November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

The supposed “relationship” to west coast weather keeps changing, so I’m not even sure what it is anymore. At one point it was blob = warm/dry California/SW US and/or West Coast overall. Obviously that is no longer the argument.

 

There’s little if any physical basis to claim it’s a pattern driver, that’s for sure. The winters of 2018/19, 2017/18, 2016/17, and 2013/14 all delivered with a blob and/or +PDO, while winters 2012/13, 2009/10, 2004/05, etc all failed without a blob and/or +PDO.

If experts can't agree about the blob, I sure as heck don't have an opinion.

 

However, the argument that people like Cliff Mass make is NOT that it drives the pattern.  They argue that the pattern is the same, BUT it warms the systems that come in and increase the humidity, since of course warmer air can hold more water.   And it led to warmer overnight low temps than what would be expected. I do remember that winter the NWS in Spokane was continually forecasting temps that ended up being colder than what actually occured.  After awhile, they begin to say that the warmer waters were making the systems a bit warmer than what models were advertising and what their experience with these weather patterns was telling them.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hard to overstate how disappointing this all is. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

From what I've heard the blob doesn't drive patterns, but it does result in slightly warmer air during onshore flow. 

 

You posted that at the same time I was making the same point, so sorry for duplicating!  

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

12Z ECMWF looks decently wet by days 8-10 with some good mountain snow.   That is exactly the pattern that we need right now.

I would be happy with this, and so would skiers.

 

[TT-SEA]

Tim rooting for rain?

 

Don't give a flying crap about rain... but would like some mountain snow so the ski season starts. That usually means rain for the lowlands.

[TT-SEA]

What are the driest Novembers in the post-1998 era?

 

That might provide a better gauge since the Hadley/Walker/Warm Pool climatology would be more analogous.

 

 

All the other years in that list are from pre-1998.

 

This will be the driest November here since 1976.

[joelgombiner]

 

[TT-SEA]

She's getting to be a beauty.

 

 

 

And the clouds are just eaten away up here by offshore flow... resulting a mostly sunny day.    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Snowing in K-Falls now. Mr. Supercell we need an update!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Deweydog]

Hard to overstate how disappointing this all is.

It’s hard to know how we will carry on with the latest developments and travesties. It’s hard to breathe with the weight of true despair and sorrow piled upon my chest like 50 unused and unneeded flood-control sandbags from a pre-Arctic outbreak atmospheric river. What am I supposed to tell my children when they ask how this could happen in a world which we try to convince them is, despite its flaws and fallible human behavior, is loving and just? I think we ultimately can find strength in each other, holding each other up as we mourn and remind ourselves that the greatest gift on earth is our humanity. It knows no bounds and is truly capable of great things despite atmospheric challenges on the 500mb, 300mb or even 10mb level. We can rise above.

[Phil]

Sick animation of that storm coming in on visible satellite:

 

https://twitter.com/gdimeweather/status/1199393721638408192?s=20

[MossMan]

Not a good start to this season so far. Boring boring weather. Oh well. Hopefully things ramp up around Christmas.

[Phil]

All the other years in that list are from pre-1998.

 

This will be the driest November here since 1976.

I asked what are the driest Novembers since 1998.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Tons of mountain snow on the Euro. 

 

[TT-SEA]

I asked what are the driest Novembers since 1998.

Ahhh... I am away from my computer now. Will check when I get home.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not a good start to this season so far. Boring boring weather. Oh well. Hopefully things ramp up around Christmas.

 

Otherwise just another shitty day in our meaningless lives. 

[TT-SEA]

Otherwise just another shitty day in our meaningless lives.

It's a stunningly beautiful day... sun shining on the snow covered mountains. Perfection for late November!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It's a stunningly beautiful day... sun shining on the snow covered mountains. Perfection for late November!

 

Speak for yourself. 

 

[FroYoBro]

The satellite pictures of the storm are great. Looking sexy right now.

[Perturbed Member]

Meh

 

[Omegaraptor]

Tons of mountain snow on the Euro. 

 

 

Mt Shasta    

[TacomaWaWx]

Up to 41 with the wind coming out of the NE lightly. Beautiful views of the snow capped cascades, should be some beautiful viewing of the cascades and Olympics the next few days. Should also be pretty breezy tonight in some spots. My area gets hit pretty hard by offshore wind so I’m expecting it tonight.

[Omegaraptor]

I'm driving up to Seattle on Thursday. Looks like I'll probably get some clear views of the mountains.

[TacomaWaWx]

Not sure why everyone’s disappointed with the weather, should be pretty interesting at times over the next week. Still a chance a marginal overrunning event occurs which would be pretty cool considering that this never really was a great snow set up, so just seeing any flakes would be cool. Going to be windy at times, cold and overall active weather coming up. Looks fairly active in the mid to long range after this as well.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Not surprisingly, the EPS is similar to the operational at day 10 (when is it ever way different than the operational?)

 

[FroYoBro]

Not sure why everyone’s disappointed with the weather, should be pretty interesting at times over the next week. Still a chance a marginal overrunning event occurs which would be pretty cool considering that this never really was a great snow set up, so just seeing any flakes would be cool. Going to be windy at times, cold and overall active weather coming up. Looks fairly active in the mid to long range after this as well.

It’s mostly just Andrew. He is a huge weenie.

[TT-SEA]

EPS is totally different than previous runs in the 10-15 day period.   Or wait... its exactly the same.    Sorry about that.   

 

Throw it out... its always wrong when its consistent.

 

 

 

 

Side note... it is trending wetter over the next 15 days.   Still drier than normal but closer to normal. 

 

[TacomaWaWx]

It’s mostly just Andrew. He is a huge weenie.

lol. Well this was never the greatest set up for major cold or snow. I think our chances are still pretty good that something will happen in a month or two. I was just happy to see some snow this morning and hopeful we see some more flakes even if it doesn’t stick later this week. Should be fun times with the cold days and dry offshore winds .

[TacomaWaWx]

EPS is totally different than previous runs in the 10-15 day period. Or wait... its exactly the same. Sorry about that.

 

Throw it out... its always wrong when its consistent.

 

 

 

 

Side note... it is trending wetter over the next 15 days. Still drier than normal but closer to normal.

 

How dare you post this map this isn’t what we want to see!

[SnarkyGoblin]

Has there been any historical analysis done on how these long range (2+ weeks) models actually fair, especially with snow and/or cold air?  That would be neat to see the data on 2 week out predictions of sub freezing temps vs. actual.

[Blizzard777]

Another shot of that weather station down 8n Gold Beach!

dropping like a rock

[TT-SEA]

Speak for yourself.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Nice and filthy out there. 40F with rain picking up.  Hopefully some wind soon.

[TacomaWaWx]

Snowy peaks! Little hard to see in the distance should be more clear in a couple days.

[MossMan]

EPS is totally different than previous runs in the 10-15 day period. Or wait... its exactly the same. Sorry about that.

 

Throw it out... its always wrong when its consistent.

 

 

 

 

Side note... it is trending wetter over the next 15 days. Still drier than normal but closer to normal.

 

Wake me up when it shows lots of pretty blue/purple over Washington State.

[MossMan]

Snowy peaks! Little hard to see in the distance should be more clear in a couple days.

Are you on your roof currently?

[TT-SEA]

[TT-SEA]

Wake me up when it shows lots of pretty blue/purple over Washington State.

Will do... enjoy your winter slumber.

[Deweydog]

That looks like snow up there!