November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Gradient Keeper]

I'll be watching that trend at Day 5-6 to strengthen the Aleutian ridge because IF that continues on the EURO(or other models) the next 2-3 days that will have implications Day 7-9 and I believe could result in a brief significant to major blast into Eastern Washington/Columbia Basin.

[Perturbed Member]

Still sometime for the Sunday AM PDX "event" to change but growing confidence at this point that it will be flurries/light snow overnight. 0-Trace accumulation but should be pretty if you're awake to see it. Most locations see absolutely zero. Warming aloft may switch it to light ZR or just rain if the precip manages to last long enough. 

 

Precip is just too limited and this airmass just isn't all that impressively cold. I found the October cold to be much more impressive, especially how sharp that front was. Air is dry enough this time around but too little precip to rely on wetbulbing. 

 

Sucks but we have all winter at least to get the real deal. 

[GHweatherChris]

No Seahawks.

They play on Monday, I am talking about Sunday!!

[GHweatherChris]

Still sometime for the Sunday AM PDX "event" to change but growing confidence at this point that it will be flurries/light snow overnight. 0-Trace accumulation but should be pretty if you're awake to see it. Most locations see absolutely zero. Warming aloft may switch it to light ZR or just rain if the precip manages to last long enough.

 

Precip is just too limited and this airmass just isn't all that impressively cold. I found the October cold to be much more impressive, especially how sharp that front was. Air is dry enough this time around but too little precip to rely on wetbulbing.

 

Sucks but we have all winter at least to get the real deal.

I will stay up with a chance for a flurry!!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks like we are down to 28F

[snow_wizard]

I'll be watching that trend at Day 5-6 to strengthen the Aleutian ridge because IF that continues on the EURO(or other models) the next 2-3 days that will have implications Day 7-9 and I believe could result in a brief significant to major blast into Eastern Washington/Columbia Basin.

 

That period has actually been of interest for a few days now.  Looks highly unusual....it's actually a situation where the atmosphere becomes compartmentalized as opposed to an offshore ridge per se.

[snow_wizard]

Still sometime for the Sunday AM PDX "event" to change but growing confidence at this point that it will be flurries/light snow overnight. 0-Trace accumulation but should be pretty if you're awake to see it. Most locations see absolutely zero. Warming aloft may switch it to light ZR or just rain if the precip manages to last long enough. 

 

Precip is just too limited and this airmass just isn't all that impressively cold. I found the October cold to be much more impressive, especially how sharp that front was. Air is dry enough this time around but too little precip to rely on wetbulbing. 

 

Sucks but we have all winter at least to get the real deal. 

 

The problem this time is the base of the block was simply too far south.  If the whole structure had been pushed north 300 miles it would have been a much different ball game.

[Meatyorologist]

Still sometime for the Sunday AM PDX "event" to change but growing confidence at this point that it will be flurries/light snow overnight. 0-Trace accumulation but should be pretty if you're awake to see it. Most locations see absolutely zero. Warming aloft may switch it to light ZR or just rain if the precip manages to last long enough. 

 

Precip is just too limited and this airmass just isn't all that impressively cold. I found the October cold to be much more impressive, especially how sharp that front was. Air is dry enough this time around but too little precip to rely on wetbulbing. 

 

Sucks but we have all winter at least to get the real deal. 

You think the people in this forum WON'T be staying up until 4am on a Sunday to watch two measly snowflakes plunk onto their back porch and melt instantly while live tweeting?

 

Because I know I'll be doing that.

[GHweatherChris]

You think the people in this forum WON'T be staying up until 4am on a Sunday to watch two measly snowflakes plunk onto their back porch and melt instantly while live tweeting?

 

Because I know I'll be doing that.

Absolutely

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 23 at SLE and EUG. PDX has been as low as 29.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

06z has a lot more moisture with the overrunning "event," but it looks like mostly rain. Good for a couple more inches of snow in Central and E. Oregon though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking at Eugene, they are on pace for 15 sub-freezing lows this month, that will be the most in November there since they had 18 in 2000. 

[MossMan]

06z has a lot more moisture with the overrunning "event," but it looks like mostly rain. Good for a couple more inches of snow in Central and E. Oregon though.

Have a precip type map handy?

[Jbolin]

What do you drive?

A 2018 Charger SRT Hellcat and a 2017 Tacoma 4x4

[TT-SEA]

SEA is at 31 on the hour... first below freezing observation there.

[TacomaWaWx]

Down to 28 here this morning. First low in the 20s this cold season. It’s also our first freeze since Halloween.

[TacomaWaWx]

20 degrees back at home after a 48/25 spread yesterday. Currently in Eatonville where it's 17.

 

The lows with this cold snap have been fairly respectable but the highs are a little underwhelming.

Yeah..not even 1 sub 40 high temp for a lot of us. Might get one today and one tomorrow but overall not the most impressive cold snap. The cold snap at the end of October, considering that it was in late October was a lot more impressive than this one.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Here is the EPS hour 312, courtesy of Ventrice. Looks wet. Wondering what it showed after that. It looks to be at least a bit different than what it had been showing.

 

[Jesse]

Low of 25 so far this morning.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS holds the front together better on Sunday...

 

 

 

[Jesse]

24 degrees here this morning which is kind of a surprise.  Rather odd distribution of temperatures in the valley this morning.  Unusual for me to be colder than most of them.

Looks like EUG is currently reporting 21, SLE 22.

[TacomaWaWx]

12z GFS brings very light precip up through Western WA Sunday morning as some light snow before changing over to rain.

I think the most likely scenario is we get to see some flakes fly in the air briefly in the morning but no accumulation and a quick changeover.

Honestly at this point, I'll take it. Better than nothing.

Probably will be snowflakes to a trace of snowfall. Going to be a higher chance of it accumulating south of Seattle and king county. I’m sure there will be another time this winter with a much better snowfall set up than this one. Until then however I’ll enjoy this micro event IF it does end up happening.

[TT-SEA]

Here is the EPS hour 312, courtesy of Ventrice. Looks wet. Wondering what it showed after that. It looks to be at least a bit different than what it had been showing.

 

EKieaYzWsAAj5oR.png

 

It has been showing that GOA trough for many runs... and its moving up in time accordingly.   

 

The EPS is dry overall for the next 15 days... but the 10-15 day period is actually a little wetter than normal now.    Its also pretty warm at the 850mb level in that period.   Hopefully that moisture can bring mountain snow.

 

[FroYoBro]

Might be some classic 33 degree light rain coming up for Portland! 

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS shows a bit more moisture for late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Hmmm.... A bit more bullish on Snow, Wintry Mix 2-8 AM. Possible trend to increase QPF and if so that could make things very interesting Salem northward.

[TacomaWaWx]

Really nice sunrise this morning.

[TT-SEA]

Here is the EPS hour 312, courtesy of Ventrice. Looks wet. Wondering what it showed after that. It looks to be at least a bit different than what it had been showing.

 

EKieaYzWsAAj5oR.png

 

 

Here is day 15:

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

21F this morning for our coldest temp of the season yet.

[TT-SEA]

Trend is the GFS is to not drop that late week trough so far south.    Maybe some hope for mountain snow.

[ShawniganLake]

23F for a low this morning

[ShawniganLake]

SEA is at 31 on the hour... first below freezing observation there.

Victoria Gonzales also recorded their first freeze this morning. 31F there.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Apparently EUG hit 19F at 7:45.

[ShawniganLake]

Campbell river, along the east side of Vancouver Island, hit 16F.

[TacomaWaWx]

Nice to see some rain and mountain snow through the next 10 days. Not a ton but it’s a start.

[Blizzard777]

Federal Way 25* dew point 16*

SE PDX 31* 

wind calm both locations

[Jesse]

Some improvements on the GFS toward a more active pattern. Now let's see it actually hold inside of 5 days.

[Gradient Keeper]

Some improvements on the GFS toward a more active pattern. Now let's see it actually hold inside of 5 days.

Yep. I want to see that exact same pattern at Day 5 on Monday 00z runs. C'MON!!!!

 

12z ECMWF in 1 hour 10 minutes

[umadbro]

Hopefully the skies cloud up first thing tomorrow morning to slow down any warming. Trapping the cool air at the surface will probably play a huge role in Saturday night's possible event.

[Blizzard777]

I’ll enjoy the chance

it something to track anyhow....sometimes you get a surprise

[Jesse]

Hopefully the skies cloud up first thing tomorrow morning to slow down any warming. Trapping the cool air at the surface will probably play a huge role in Saturday night's possible event.

If the upper levels warm too quickly or there’s not enough moisture it won’t even matter. The surface being cold enough is probably the biggest given right now.