00z Euro is still suggesting a real nice push of Summer warmth up into the MW on Saturday and a couple days of severe weather around the region Fri/Sat.  Possible mid/upper 80's on Saturday in Chicago???  Let's see if it holds.  I will say, the model is now seeing that Greenland Block coming back in the 6-10 day.  As for rain potential, the Euro is the most aggressive and paints nearly 10" in spots across SE IA.  From NE all the way east into IN there is the potential for copious moisture this week into the early next week. 

 

An interesting system mid week (Plains-Lower Lakes Summer Cutter???), which will prob have a comma shape to it on radar, is poised to traverse the Plains//MW/Lower Lakes similar to storms we tracked in the winter.  This system is on the LRC schedule and has showed up since LRC cycle #1 began but it will be the summer version this time.  It lines up with the March 13th-14th Plains Bomb Cyclone.

 

[Bryan1117]

For areas recovering from this spring and summer’s flooding here in NE\IA, the rainfall amounts the Euro is spitting out for areas south of here is the absolute last thing those people need to see.

 

The Missouri River is finally dropping below flood stage in several spots, however 10+ inches of rain would lead us back to the same issues we have been having the last three months. Some rain wouldn’t hurt, but we don’t need those ridiculous amounts around here.

[Tom]

For areas recovering from this spring and summer’s flooding here in NE\IA, the rainfall amounts the Euro is spitting out for areas south of here is the absolute last thing those people need to see.

 

The Missouri River is finally dropping below flood stage in several spots, however 10+ inches of rain would lead us back to the same issues we have been having the last three months. Some rain wouldn’t hurt, but we don’t need those ridiculous amounts around here.

 

I'm concerned we will see a repeat performance from nature like we saw in May but maybe not to the extreme that last cycle produced.  The 00z Euro is painting an ugly picture with 4-6" of rain across those same areas and pockets of 6-8".  This year has been one of those extreme weather patterns that just don't want to break.  Unfortunately, this will not be good for the farmers and those who live near the rivers.

[Tom]

I really enjoy seeing the weather maps line up with important calendar dates.  Our Summer seasons "Ring of Fire" pattern sets up just as we welcome the Summer Solstice.  I'm anticipating a large severe wx threat across the Plains/MW later this week into the weekend.  The fuel will be present as well as the spark needed to ignite some strong storms.

 

All the models are showing heat/humidity to build across the central Plains on Friday...nearly 80F DP's???  Summer will finally make an appearance to those who have been itching for it.

 

 

 

[Niko]

Cloudy and cool temps presently w a few showers scattered about and temps are hovering in the nippy 50s.

[Andie]

Hey Tom, Did your cousin make into DFW?

 

 

I got a call at 3:30am...it was my husband asking me to open the front door, a co worker was dropping him off.

DFW cancelled a lot of flights after trying to reschedule them. We try again at noon. The radar down on the coast toward NOLA looked bad as that system didn't budge when it hit the coast.

 

We're both exhausted. And furthermore, have no idea if his 2nd bag is going to make it. He may be a ratty looking conferencee!

 

Seems these systems have a mind of their own this year.

[East Dubzz]

This weather has been crazy. I'm not complaining at all, because I prefer it to be in the 70s like it has been, but it just doesn't feel like it's should be the middle of June already. 

[Stacsh]

Per GRR: 

 

"Looking toward this weekend and beyond, there are bonafide signs of
a more summer-like pattern setting up in the Great Lakes. Both ECMWF
and GFS ensemble forecast guidance (aided by detail within
deterministic counterparts) suggest a strong pacific jet will
transition into semi-persistent troughing over the western US and
ridging across the east by this weekend. Rising heights and
southwesterly low-level flow will allow for temperatures to return
to (and stay in) the 80s potentially as early as next weekend.
However such a pattern may also come at a cost; the ECMWF daily mean
instability from next weekend and beyond exceeds 500 J/kg
signaling what may be the start of active convective period."

 

Please please please be true. 

[westMJim]

Yet another cloudy cool June day. So far this month has a mean temperature here at Grand Rapids of just 63.5° and yesterday for the 2^nd time is just 5 days Grand Rapids had a top coldest maximum day. With yesterdays high of only 62 Grand Rapids had its 3^rd coldest maximum for June 16^th in recorded history with only 55 in 1974 and 61 in 1982 being colder. At this time it is cloudy and a cool 57 here at my house.

[Tom]

Hey Tom, Did your cousin make into DFW?

 

 

I got a call at 3:30am...it was my husband asking me to open the front door, a co worker was dropping him off.

DFW cancelled a lot of flights after trying to reschedule them. We try again at noon. The radar down on the coast toward NOLA looked bad as that system didn't budge when it hit the coast.

 

We're both exhausted. And furthermore, have no idea if his 2nd bag is going to make it. He may be a ratty looking conferencee!

 

Seems these systems have a mind of their own this year.

He sure did....arrived around 8:30am local time...its unfortunate your husband had deal with the cancelled flights and I'm sure it was a long evening for ya'll.  

[jaster220]

Fort those who live near the GL's, yesterday was about as lousy a day you will you see in June.  We started the day off around 60F, but temps dropped steadily into the mid 50's throughout the day.  It's back to "hoodie" weather on this cloudy and cool Monday.

 

 

 

 

 

This is a crazy stat as we are lacking any sort of real warmth...but are there signs that will change???

 

 

 

 

The 00z Euro is still suggesting a real nice push of Summer warmth up into the MW on Saturday and a couple days of severe weather around the region Fri/Sat.  Possible mid/upper 80's on Saturday in Chicago???  Let's see if it holds.  I will say, the model is now seeing that Greenland Block coming back in the 6-10 day.  As for rain potential, the Euro is the most aggressive and paints nearly 10" in spots across SE IA.  From NE all the way east into IN there is the potential for copious moisture this week into the early next week. 

 

An interesting system mid week (Plains-Lower Lakes Summer Cutter???), which will prob have a comma shape to it on radar, is poised to traverse the Plains//MW/Lower Lakes similar to storms we tracked in the winter.  This system is on the LRC schedule and has showed up since LRC cycle #1 began but it will be the summer version this time.  It lines up with the March 13th-14th Plains Bomb Cyclone.

 

 

 

There's '92 showing it's stuff, eh? Where I lived in NMI true heat was pretty rare and a chill in the air was much more common even in summer. So my experience back then was much less annoying than what we've been getting downstate. This month's just been incredibly bad for this far south in The Mitt.

 

As for that Lwr Lake system. If it holds that track as shown, that would be exactly what DIDN'T HAPPEN last winter. That's actually been MIA during the last 3 winters (11-26-18 ofc was autumn - doesn't count). Sure would be nice to see it come back around post Dec 1st

[james1976]

Nice cluster of storms in NW IA heading this way. Wonder if it will hold together. Forecast was for it to remain dry here til tomorrow.

[Tom]

There's '92 showing it's stuff, eh? Where I lived in NMI true heat was pretty rare and a chill in the air was much more common even in summer. So my experience back then was much less annoying than what we've been getting downstate. This month's just been incredibly bad for this far south in The Mitt.

 

As for that Lwr Lake system. If it holds that track as shown, that would be exactly what DIDN'T HAPPEN last winter. That's actually been MIA during the last 3 winters (11-26-18 ofc was autumn - doesn't count). Sure would be nice to see it come back around post Dec 1st

That's funny you mention that year, bc today at the gym, this guy I talk to about the weather mentioned how bad that Summer was and compared it to how this Spring has been.  As for the midweek system, it's still up in the air who will get the heaviest rains but a healthy soaker is in the cards.  The 12z Euro still suggesting a nice push of warm air Fri/Sat around here but not as warm as last nights run of upper 80's.  Friday night Boomers across E NE/IA look legit and then overnight in a weakening state into WI/IL/IN.  Saturday night looks like the best chance for any Severe Wx for our region.

[CentralNebWeather]

Many areas of Nebraska now placed in a Flash Flood Watch for potential of 3-5” of rain through late Tuesday night. The wet pattern continues with really no end in sight. We have been fortunate in this area that the crops got planted, but most fields are behind schedule.

[Stormy]

I'm concerned we will see a repeat performance from nature like we saw in May but maybe not to the extreme that last cycle produced. The 00z Euro is painting an ugly picture with 4-6" of rain across those same areas and pockets of 6-8". This year has been one of those extreme weather patterns that just don't want to break. Unfortunately, this will not be good for the farmers and those who live near the rivers.

Exactly what I was thinking as far as maybe repeating what we saw in May. The CPC 6-10 & 8-14 outlook maps recently had reminded me of how they looked in May with near average temps across Iowa along the baroclinic zone and warmer to the southeast and cooler to the northwest, though the 8-14 day outlook now has warmer than normal chances for Iowa as well.

 

That’s amazing that Chicago only made it up to 60° yesterday! I thought the high of 70° with overcast here was coolish. That would sometimes be kind of a bummer with that cool lake breeze.

 

Edit: I checked again and my high was 71° on Sunday.

[Niko]

Some sunshine and clouds currently w temps warming nicely finally into the 70s.

[Stormy]

Many areas of Nebraska now placed in a Flash Flood Watch for potential of 3-5” of rain through late Tuesday night. The wet pattern continues with really no end in sight. We have been fortunate in this area that the crops got planted, but most fields are behind schedule.

Iowa was fortunate as well as far as planting progress compared with states to our east or around us. My area, or se. Ia. wasn’t as fortunate though, but we have much to be thankful for either way!

[Tom]

Exactly what I was thinking as far as maybe repeating what we saw in May. The CPC 6-10 & 8-14 outlook maps recently had reminded me of how they looked in May with near average temps across Iowa along the baroclinic zone and warmer to the southeast and cooler to the northwest, though the 8-14 day outlook now has warmer than normal chances for Iowa as well.

 

That’s amazing that Chicago only made it up to 60° yesterday! I thought the high of 70° with overcast here was coolish. That would sometimes be kind of a bummer with that cool lake breeze.

Its only 66F today, overcast, with a breeze out of the NE...hey, at least we are stair stepping our way up!  Looking forward to tomorrow's upper 70's and sunshine in the afternoon.  BTW, the 12z Euro still painting a nice "warm up" by Friday for our region and into the weekend.  Can't wait.

[Niko]

Just looked at my extended forecast and looks like more wet weather by Wednesday into Thursday. Cant seem to catch a break from this pattern. I.E., we get a day or 2 dry weather and then, it rains and vice versa. Looks like some 80s try to push in SEMI by the weekend and especially into next week. Fingers crossed.

[Andie]

The National Weather Service says an EF-1 tornado touched down in North Arlington Sunday afternoon, not far from Globe Life Park.

 

An NWS survey team determined the tornado was on the ground for about a minute and covered about two miles with wind speeds up to 95mob

NBC

 

Quite a storm. Limbs down all around DFW Airport.

 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings talking of below normal temps but dews increasing this week to 60’s to 70. We won’t be used to that type of humidity around here. Also mentioned that sub soil moisture is in the 99th percentile so no where for heavy rain to go. Also lakes and reservoirs full.

[Stormhunter87]

Around 2 or 3 we had a little thunderhead roll through but it just dumped rain. Hardest I've seen it recently. Very wet pattern local mets are going 3-4 in Omaha.

[Hawkeye]

The last couple days had a thick low cloud deck through midday, but both days ended up sunny and delightful.

 

 

My cousin is at the airport in Cedar Rapids, IA waiting to catch a flight into DFW. They have been delayed indefinitely. On the bright side, they had a great time exploring the city and learning about the Czech and Slovak culture. They also had a 100 person family reunion on his wife’s side of the family. I did not know there was a such a big Czech and Slovak history in CR.

 

Yep.  The national Czech & Slovak museum is in Cedar Rapids.  I've never been in the place, even though I'm Czech.

[jaster220]

Exactly what I was thinking as far as maybe repeating what we saw in May. The CPC 6-10 & 8-14 outlook maps recently had reminded me of how they looked in May with near average temps across Iowa along the baroclinic zone and warmer to the southeast and cooler to the northwest, though the 8-14 day outlook now has warmer than normal chances for Iowa as well.

 

That’s amazing that Chicago only made it up to 60° yesterday! I thought the high of 70° with overcast here was coolish. That would sometimes be kind of a bummer with that cool lake breeze.

 

It wasn't just the lake breeze. I'm nowhere near a GL and had a noon temp of 57F. Took til 2:30 to crack 60F. Spiked to 63F for a few minutes but fell to 61F around 5 pm and stuck there literally for the next 10 hrs straight. On track to be the most miserable June of my SMI life-time. 

[Tom]

"June Gloom" continues this morning here in Chicago as I'm under a Dense Fog Advisory with viz >1/4 mi, but that shouldn't last and skies should clear up as the June sunshine burns off the fog later this morning.  Can't wait for the mid/upper 70's later today and sunshine!  Gosh, I don't know how people in the PAC NW (or other places around the world) can deal with cloudy, misty, dreary days.  I know I've been spoiled this past May being in AZ where literally most days were filled with sunshine, esp during sunrises when I can enjoy my cup of coffee and get the day cranking.  The Sun plays such a big role in our psyche.

 

Speaking of the Sun, it's been Zzzzzzzzz quiet for a consecutive 30-day stretch, the longest of this Solar cycle.

 

 

 

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 30 days
2019 total: 104 days (62%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)

[Tom]

Reality is setting in for this coming weekend as the Euro is trending towards what the new "upgraded" GFS has been showing all along.  More blocking across Canada is being drawn up and the push of very warm (upper 80's) seems to be dissipating and more reasonable low 80's with waves of showers/storms this weekend.  One thing that is for certain, it will feel tropical starting out west and heading here this weekend.  DP's in the low 70's being advertised by all the models will certainly aid in the "Summer" feel around here.

[Tom]

I'm seeing some outlets jumping on the idea of a big GL's warm spell late this month into the 4th of July (esp our local guy Skilling).  Trust the models or trust the LRC???  You guys know where I stand in terms of predicting a long range forecast.  With that being said, my intuition is "seeing" the progression of the Summer pattern and once we get out of the SW Flow pattern of the LRC, the desert SW ridge will take over and create a dominant NW Flow, in essence, a continuation of the "Ring of Fire" once we flip the calendar into July.  My call is for seasonal temps and a wet period during the festive holiday week across the northern half of our Sub.  I think it's going to be a nail biting forecast this year for Fireworks displays around this region.

[Tom]

The central Rockies had a big snow season this past year, esp in CO, where the ski resorts raked in the $$$...impressive snow stats across the state still at this time in June.  Is another big season brewing up next year???  I think so.

 

https://snowbrains.com/gunnison-basin-snowpack-colorado/

[Niko]

Currently cloudy and temps are in the 60s.

 

More rain by late tomorrow into Thursday w temps only in the lower 60s for highs.

[East Dubzz]

Rare for me, but really hope all the storms hold off today. Got a golf outing this afternoon, and don't want the weather to be a factor at all. 

[james1976]

Rare for me, but really hope all the storms hold off today. Got a golf outing this afternoon, and don't want the weather to be a factor at all.

Already raining over here

[Stormhunter87]

The central Rockies had a big snow season this past year, esp in CO, where the ski resorts raked in the $$$...impressive snow stats across the state still at this time in June. Is another big season brewing up next year??? I think so.

 

https://snowbrains.com/gunnison-basin-snowpack-colorado/

Very impressive. Going out to visit some family around Ft . Collins around labor day I wonder if that pack will hang on. It will make for an awesome picture of the front range.

[Minny_Weather]

Very impressive. Going out to visit some family around Ft . Collins around labor day I wonder if that pack will hang on. It will make for an awesome picture of the front range.

It won't. The article says it's already under a foot.

[Stormhunter87]

It won't. The article says it's already under a foot.

Well that sucks. Maybe an early snow

[jaster220]

It won't. The article says it's already under a foot.

 

Not so sure. The article didn't really specify where/what elevation that 9" depth was at. I've traversed the Rockies in July and there were very deep banks of snow (feet deep) as you drove over the pass(es). Depth is elevation dependent so it's quite possible there's snow-capped peaks throughout most if not all summer on the highest ranges. 

[Niko]

Temps currently in the 70s w a blend of clouds & sunshine.

[Tom]

I've been keeping a watchful eye for the Summer Solstice period where I've been anticipating a big severe wx threat for multiple days.  Today's 12z Euro (along with nearly every other model) has multiple storm clusters traversing the heartland during Fri-Sun.  Nowt that the models are starting to see the fuel and spark, I would imagine SPS begin to increase the potential in the days ahead.  This may end up being one of the more active outbreaks for our region.

[Tom]

Wow, that -NAO trend is for real on the Euro...does low Solar have something to do with it???  If that's true, I highly doubt the GL's warm spell late month will come to fruition.  Those outlets and warmingsta's are gonna bust.

 

12z EPS Day 10 surface pressure pattern has an Arctic connection...that's a cold HP, now a warm one...esp with an ongoing -EPO.

 

[Minny_Weather]

We have cracked 90 once this season, when it hit 91°F on June 5. By this time last Summer, we had gone over 90°F 18 times already. No 90s for the foreseeable future. We may cut it close next week but that's far from a certainty.

[james1976]

Picked up 0.60" this morning otherwise another cloudy cool day. Local met with low-mid 80s this weekend (normal) and muggy and already talking potential severe weather.