July 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Niko]

See the tropical thread.

 

This is going to be a water maker.  Louisiana will be flooded. After the Mississippi delivered all that rain to the Gulf recently, this will not be welcomed. 

NOLA and westerm Miss. will be hurt as the rain will not stop as it  moves NNE.

Just a dreadful year for the Mississippi Valley.

All of this moisture (remnants of what will be left of this system)has eyes for the Gl's Region down the road

[Andie]

The levy will overflow.  It is 1/2"  from the 17' maximum right now.  They are strong but just so high.

The record is 21' with Katrina.

[Stormy]

A hurricane might be brewing in the GOM by tomorrow. Heads up on that y'all.

I had a tiny ray of hope yesterday that it MIGHT bring us some rainfall here next week, but it’s looking less likely today. Also appears less likely than it had for any t. storm chances this wk.end in my neck of the woods with chances remaining over northern Iowa.

[snowstorm83]

Looking at the forecast for the weekend into next week, it looks like summer is about to overstay its welcome 

[Minny_Weather]

My first week in Toledo next week looks to be a brutal one. Thankfully forecasted highs have been lowered, but still a lateral move from here to there.

[Tom]

I'm up early today working European hours on some business I have going on across the "pond".  I had the windows open all night and the house is nice and cool.  Needless to say, it's a very refreshing air mass...Current Obs: 61F/55F...going to enjoy this day as much as possible bc the heat and humidity are here to stay through next week!

[Tom]

Holy smokes, last nights 00z Euro brings the "Summer Sizzle" into the majority of the heartland with a string of days with widespread 95-100F+ temps!  Some places in NE/KS/MO may reach several days in the 100-105F+...Yikes!  That's not going to be good for the farmers.  From floods in the Spring, late planting, now a potential long duration heat wave with lack of any precip for days???  Wow.  We've just had about every single outcome you could possibly ask mother nature to throw.

[CentralNebWeather]

I thought this might be close. NWS Hastings says my area has had the wettest year ever through July 12th.

 

https://twitter.com/ntvstimreith/status/1149642066768433152?s=21

[Hawkeye]

So much for the expected cool, wet summer.  We have a shot at the longest stretch of 90+ in 25 years.

[BrianJK]

So much for the expected cool, wet summer. We have a shot at the longest stretch of 90+ in 25 years.

Predicting weather is kind of similar to sports handicapping. You can use all the available stats, data, and prior experience to make the most logical decision, but in the end there are no “locks” or absolute certainties. You just do your best and try to come out ahead in the long run.

[East Dubzz]

When it was super cool earlier this summer / later spring, I had this bad feeling it would get really warm once summer "showed up." It appears my biggest fears are being realized. 

[Bryan1117]

So much for the expected cool, wet summer. We have a shot at the longest stretch of 90+ in 25 years.

Next week looks brutal, 100’s potentially in the forecast for Eastern Nebraska from Thursday through next weekend. Our AC’s are going to be putting in some OT next week.

[westMJim]

Had a nice clear and cool night last night. The low here at my house was 54 while the official low at the airport was 57. So far this July the mean temperature is 76.2 and that is a departure of +3.8 the warmest so far is 91 and the coolest so far is 57. So far there has not been a day when the high did not reach at least 80. With that mean of 76.2 Grand Rapids at this time is on track for a top ten warmest July’s on record we will see how the next 20 days of this month play out.

[Andie]

I know this is out of left field, but as Tom has been discussing the Pacific Ocean a good deal recently, I thought this might lend some insight as to how things are being affected there. The Pacific and the nation are both dealing with some unusual circumstances.

 

 

https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2019/07/11/maui-brush-fire-closes-down-kuihelani-highway-humane-society-evacuates/

[Stormy]

Predicting weather is kind of similar to sports handicapping. You can use all the available stats, data, and prior experience to make the most logical decision, but in the end there are no “locks” or absolute certainties. You just do your best and try to come out ahead in the long run.

Amen....Agree 100%.

[Stormy]

[Stormy]

A nice cluster of storms now in nw. Iowa moved all the way from ne. Co. last evening and may be what areas of eastern Iowa along and n. of Hwy. 30, or n. of I-80 see later today? Wish it would be moving ese.

[Andie]

Texas and Oklahoma are looking at a string of mid and high nineties.

We're in the summer stretch. Hot, humid

Unless a tropical depression comes at us, or a cold front, we'll be where we are for a while.

 

 

Zzzzz.

[St Paul Storm]

Excessive heat watch for the MSP 7 county metro for Sunday and Monday. Max HI up to 105. Bad time for the lake to be closed due to high levels of E. coli.

[CentralNebWeather]

My wife and kids went with some friends to the Omaha Zoo on Friday. She said you could sure see that eastern Nebraska was getting dry. Then you come back to the flooded in parts and ultra lush Central Nebraska. I think we are going to be glad we have had a lot of rain, where there wasn’t damage, as it looks like Mother Nature is turning off the faucet.

[jaster220]

So much for the expected cool, wet summer.  We have a shot at the longest stretch of 90+ in 25 years.

 

Never discount the Tropical stuff. When it decides to flex it's muscle any thoughts of cold will be on hold. At least a tad bit drier air mass came in this evening making my dusk bicycle ride around town reasonably comfortable. Been a while since I did one of those   

[jaster220]

All of this moisture (remnants of what will be left of this system)has eyes for the Gl's Region down the road

 

My confidence is not high on that. Like last year's system (before Michael) that was supposed to smack the Mitt, then stayed south. The ones that make it here traditionally are late Sept thru October when there's already some autumnal CF's coming down from Canada to interact with. I've already mentally prepared for a "mini-drought" like we've had during May and/or June the past couple of years. This one just waited another 4-6 wks. Those with pools, boats, and lake-front cottages will be thrilled. Others of us nasso much, lol

[Stormhunter87]

My wife and kids went with some friends to the Omaha Zoo on Friday. She said you could sure see that eastern Nebraska was getting dry. Then you come back to the flooded in parts and ultra lush Central Nebraska. I think we are going to be glad we have had a lot of rain, where there wasn’t damage, as it looks like Mother Nature is turning off the faucet.

Definitely browning up here. It has been warm and very humid but not on the crazy side.

[Tom]

I started this topic for those who have interest in global stochastic events that are currently transpiring and will likely continue to grow in numbers as I believe we have entered a long period of activity.

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/2070-rise-in-stochastic-events/

[Tom]

IMO, the GEFS are leading the way and trending towards a much more comfortable pattern starting late this week into the last full week of July.  Before then, we will certainly Fry across the heartland and remain quite Dry.

 

 

 

[Bryan1117]

IMO, the GEFS are leading the way and trending towards a much more comfortable pattern starting late this week into the last full week of July. Before then, we will certainly Fry across the heartland and remain quite Dry.

 

 

 

I sure hope so Tom, our 7 day forecast is showing mid to upper 90’s with basically no rain chances from here on out. I don’t usually mind some hot summer weather, but long stretches of hot, humid, and bone dry weather are not fun.

[Niko]

My confidence is not high on that. Like last year's system (before Michael) that was supposed to smack the Mitt, then stayed south. The ones that make it here traditionally are late Sept thru October when there's already some autumnal CF's coming down from Canada to interact with. I've already mentally prepared for a "mini-drought" like we've had during May and/or June the past couple of years. This one just waited another 4-6 wks. Those with pools, boats, and lake-front cottages will be thrilled. Others of us nasso much, lol

Now, it looks like instead of getting some really hvy downpours and some wind, just a few t'stms are forecasted presently, locally severe for Wednesday and that should be about it. Although, Barry will indeed bring in some really humid air into our region, which could produce some severe weather. Dews could approach 80 by midweek. UGH!

[Niko]

I had a tiny ray of hope yesterday that it MIGHT bring us some rainfall here next week, but it’s looking less likely today. Also appears less likely than it had for any t. storm chances this wk.end in my neck of the woods with chances remaining over northern Iowa.

Same here as well. Air will get very humid though by midweek, thanks to Barry!

[Niko]

Absolutely gorgeous day outside today folks w current readings in the 70s, dew is in the 50s, RH is at 52% and not a cloud to be found. Deep blue skies!!! Just splendid for this time of the year, considering, we are almost in the heart of Summa. Too bad, a heatwave is coming. Next week will be brutal. Barry will interfere as well, not so much w rainfall, but bringing very uncomfortable air into the region.

[Tom]

I sure hope so Tom, our 7 day forecast is showing mid to upper 90’s with basically no rain chances from here on out. I don’t usually mind some hot summer weather, but long stretches of hot, humid, and bone dry weather are not fun.

The plains might take a bit longer to get out of this stagnant pattern as the anticyclone retrogrades West very slowly. You look to be riding the periphery early on later next week (Day 7-8) before the trough penetrates farther south.

[westMJim]

Today is the 20th day in a row of temperatures of 80 or better and here in Grand Rapids we have only had 3 thunderstorms since May 25th, There were 4 in May and 3 in April and that is is for the year so far. We did not have very many last year either here in GR we are in a thunderstorm drought for sure.

[East Dubzz]

Not getting too much rain at my house, but my parents house (about 4 miles to the SE) has gotten 1.09” in like 20 minutes. Heavy rain just parked over that area.

[East Dubzz]

And now it’s pouring here too..

[james1976]

Noticed radar was looking decent over by your area E.D. Should be coming down good with all the moisture in the air.

[East Dubzz]

Picked up 0.59” of rain here. My parents rain gauge picked up 3.17”, and I don’t doubt that at all.

[Andie]

Interesting day with lots of dark cloud cover cycling over us from Barry. It did that for much of the day till around 5:30.

 

Tropical storms are curious things at a distance.

[Stormhunter87]

Interesting day with lots of dark cloud cover cycling over us from Barry. It did that for much of the day till around 5:30.

 

Tropical storms are curious things at a distance.

Be through one hurricane when we lived in DC, Floyd. Definitely interesting to watch.

[Tom]

Wow, impressive and rare July snow in the motherland of Poland...some believe this may have been contributed to the volcanic ash from the volcano in eastern Russia that spewed heavy/dense ash 55,000ft high in the atmosphere a number of weeks ago which has infiltrated the high latitudes and cooled temps up north.

 

 

 

https://www.eska.pl/news/na-kasprowym-wierchu-snieg-a-w-zabarze-rekord-zimna-tego-nikt-sie-nie-spodziewal-aa-CKLg-f1ty-sks3.html

[Tom]

My instincts may have been on the right track, whereby the GEFS were leading the way on a frontal system hitting later this weekend across the northern half of the Sub and transitioning out of this warm spell quicker than the EURO/EPS were suggesting.  I'm seeing a Severe Wx set up and its favoring the MW/Upper MW region later this weekend as a rather unusually strong Summer system tracks out of the Rockies into region over the weekend.

 

 

Both the ICON/GFS are showing this set up and it raises my eye brows and something to monitor over the coming days.  You'd think that nature will showcase some atmospheric fireworks as a natural "fight" between blazing heat to the south and a triggering CF swings in from the north.  

 

 

[Iowawx]

My instincts may have been on the right track, whereby the GEFS were leading the way on a frontal system hitting later this weekend across the northern half of the Sub and transitioning out of this warm spell quicker than the EURO/EPS were suggesting.  I'm seeing a Severe Wx set up and its favoring the MW/Upper MW region later this weekend as a rather unusually strong Summer system tracks out of the Rockies into region over the weekend.

 

 

Both the ICON/GFS are showing this set up and it raises my eye brows and something to monitor over the coming days.  You'd think that nature will showcase some atmospheric fireworks as a natural "fight" between blazing heat to the south and a triggering trough swings in from the north.  

 

 

Tom, when can we expect a relief from the heat/dry weather in Iowa? I don't mind the heat so much, but things are really starting to get dry around here.