CentralNebWeather Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Nam coming in strong as usual....ICON looking good for us. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 GFS coming in much stronger and north Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 GFS is caving to the EURO. Go figure. Looks like I'm in the game for at least a few inches 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 I don’t think we’re even close to locking anything in 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 I don’t think we’re even close to locking anything inJust having a little fun and hoping. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 D**n I have a double shift on Tuesday plz no Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 I'll be honest. When Tom first mentioned a November cold wave similar to 2014 I cringed inside. That one 5 yrs ago was such a slap with the Storm Watch GRR had me under being a bust, then what followed in December. At least this time I was treated to an historic storm (shoulda been my warning I didn't get in '14) and legit winter conditions for several days afterwards. Now we wait to see just how it goes for the lame December portion.Im not complaining. It is November. But nothing I’ve experienced is anything historic for my area. One big storm for sure melted quickly. But everything else is blah. No snow in forecast. I’m just hearing hype again with limited results. 2014 was the epitome of historic. Cutter after cutter coming up is just plain normal. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Canadian looks a tad further south than GFS and a little colder. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Heavy snow from Iowa city on north on the Canadian in Iowa. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 UK also now showing a stronger low passing through southeast Iowa, so we're seeing more agreement. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Euro looks good for Omaha 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Loving the euro, models starting to come to an agreement on the track. I would gladly take what the models are showing tonight! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Very good model agreement tonight. 00z Euro 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Only 3.5 days away, what could go wrong 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Only 3.5 days away, what could go wrongMy emotional state with this storm lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Hello from Indianapolis! On our way to North Carolina for Thanksgiving week. Good luck to everyone with the storm! I'll try checking in from time to time. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 23, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Hello from Indianapolis! On our way to North Carolina for Thanksgiving week. Good luck to everyone with the storm! I'll try checking in from time to time.Safe travels my friend! Have a great time in the south and while your down there, feast on some good ol' southern food! I'm a big foodie and I hear their BBQ is amazing. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 23, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Overnight runs are coming together and showing a rather potent and wound up storm system. 00z Euro gets it down into the 980's right over head and lays down a nice swath of accumulating snow. Lot's of peeps on here will be enjoying a "White Thanksgiving." Nice bullseye over OMA....and into NE IA/SW WI....heck, it may even snow AGAIN for some of the same people on Thanksgiving as "over-running" snows develop in the Plains/MW. This has been a fascinating few days tracking this storm when the models were going back and forth showing no storm, a big storm, weak storm...utilizing pattern recognition and "knowing" some important clues on how this season has stacked up thus far, I'm glad that this storm is coming together. 00z GEFS... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Overnight model runs weren’t friendly to those of us in eastern Iowa. It’s amazing how often the highway 30 to I80 corridor tends to be right on the rain/snow line. Obviously shifts in the track are very likely and it could shift further south but my hunch with such warm air in place and the possibility of a strengthening negatively tilted system is that the trend would be to shift further NW rather than the SE shift I need. I’m hoping my parents in NE Iowa cash in at least and I’ll get to see the snow piles when I visit for thanksgiving 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 I like the nw shift also with this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Good morning from Branson. Had a minute so I thought I would share last nights EPS mean. Also the 6z trended further south for Tuesday. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 6z EPS mean compared to 00z at the same hour. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Good morning from Branson. Had a minute so I thought I would share last nights EPS mean. Also the 6z trended further south for Tuesday.Thanks bud! Have fun there! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Ya know whats funny amigo, remember bout 2 or 3 years ago, not sure when (cant remember, maybe you can) where a model came out showing snowfall accumulations of 25"+ and then, 2 days later, all gone, zilch snowfall. This kinda had flashbacks. /\ Thx Clinton! Have fun in Branson for your holiday! NMI looking snowy on that 360 hr map 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Overnight model runs weren’t friendly to those of us in eastern Iowa. It’s amazing how often the highway 30 to I80 corridor tends to be right on the rain/snow line. Obviously shifts in the track are very likely and it could shift further south but my hunch with such warm air in place and the possibility of a strengthening negatively tilted system is that the trend would be to shift further NW rather than the SE shift I need. I’m hoping my parents in NE Iowa cash in at least and I’ll get to see the snow piles when I visit for thanksgiving Yep. If there is not much cold air out in front of a system, it's difficult for southeast Iowa to get snow. In this case, northern Iowa and southern Minnesota are climatologically favored. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 NWS Hastings and North Platte both talking about this storm next week and it’s potential effects as it is coming right before Thanksgiving https://twitter.com/nwshastings/status/1198204386805084162?s=21 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Im not complaining. It is November. But nothing I’ve experienced is anything historic for my area. One big storm for sure melted quickly. But everything else is blah. No snow in forecast. I’m just hearing hype again with limited results. 2014 was the epitome of historic. Cutter after cutter coming up is just plain normal. It was, but ONLY for areas that got hit good with the LES. The rest of us endured useless cold, lol 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 NAM is now in range, looks like every other model. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Man looks like a miss to the north here. Here's to hoping for a white Turkey Day! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 The gfs holds serve! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 12z GFS continuing its westward ticks. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Too warm this week...lots of good moisture heading towards the Plains and Midwest this week. Areas getting snow early on in the week will be quickly taking over by a warm surge and rain. Too bad we don’t have a good cold air mass in place as we could have really laid down a great snow pack across many areas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 The gfs holds serve!Nice Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Euro with a jump north. 990mb over SW Wisconsin. Trending... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Pretty quiet in here 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 12z Euro 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Need se shift just a little Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 I don’t see that but maybe a little more nw Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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