Clinton Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 3km Nam 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 front end south defo north! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 Looks like some pretty strong winds on 3k NAM also in that run. Encouraging to see models trend stronger with the low as we get closer 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 How in the world did Chicago manage to pull this one in?! Haha. Hopefully we all get in on a little action! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 3km NamWhoa nelly! 1 Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 let's see what that silly gfs has to say now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 How in the world did Chicago manage to pull this one in?! Haha. Hopefully we all get in on a little action! Lmao ikr. Not trying to be one of those "Chicago bad" people, but that place is a storm magnet for sure! 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 Wow. Imagine flights cancelled at O’Hare and Midway because of a freak October snowstorm. Wild stuff. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 Last 3 runs of the Euro thru 7 am Friday. Can see how it's been steadily increasing snow across SWMI. Never thought I was in the game tbh-go figure 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 Icon and NAM look nearly identical through hr 30 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 3K NAM is just a beauty. Low is stronger/west and beautiful defo band of snow that sits in E IA/WI for hours yeah, SWI really gets the pivot bullseye. 986mb in N. Lk Huron Thursday after dark. Sweet 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 Last 3 runs of the Euro thru 7 am Friday. Can see how it's been steadily increasing snow across SWMI. Never thought I was in the game tbh-go figure 20191028 12z Euro h96.PNG20191029 0z Euro h84.PNG20191029 12z Euro h72.PNGWow....looking good bud. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 yeah, SWI really gets the pivot bullseye. 986mb in N. Lk Huron Thursday after dark. Sweet Keeps getting lower with every run, lol. NAM = #funtimes 5 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 Nebraskan in Chicago. Maybe you're gonna get lucky after all.. Area Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL909 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2019.UPDATE...909 PM CDTTricky forecast overnight into early Wednesday morning as lowamplitude shortwave trough over the southern Plains this eveningraces northeast toward the lower Great Lakes by midday Wednesday.Some backing and strengthening of the low/mid level flow inadvance of this shortwave aided by the thermally indirectcirculation in the right entrance region of the strong upper leveljet will result in a strengthening frontogenetic circulation.Forecast thermal profiles look to be precariously close to therain/snow line, which naturally lends itself to some uncertaintieswith respect to p-type and any potential snow accumulations.However, cross sections through the f-gen circulation show strongomega co-located with negative saturated EPV, an indication ofweak stability/potential instability. This, combined with thestrong omega, could result in some heavy banded precip. Theheavier precip rates would tend to push thermal profiles moretoward all wet snow due to dynamic cooling. In addition, forecastsoundings look exceptionally favorable for large aggregatesnowflakes, which could result in greatly reduced visibilities(wouldn`t be surprised to see some 1/2SM to 1/4SM) in the heaviersnow.Models generally agree that 2m wet bulb temps will remain near orjust above freezing, which given warm pavement temps will resultin melting and snow-to-liquid ratios. However, even with the warmground and marginal 2m temps, snow falling at moderate to heavyclip will accumulate, likely even on roadways. Latest guidancethat has come in this evening would generally tend to support thegoing forecast, which has an axis of heaviest accumulating snowfrom LaSalle County northeast toward the western and southernChicago suburbs. I do have concerns that the fairly lightsurface winds could mean less lake warming in Chicago and theimmediate metro area and could allow for more snow falling eveninto the city limits. Going to update grids and forecast to hitsnow a bit harder in the city and burbs with a bit moreaccumulation, but certainly possible that snow could be a biggerproblem into the metro area than this. Strongly consideredexpanding the winter wx advisory northeast into the metro area,but still not confident in the switch over to snow in the city andeven less confident in impactful accumulations.Any snow should switch over to light rain and drizzle by latemorning we lose ice nuclei in the clouds and column warms solidlyabove freezing.- Izzi 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 Impressive positive tilted upper level PV anomaly is forecasted todig into the Four Corners tonight before phasing favorably withseasonally strong southern stream jet axis. Increased momentumejecting through the subgeostrophic trough base will then helpfavorable jet dyanmics aloft in causing rapid negative tilt to PVanomaly and spin-up cyclogenesis from the Ohio River Valley into thecentral Great Lakes. The big development with this Halloween stormsystem is that the ECMWF is back with a 991 mb surface cyclone overGeorgian Bay 00Z Friday. Very strong direct PV advection willincrease in warm advection will lead to categorical rain during thedaylight Thursday. Looking at short duration window of relativelydrier conditions centered around the 21-00Z timeframe as a midleveldry slot could lift directly into the state. Conditions will remainwet and damp, but a reprieve in falling precipitation may happen.Inherent uncertainties exist with the details because of latent heatanomalies and their impact on forcing timing/magnitude andthermodynamic profiles. Given amount of warm advection and the trackof the cyclone, support an all rain solution during the daylighthours with a total changeover to snow all areas after sun down. Acouple of items that need to be ironed out...1. Presence andlongevity of cold conveyor deformation axis Thursday night. Currenttrajectory of latest ECMWF/NAM suggests a flatter system overall andless likelihood for dry slot to clear out all of the area. A moredeveloped deformation could bring multiple inches of snow toforecast area north of I 69, particularly the Thumb. 2. The otheritem that needs to be watched closely is what sort of high windpotential exists for the cwa. Current trajectory of the storm andwind direction forecasts suggests a high impact wind event couldoccur for those areas downwind of Saginaw Bay in Tuscola and Huroncounties. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 Even OHweather is chiming in for the Chi-town situation (he's a Met, working in NJ currently) I'm at work and have had a fun few hours pulling my hair out over this...I like 2-4" all the way into the W and S suburbs including LOT and JOT (maybe MDW or just west) and even ORD if the precip gets far enough north. I have no idea what the immediate Chicago area will do, gut says white rain but Izzi's point about the weak onshore flow initially is good and banded snow can trump the UHI if you aren't blowing wind off of a 50 degree lake so that could be fun. The flow does turn more onshore quickly so they may start as a sleety mix, go to mostly snow for a time, then go back to mostly rain before it gets too out of hand in Chicago. There's definitely enough slantwise instability for banded moderate to heavy snow probably enough fgen to focus it (omega on the NAM is decent but have definitely seen better). Ratios will suck but 2-4" should be attainable into the W and S Chicago suburbs (I have no clue where the N cutoff is but someone near or just N of DPA/ORD will be disappointed. This should impact the commute where it's mostly or all snow (also if there's any sleet mixing in that would help with road stickage) as a moderate to heavy wet snow will put a thick layer of slush on roads. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 Clinton- did ya get any snow outta this system? Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 Clinton- did ya get any snow outta this system?Not yet, currently have a mix of rain, sleet, and snow. Expect accumulations to start tomorrow afternoon. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 lovin this stuff amigo! Impressive positive tilted upper level PV anomaly is forecasted todig into the Four Corners tonight before phasing favorably withseasonally strong southern stream jet axis. Increased momentumejecting through the subgeostrophic trough base will then helpfavorable jet dyanmics aloft in causing rapid negative tilt to PVanomaly and spin-up cyclogenesis from the Ohio River Valley into thecentral Great Lakes. The big development with this Halloween stormsystem is that the ECMWF is back with a 991 mb surface cyclone overGeorgian Bay 00Z Friday. Very strong direct PV advection willincrease in warm advection will lead to categorical rain during thedaylight Thursday. Looking at short duration window of relativelydrier conditions centered around the 21-00Z timeframe as a midleveldry slot could lift directly into the state. Conditions will remainwet and damp, but a reprieve in falling precipitation may happen.Inherent uncertainties exist with the details because of latent heatanomalies and their impact on forcing timing/magnitude andthermodynamic profiles. Given amount of warm advection and the trackof the cyclone, support an all rain solution during the daylighthours with a total changeover to snow all areas after sun down. Acouple of items that need to be ironed out...1. Presence andlongevity of cold conveyor deformation axis Thursday night. Currenttrajectory of latest ECMWF/NAM suggests a flatter system overall andless likelihood for dry slot to clear out all of the area. A moredeveloped deformation could bring multiple inches of snow toforecast area north of I 69, particularly the Thumb. 2. The otheritem that needs to be watched closely is what sort of high windpotential exists for the cwa. Current trajectory of the storm andwind direction forecasts suggests a high impact wind event couldoccur for those areas downwind of Saginaw Bay in Tuscola and Huroncounties. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 Not yet, currently have a mix of rain, sleet, and snow. Expect accumulations to start tomorrow afternoon.Good luck to ya amigo.... Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 lovin this stuff amigo!Looks interesting, I'll tell ya that bud! 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 Good luck to ya amigo.... Thanks, I'll be on the southern edge hoping to get 2 or 3 inches Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 Thanks, I'll be on the southern edge hoping to get 2 or 3 inchesI can see your area receiving a couple of inches of snow. (1-3" in the game) Kinda gets you in the holiday spirit 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 I can your area receiving a couple of inches of snow. (1-3" in the game) Kinda gets you in the holiday spirit Looks like the GFS wants to get things going tonight, I guess we shall see. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 Impressive positive tilted upper level PV anomaly is forecasted todig into the Four Corners tonight before phasing favorably withseasonally strong southern stream jet axis. Increased momentumejecting through the subgeostrophic trough base will then helpfavorable jet dyanmics aloft in causing rapid negative tilt to PVanomaly and spin-up cyclogenesis from the Ohio River Valley into thecentral Great Lakes. The big development with this Halloween stormsystem is that the ECMWF is back with a 991 mb surface cyclone overGeorgian Bay 00Z Friday. Very strong direct PV advection willincrease in warm advection will lead to categorical rain during thedaylight Thursday. Looking at short duration window of relativelydrier conditions centered around the 21-00Z timeframe as a midleveldry slot could lift directly into the state. Conditions will remainwet and damp, but a reprieve in falling precipitation may happen.Inherent uncertainties exist with the details because of latent heatanomalies and their impact on forcing timing/magnitude andthermodynamic profiles. Given amount of warm advection and the trackof the cyclone, support an all rain solution during the daylighthours with a total changeover to snow all areas after sun down. Acouple of items that need to be ironed out...1. Presence andlongevity of cold conveyor deformation axis Thursday night. Currenttrajectory of latest ECMWF/NAM suggests a flatter system overall andless likelihood for dry slot to clear out all of the area. A moredeveloped deformation could bring multiple inches of snow toforecast area north of I 69, particularly the Thumb. 2. The otheritem that needs to be watched closely is what sort of high windpotential exists for the cwa. Current trajectory of the storm andwind direction forecasts suggests a high impact wind event couldoccur for those areas downwind of Saginaw Bay in Tuscola and Huroncounties. If these storms keep taking this track and amping up the way they have been, just a matter of time til we see this.. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 hey there gfs...no cavin yet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 GFS with about 5” IMBY. I’ll take that for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 Looks like the GFS wants to get things going tonight, I guess we shall see.Exactly and at least its on the right track.... 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 If these storms keep taking this track and amping up the way they have been, just a matter of time til we see this.. Bliz of 78-Toledo.jpegDang! Reminds me of the EC blizzards 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 Dam I know 10:1 is a hard sell in October but my family in central Illinois is in the jack zone based on Nam and gfs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 00z Euro has Cedar Rapids down to only 0.10" precip. Other models are a bit more. Regardless of the exact amount, this system could have been so much more for Iowa. The pieces of energy just aren't going to interact quite as well as necessary. Oh well. I suppose I'd rather save the biggies for winter. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 Parts of Chicago area now under WWA. ORD and MDW now reporting snow or a mix. Tom steals the show once again!!! HA! 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 30, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 Parts of Chicago area now under WWA. ORD and MDW now reporting snow or a mix. Tom steals the show once again!!! HA!TBH, I'll take whatever snow falls as a win-win in any situation for late October. I also like setting records which by all accounts will happen tomorrow for Halloween which is pretty neat. I'd much rather prefer seeing big snows as we head deeper into November so it can stick around for longer periods. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 Just when I thought this system couldn't peter out anymore ; both RAP and HRRR really drying it out- hopefully not a trend. T/D depressions are not favorable and I think much of the radar echoes in E.Ne and W.IA is virga. By the time saturation occurs much of the forcing will have moved E. Oh well... Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 30, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 Snow is starting to accumulate as I have my first coating of the season. Nice big flakes falling and some heavier radar returns trying to budge north. Extremely sharp cutoff right over my county. Coldest temp of the season (32F)...#letitsnow 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 Based on what is happening here right now it looks like the GFS is handling this system the best. I am currently 34 with a mixed bag of precip which is what it is calling for. The GFS puts down accum snow here this evening which seems reasonable the Euro says I should have a inch on the ground already in which I don't. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 30, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 I can't help but think about how this system will look like in future cycles and could end up being a true Arklatex bomb if the pattern sets up just right. It's nice to see the models show a significant intensification of the SLP as it tracks up the OHV where the LRC's Long Term Long Wave Trough is taking shape. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 I can't help but think about how this system will look like in future cycles and could end up being a true Arklatex bomb if the pattern sets up just right. It's nice to see the models show a significant intensification of the SLP as it tracks up the OHV where the LRC's Long Term Long Wave Trough is taking shape.It could happen right around Christmas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 30, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 It could happen right around Christmas. It's hard to say right now how long the LRC is going to be this year. Gary Lezak said some years the cycle has been up to 60 days long and as short as 40 days I believe it was. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 hows it looking up this way? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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