Stormy Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 I just now was looking back at several years worth of my weather data for today and noticed every day was different.Today three years ago it snowed over 4”, two years ago the high temp was 66° with a nice t. storm in the evening, one year ago there was low stratus with snow pellets at times, and today it was sunny and mild with a high of 49°. (Also reached 49° here yesterday). 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Some light snowshowers attm. Not even a dusting. Temp at 31F. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Some of you are about to get stupid cold! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Last nights 00z EPS/Euro took a big step towards the "Tropical Storm Olga" part of the LRC which produced the Gulf Low streaming due NNE up the OHV. This pattern late next week has massive potential in and around the MW/OHV/GL's region. I've had an asterisk next to this part of the LRC. Just look at those 3 blocks: 1) Arctic 2) SW Ridge 3) SE Canada Ridge 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Today's JMA weeklies run continues with a favorable MJO rotation back towards the colder Phases 8/1 later in December, specifically for Weeks 3-4. Below is a map for Week 2 which shows a slow progression through Phase 2...then things change...the pattern will get ferociously wild 2nd half of the month! By Weeks 3-4, the model is seeing Phase 8/1... Here's a map that illustrates the different phases and where to look for dryness that correlates to the suppression in the above map N and NW of Australia. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Last nights 00z EPS/Euro took a big step towards the "Tropical Storm Olga" part of the LRC which produced the Gulf Low streaming due NNE up the OHV. This pattern late next week has massive potential in and around the MW/OHV/GL's region. I've had an asterisk next to this part of the LRC. Just look at those 3 blocks: 1) Arctic 2) SW Ridge 3) SE Canada Ridge The 6z GFS has a decent take on this, hopefully it a little further west then this particular run has it. But oh my the potential this has! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Looks like Okwx will get his wish. I'm hoping Texas holds off till after Christmas. But the way things are,looking, we may get snow this winter in North Texas. Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Looks like Okwx will get his wish. I'm hoping Texas holds off till after Christmas. But the way things are,looking, we may get snow this winter in North Texas. The storm popping up in the 8-10 day time frame reminds me a bit of the storm back in Dec 2013. I know that was a huge sleet storm for DFW. I remember in Memphis it was mostly a 33 degree rain, just a glaze of freezing rain at the end. It was a monster everywhere north and west. 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 The 6z GFS has a decent take on this, hopefully it a little further west then this particular run has it. But oh my the potential this has!Look at all of that moisture to the south just waiting to explode northward. WOW! 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Attm, mostly cloudy and seasonably cold w temps in the 30s. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 There is also another snow potential for the weekend of (14-16th). 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Look at all of that moisture to the south just waiting to explode northward. WOW!Impressive! Either this time through or the Jan version is going to produce a monster, hopefully it does both times! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Impressive! Either this time through or the Jan version is going to produce a monster, hopefully it does both times!Yes sir! I have a strong feeling someone is going to get inundated w snow and wind next week. Also, all ingredients needed seem to be in place by that timeframe for this storm to be a "Big Dog." 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 As is typical in late November and December it has been cloudy with very little temperature variance. In the last 8 days in Grand Rapids there has only been 18 minutes of sunshine. And the temperature has range from just from the highest of 37 to the coldest of 26° Welcome to the clouds of winter here in west Michigan. At this time it is cloudy and 34 here at my house. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 The GFS has a huge storm in the southern untied states on December 14-15. It's too bad that it gets surpressed because of a strong high pressure over the midwest. It does not look very exciting weatherwise here for the next two weeks or so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 The GFS has a huge storm in the southern untied states on December 14-15. It's too bad that it gets surpressed because of a strong high pressure over the midwest. It does not look very exciting weatherwise here for the next two weeks or so. Good point. Nothing in Nebraska either for the foreseeable future. I can't complain as I've had a big storm along with several smaller events, but many others in Nebraska have had virtually nothing snow wise. Hopefully later in December and into January we can share the wealth more. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Man Arkansas gets blasted by gfs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Currently some flurries on and off w a more steady snow arriving late this afternoon. Nothing too excited. Temp at 34F. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Bleh plenty of cold air but no snow . Definitely looking active though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 12z GFS for KC.....NOTHING!! Same ole dry pattern here. Over 3 inches below average on moisture and we look to add to that. Chiefs 35. New England 17 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 12z has nothing down south now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Last nights 00z EPS/Euro took a big step towards the "Tropical Storm Olga" part of the LRC which produced the Gulf Low streaming due NNE up the OHV. This pattern late next week has massive potential in and around the MW/OHV/GL's region. I've had an asterisk next to this part of the LRC. Just look at those 3 blocks: 1) Arctic 2) SW Ridge 3) SE Canada Ridge Look at all of that moisture to the south just waiting to explode northward. WOW! Yeah, that looks beastly! That's a really strong signal for a 240hr range and I'd trust the Euro's depiction over the GFS's at this range. Nothing up til now has been suppressed. Even Vet's Day that initially looked to get shunted SE by the arctic cold wave did not. So I don't think we suddenly now at the very early start of the season see a sudden suppressed track like that one run of the GFS depicts. Either way, we have 1 or 2 "table setter" events to get through before models can fully get a handle and I'm sure they will go through their usual fluctuations during that time. Needless to say tho, seeing Tom's post got my blood pumping. Final winter yard prep slated for this weekend.. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Yeah, that looks beastly! That's a really strong signal for a 240hr range and I'd trust the Euro's depiction over the GFS's at this range. Nothing up til now has been suppressed. Even Vet's Day that initially looked to get shunted SE by the arctic cold wave did not. So I don't think we suddenly now at the very early start of the season see a sudden suppressed track like that one run of the GFS depicts. Either way, we have 1 or 2 "table setter" events to get through before models can fully get a handle and I'm sure they will go through their usual fluctuations during that time. Needless to say tho, seeing Tom's post got my blood pumping. Final winter yard prep slated for this weekend.. Indeed. I agree 100%. Euro is the way to go. GFS usually mocks up at the beginning and then plays catch-up. Someone in MI next week will get crushed by snow. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Attm, mostly cloudy and not that cold w readings at 36F. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Another gorgeous day here. We hit 60.3 degrees a bit ago and the wind is almost completely calm. Overperformed on the highs as we were supposed to stay in the mid 50s. Tough to be inside working! We cool down tomorrow before it's back up around 50 on Saturday and Sunday. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Another gorgeous day here. We hit 60.3 degrees a bit ago and the wind is almost completely calm. Overperformed on the highs as we were supposed to stay in the mid 50s. Tough to be inside working! We cool down tomorrow before it's back up around 50 on Saturday and Sunday.Still stuck in the 40's here. Amazing what still having snow on the ground can do. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Is it really 52 right now? Wow 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 18z GFS coming in snowier for many. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 6, 2019 Report Share Posted December 6, 2019 Attm, 36F under partly cloudy skies. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 6, 2019 Report Share Posted December 6, 2019 18z GFS coming in snowier for many. That's more like it! Getting into December now..something's gotta give! My office hitting the LES potential pretty hard in their AFD. Depending on wind direction, I could even up my ytd total a bit next Tue to Thu time frame. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 6, 2019 Report Share Posted December 6, 2019 18zGFS likes a lot of us. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 6, 2019 Report Share Posted December 6, 2019 Near miss for my area tanite.......most of the snow is confined to my north Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 6, 2019 Report Share Posted December 6, 2019 00z Euro still flashing the big potential late next weekend... Are there back-to-back storms lurking??? Yup, the 00z EPS last night is showing the "Halloween storm" part of the LRC with a good signal that the next storm slides down the Rockies into the "slot" by Day 9/10. IMO, this one has a larger potential to "share the wealth" across the central Plains up into the GL's. There are plentiful opportunities in this pattern. It's unfortunate some of us will miss out on the snow early next week when it was looking like there was a good chance of getting some snow before the cold hits. Hey, at least now with the cold coming, the ground will freeze and it will feel like winter before the next storm chances line up. You gotta look at this pattern as a "glass half full" if you will. You'll get your opportunity sooner rather than later. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 6, 2019 Report Share Posted December 6, 2019 This, I gotta see...00z GEFS temp mean suggests MSP tanks towards -20F...I haven't seen these maps since the Jan' 19 PV Intrusion... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 6, 2019 Report Share Posted December 6, 2019 EPS mean continues to grow further south with each run, and still favors the Great Lakes area. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beltrami Island Posted December 6, 2019 Report Share Posted December 6, 2019 00z Euro still flashing the big potential late next weekend... Are there back-to-back storms lurking??? Yup, the 00z EPS last night is showing the "Halloween storm" part of the LRC with a good signal that the next storm slides down the Rockies into the "slot" by Day 9/10. IMO, this one has a larger potential to "share the wealth" across the central Plains up into the GL's. There are plentiful opportunities in this pattern. It's unfortunate some of us will miss out on the snow early next week when it was looking like there was a good chance of getting some snow before the cold hits. Hey, at least now with the cold coming, the ground will freeze and it will feel like winter before the next storm chances line up. You gotta look at this pattern as a "glass half full" if you will. You'll get your opportunity sooner rather than later. I am not sure what potential you are referring to if you are talking snow. My backyard in northern Minnesota has some potential with the low in North Dakota. But, that large strong storm over PA has no cold air anywhere in the US or Canada for that 972mb low to incorporate for any meaningful snow. The main snow field is due to elevation of the Appalachians. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 6, 2019 Report Share Posted December 6, 2019 Not much showing up right now outside of the north country and the LES belts. However, Set up looks great for my area to get a flash freeze, several inches of LES and nightmarish travel Tuesday into Wednesday. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 6, 2019 Report Share Posted December 6, 2019 Attm, cloudy and windy w temp at 34F. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 6, 2019 Report Share Posted December 6, 2019 Not much showing up right now outside of the north country and the LES belts. However, Set up looks great for my area to get a flash freeze, several inches of LES and nightmarish travel Tuesday into Wednesday. Yep, your area next week looks great for LES. Get ready! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 6, 2019 Report Share Posted December 6, 2019 I am not sure what potential you are referring to if you are talking snow. My backyard in northern Minnesota has some potential with the low in North Dakota. But, that large strong storm over PA has no cold air anywhere in the US or Canada for that 972mb low to incorporate for any meaningful snow. The main snow field is due to elevation of the Appalachians.We are talking about a storm that is 8-9 days out. All I’m doing is pointing out that this has big potential. Do you think a model will have a clue about phasing/strength/track at this range? I doubt it. Nonetheless, the pattern setting up upstream favors a buckling trough somewhere in the eastern Sub. Your area is definitely not in the game except for maybe some lighter snows from the Northern wave Fri/Sat period that dives sought out of Canada. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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