November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Farmboy]

Nov 20th is getting pretty close now. Not looking good for that one.

Winter cancel.

[Omegaraptor]

Enjoy this mild, zonal reprieve while it lasts..because it might be the last one until late January.

Mr. -EPO is almost certainly coming back, either later this month or in December.

but but but Rod Hill said there would be 6 weeks of rain coming up!!!

[Jesse]

11/20

[TT-SEA]

The EPS is showing less of a warm signal in the 10-15 day period now... but not much of a cold signal either.       Time is moving forward... the 10-15 day period just about takes us to December now.

 

 

 

 

Still drier than normal though over the next 15 days:

 

[Jesse]

Low of 42 here this morning. Should be heading for the mid-50s again today.

[MossMan]

Ditch that wimpy Stihl, dude.

 

Echo 8010 or Redmax 8500 are the big kahunas.

Those are not for my back. Also I stick to brands that never let me down...Stihl for power equipment, John Deere everything, GM trucks, and Talenti for Gelato.

[Gradient Keeper]

Gusty to strong east winds all night. This is about the strongest east wind I can remember with PDX/TTD-DLS at only -6mb.

 

Peak gusts: Corbett 64 mph, Crown Point 74 mph(twice)

 

I really hope we see some kind of miracle pattern change on the 12z runs today and good model continuity/agreement. C'MON!!!!

 

12z ECMWF in 1 hour 49 minutes

[Jesse]

Our GOA ridge has definitely been replaced for the time being.

 

https://a.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?sat_500+9

[MossMan]

11/20

2022

[Jesse]

2022

Ice age should be well underway at that point.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Doesn’t look especially cold for him but those precious rates would be some power outages with the wetness of it. Good thing it’s out over 300 hours.

Yeah, heavy snowfall rates.

[ShawniganLake]

Long range is going for a

[High Desert Mat?]

12z just gave me a migraine. Those dam 2nd year ninos. They’re a bit&h.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

November 2008 feel to this.

[kokaneekidz]

November 2008 feel to this.

 

 

I sure hope you are right. I love xmas shopping in 12 degree weather.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Jesse]

Long range is going for a s**t

So cold and rainy? Nice!

[MossMan]

https://komonews.com/weather/scotts-weather-blog/the-ultimate-gray-area-seattle-named-gloomiest-place-in-america-during-winter

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

The PDO dropped down to -0.45 in October, way down from 0.41 in September. BTW Nate Mantua is not at the UW, the PDO page that he used to update there no longer updates. He is at swfsc.noaa.gov. and that is where you can find the latest pdo updates

[MossMan]

I did quickly hand rake the walkway leaves this morning, they were trying to choke out my moss. Had to be careful not to damage my moss with the rake however.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

[ShawniganLake]

So cold and rainy? Nice!

You wish.

 

Ensemble looks about the same as previous

[Jesse]

You wish.

Ensemble looks about the same as previous

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Gusty to strong east winds all night. This is about the strongest east wind I can remember with PDX/TTD-DLS at only -6mb.

 

Peak gusts: Corbett 64 mph, Crown Point 74 mph(twice)

 

I really hope we see some kind of miracle pattern change on the 12z runs today and good model continuity/agreement. C'MON!!!!

 

12z ECMWF in 1 hour 49 minutes

Was suprisingly very windy on my way back home from work yesterday. Always love a good east wind event.

[ShawniganLake]

F440AF06-79F6-4B60-97BA-2BDEF8F06819.png

Weird how the operational doesn’t show up on that old site.

[Jesse]

Weird how the operational doesn’t show up on that old site.

Yeah I’m kind of blown away by it. Feel like it’s time to move on to the new site but I just don’t want to leaf.

[ShawniganLake]

Yeah I’m kind of blown away by it. Feel like it’s time to move on to the new site but I just don’t want to leaf.

Cute. It’s time to cut the cord. Embrace change. Unless that change is banning leaf blowers. Or anything else that might cause a disturbance to your neighbors.

Lawn mowers, chain saws, weed eaters, hot tubs, heat pumps, dogs, cats, marijuana smoke, cigarette smoke, wood stoves, music, Harley motorbikes.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Let's take a look back. Last week some models/runs and even ensembles were suggesting a *possible* pattern change around November 9th. The EPS said NOPE! Fast forward to a few days ago and the possible pattern change was pushed back to the 16th. Other than 1 or 2 times the EURO/EPS said NOPE! Now we're at November 14th and yet again the GFS/GEF/GEM/CMCE are showing some wet weather with a pattern change around November 23rd-24th pushed back again. EURO/EPS says NOPE!

 

It's the models' way of saying Real Soon Now.

 

http://www.jargon.net/jargonfile/r/RealSoonNow.html

[Jesse]

[Gradient Keeper]

Our GOA ridge has definitely been replaced for the time being.

 

https://a.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?sat_500+9

That should begin to help cool the blob. C'MON!!!!

 

00z GFS in 8 hours 6 minutes

[Esquimalt]

Euro is...sad

[Jesse]

Anyone have precip totals from the 12z Euro?

[Gradient Keeper]

Anyone have precip totals from the 12z Euro?

7 Day Rainfall Totals

 

 

 

[Kayla]

Definitely a light at the end of tunnel kind of look on the Euro at day 10.

[Jesse]

7 Day Rainfall Totals

 

 

 

Better than a kick in the pants. Whatever on earth that means.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

That should begin to help cool the blob. C'MON!!!!

 

00z GFS in 8 hours 6 minutes

Like I said before, the "blob" is not a bad thing, if it is in the right place.  A negative PDO features a warm blob below Alaska (except just south of the coastline)  The blob of a few winters ago was hugging our coast (positive PDO).  The current PDO is -0.45   

 

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/pdo_warm_cool3.jpg

[Gradient Keeper]

Like I said before, the "blob" is not a bad thing, if it is in the right place.  A negative PDO features a warm blob below Alaska (except just south of the coastline)  The blob of a few winters ago was hugging our coast (positive PDO).  The current PDO is -0.45   

 

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/pdo_warm_cool3.jpg

You're right. It's all about placement/position. Think Cold and SNOW!!!! C'MON!!!!

 

6z NAM in 11 hours 55 minutes

[TigerWoodsLibido]

You're right. It's all about placement/position. Think Cold and SNOW!!!! C'MON!!!!

 

6z NAM in 11 hours 55 minutes

 

Yup. The blob was there in 13-14.

[Deweydog]

Cute. It’s time to cut the cord. Embrace change. Unless that change is banning leaf blowers. Or anything else that might cause a disturbance to your neighbors.

Lawn mowers, chain saws, weed eaters, hot tubs, heat pumps, dogs, cats, marijuana smoke, cigarette smoke, wood stoves, music, Harley motorbikes.

You forgot children.

[Jesse]

Warmer today.