July 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Jesse]

Seems doubtful this will end up a cool summer.

Will soon be approaching a decade since our last.

[Omegaraptor]

How often do 597dm and 600dm show up on the 500mb heights in the United States? I looked at the 18z GFS and apparently hour 240 is showing 597dm in Nevada and Utah. Obviously considering how far out it is, it doesn't really mean anything, but just a curiosity.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Last year was relatively cool in California until 4th of July and then it became a blowtorch. Maybe that's a little further delayed for this year.

[ShawniganLake]

Will soon be approaching a decade since our last.

Yep. Considering June’s warm anomaly just seems likely this year ends up average or above.

[Deweydog]

How often do 597dm and 600dm show up on the 500mb heights in the United States? I looked at the 18z GFS and apparently hour 240 is showing 597dm in Nevada and Utah. Obviously considering how far out it is, it doesn't really mean anything, but just a curiosity.

600+ doesn’t verify often.

[TT-SEA]

Gorgeous evening on Lake Sammamish...

 

[Tenochtitlan]

It's 89 degrees in Anchorage. That beats their all-time record by four degrees. 

 

Climate change isn't real though

[Front Ranger]

It's 89 degrees in Anchorage. That beats their all-time record by four degrees.

 

Climate change isn't real though

I have a couple friends that are up there right now. About to embark on a week long drive in a camper, with no service... I'm a little nervous for them, given the fire danger.

[Omegaraptor]

00z GFS looks 1983-like. Summer is delayed even farther.

[Phil]

It's 89 degrees in Anchorage. That beats their all-time record by four degrees.

 

Climate change isn't real though

That’s called weather.

[BLI snowman]

00z GFS looks 1983-like. Summer is delayed even farther.

 

Cool.

 

It arcticed in December that year.

[Anti Marine Layer]

89 F in Anchorage but only 69 F in Fairbanks. Should be the other way around.

 

That's like having San Francisco reach 110 while Redding is only 75.

 

You do know, however, that both Alaska and Hawaii both have all time record highs of 100 F.

[Anti Marine Layer]

00z GFS looks 1983-like. Summer is delayed even farther.

Summer was very hot in 1983 in So Cal. Not sure about the PNW.

[ShawniganLake]

Summer was very hot in 1983 in So Cal. Not sure about the PNW.

Not hot up here.

[Omegaraptor]

GEM, GEPS, and GEFS all disagree with the operational GFS. Let’s see what the Euro says.

 

The good ol’ late night waiting game. I’m almost never up for the EPS, but I do try to catch the ECMWF most nights.

[Phil]

GEM, GEPS, and GEFS all disagree with the operational GFS. Let’s see what the Euro says.

 

The good ol’ late night waiting game. I’m almost never up for the EPS, but I do try to catch the ECMWF most nights.

They don’t disagree all that much. There are a decent number of ensemble members that look like the GFS operational, in fact. Be careful when comparing long range ensemble means to a single OP run.

[Jesse]

Cool.

 

It arcticed in December that year.

Inanely at that.

[Jesse]

00z GFS looks 1983-like. Summer is delayed even farther.

All this bellyaching will look funny when July ends up slightly above average.

[Omegaraptor]

Inanely at that.

As much as I may dislike backloaded winters, I wouldn’t have minded February had we actually gotten snow. Unfortunately, nature isn’t exactly nice to the western Portland metro.

[Timmy Supercell]

I doubt a 1983 is coming, that's the absolute extreme example of a cool summer. 

 

Even if the June-July-August (90 day average) ends between 0 to -1 degree of normal that would still entail a handful of 90's and probably 1 moderate heatwave sometime this year. So let's not go crazy, there's a 1 in 100 chance 1983 is happening.

[ShawniganLake]

[Omegaraptor]

I doubt a 1983 is coming, that's the absolute extreme example of a cool summer. 

 

Even if the June-July-August (90 day average) ends between 0 to -1 degree of normal that would still entail a handful of 90's and probably 1 moderate heatwave sometime this year. So let's not go crazy, there's a 1 in 100 chance 1983 is happening.

I was just referencing how chilly the operational GFS looked relative to average. Several days under 70°F here.

 

This summer definitely won’t be 1983 or 1993 lol. Both of those years were contaminated by volcanoes, too.

[Requiem]

I was just referencing how chilly the operational GFS looked relative to average. Several days under 70°F here.

 

This summer definitely won’t be 1983 or 1993 lol. Both of those years were contaminated by volcanoes, too.

Dominated by volcanoes....

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Got to enjoy the fireworks from home. Nice to see the display standing just outside. Made sure to binge Stranger Things since I will inevitably be spoiled as much as I use Twitter.

 

 

Looks like we are at 59F in downtown Springfield.

[TT-SEA]

Smoke over the marine layer down south.  

 

 

 

Probably going to be very little sun up here until Monday afternoon at the earliest.    Need to head east... that just sucks for July.

[Front Ranger]

Smoke over the marine layer down south.

 

 

 

Probably going to be very little sun up here until Monday afternoon at the earliest. Need to head east... that just sucks for July.

You had an unusually sunny spring. Can't win 'em all.

[TT-SEA]

You had an unusually sunny spring. Can't win 'em all.

I would much rather have rain and sun breaks like last week over all day marine layer.

[GHweatherChris]

I would much rather have rain and sun breaks like last week over all day marine layer.

We know, no need to repeat.

[TT-SEA]

In addition to the marine layer... there is a thick layer of haze and the smell of fireworks here probably due to very little mixing which is trapping it all in the valley.   Pretty gross morning out there.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like some rain up in Bellingham already...

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Frontal Snowsquall]

In addition to the mariner layer... there is a thick layer of haze and the smell of fireworks here probably due to very little mixing which is trapping it all in the valley. Pretty gross morning out there.

PDX at one point last night was reporting smoke from all the fireworks.

[TT-SEA]

Acrid and gross out there...

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[GHweatherChris]

Acrid and gross out there...

 

At least you have your health and family...

[Front Ranger]

Timdependence Day!

[TT-SEA]

At least you have your health and family...

Yes... this is true.

[TacomaWaWx]

Currently 59 after a low of 56. Was an amazing show here up the hill from Ruston as always last night. Was great weather too mostly sunny skies and 71 degrees in Tacoma for the high yesterday. Had a fighter jet air show right on the water yesterday as well had a Harrier fighter jet hovering right over the freedom fair was pretty cool. They were flying a few different planes right over my house for several hours yesterday.

[ShawniganLake]

No firework smoke here. A few sunbreaks and 62F

[Jesse]

Cool and cloudy this morning, feels very refreshing. Currently 59 after a low of 57.