December 2019 Observations & Discussion

[Clinton 4427]

A few flurries flying around puts you in the Christmas Holiday spirit. Temp at 33F.

Euro showing a nice little system pushing through your neck of the woods a week from tomorrow, lets see if it strengthens.

[Niko 7225]

Euro showing a nice little system pushing through your neck of the woods a week from tomorrow, lets see if it strengthens.

Indeed. Its only a matter of time until we start adding to our snowfall dept again. Next week gets a lot colder!

[gimmesnow 328]

All this time we go through this, I keep telling myself that the winters that start out with a strong Novermber and early December usually have horrible Januaries and Februaries. Looks like we have some hope as long as it can stay around.

[Clinton 4427]

12z EPS mean continues the snowier trend.

 

[OmahaSnowFan 1386]

2" mean in the next 15 days? Count me in!

 

12z EPS mean continues the snowier trend.

 

[OmahaSnowFan 1386]

Zzzzzzzz....

 

National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
256 PM CST Mon Dec 2 2019

...Updated Forecast Discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 247 PM CST Mon Dec 2 2019

Overall, the weather should have limited impacts over the next
week as quiet pattern takes hold over eastern Nebraska and
western Iowa. It is within the realm of possibility that the area
goes a week without precipitation, which would be the longest such
stretch for the forecast area in 2019.

[Andie 1826]

Have to control my laughter at the DFW snow prediction.

Save a flake for me boys!

[snowstorm83 2042]

Lol 18z gfs drops the arctic hammer mid month

[Grizzcoat 3790]

 

 

The Des Moines radar will be down for the next two weeks.  Fortunately, it does not appear the radar will be needed.

maybe even 4 weeks...

 

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=dmx&product=FTM

[Niko 7225]

Some very light snow currently w temp at 32F. No accumulations.

[jaster220 8344]

Not sure what "avg" snow coverage is to open December, but I'd say we ain't doin too bad in that dept.

 

 

Impressive depths across the UP of Mich:

 

 

 

 

If this is any indication for what is ahead then regions further south should do well as we turn the corner into real winter. 

[Beltrami Island 428]

 

 

 

 

 

 

If this is any indication for what is ahead then regions further south should do well as we turn the corner into real winter. 

 

 

 I have never understood statement like this.  Is there any actual evidence that snow on the ground has any effect on the track of future storms?  It is something I have never seen to actually happen, but it seems to get repeated without question.

[Niko 7225]

Attm, 31F w flurries.

[Niko 7225]

Looks like NYorkers are enjoying this little snowstorm this evening..........

 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey and southeast New York. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions should impact the evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. Check local Department of Transportation information services for the latest road conditions. &&

[Grizzcoat 3790]

 

 

 I have never understood statement like this.  Is there any actual evidence that snow on the ground has any effect on the track of future storms?  It is something I have never seen to actually happen, but it seems to get repeated without question.

Not sure. But I think it comes down to overall pressure tendencies and with a building snowpack compared to bare ground the pressure should tend (over the long haul) to be greater over snow than bare ground .Case in point would be IA with the last two storms with sub 992 MB low passing right over DSM- the first one was literally the lowest pressure in the region and  went right over the top and a few days agojust to the NW. Latest GFS has another going over the top next week but many changes between now and than-- and oh yeah- bare ground to a T of snow here now but when the "L" went over or nearby- nothing- so I think their is some evidence for the theory but imo- it does get over used.- but it sure seems that Lows have been riding that snow cover / bare ground line for the last several events. ( this of course wouldn't pass the Clipper test but those are different animals all together)

[Stormhunter87 969]

Wait a minute the 18z gfs showing a snow storm over Dallas. 23 inches. If that was to happen I'm pretty sure they would be crippled for weeks.

[snowstorm83 2042]

Wait a minute the 18z gfs showing a snow storm over Dallas. 23 inches. If that was to happen I'm pretty sure they would be crippled for weeks.

 

Looks like a ton of sleet and freezing rain. Either way, still crippled for weeks.

[Niko 7225]

If all goes well, an Arctic Outbreak blasts a lot of us by next week.

[Niko 7225]

Wait a minute the 18z gfs showing a snow storm over Dallas. 23 inches. If that was to happen I'm pretty sure they would be crippled for weeks.

Crazy!

[Mi_Matthew 233]

Not sure what "avg" snow coverage is to open December, but I'd say we ain't doin too bad in that dept.

 

nsm_depth_20191202_National.jpg

 

Impressive depths across the UP of Mich:

 

nsm_depth_20191202_Northern_Great_Lakes.jpg

 

 

 

If this is any indication for what is ahead then regions further south should do well as we turn the corner into real winter.

Several 0z Euro ensemble members must have been listening. Quite a shift south with healthy snow depths versus yesterday's 12z guidance.

[Tom 16887]

Several 0z Euro ensemble members must have been listening. Quite a shift south with healthy snow depths versus yesterday's 12z guidance.

Are you referring to the system that is showing up early next week 8th-10th?

[Mi_Matthew 233]

Are you referring to the system that is showing up early next week 8th-10th?

Just an observation looking at each ensemble member at the very end of the run (12/17). Not sure which storm is responsible.

[Clinton 4427]

The EC and Euro ensembles continue to show a large system around the 14th.  If this is related to the gulf system that happened between Oct 24th-26th, then I would look for more of a eastern trend.  Jaster, Niko, and Michigan folks I bet remember this system well.

 

[Tom 16887]

"Cold times are coming Back"...my goodness, last nights 00z Euro/GFS drop the Arctic Hammer as the "Nanook From the North" makes a visit across the central CONUS.  I hope you guys up north that have a deep snow pack have your wood stocked and on the ready...ya'll gonna freeze up there!  Holy smokes, that's some vicious cold for early December....several days/nights Sub Zero????

 

 

 

 

 

 

While combing through last nights model runs, as well as the last couple days worth of runs, it has shown to me how powerful of a tool the LRC can be along with other LR forecasting tools I have been accustomed to use in this Forum.  My excitement is starting to build as I'm starting to feel pretty confident in my call that severe winter is in fact knocking on the doorstep and we are about to enter a very active/cold period.  If you thought for a second I was crazy going against the model world which suggested torch, torch, never ending torch....I will say, sometimes it takes a little bit of crazy and bold decisions to prove a point in the end.

 

Last night's 00z EPS has turned significantly colder and "following" the GEFS lead which had been jumping on the idea of cold returning post 10th.  Nature has done it's job and laid down a widespread snow pack up north and for us farther south this is a big deal as cold HP's will seed cold for our future storms that are lined up on the calendar.

 

 

 

 

Let's talk about the storm that's been showing up later this weekend into early next week.  I think it's going to take a couple more days of runs for the models to hone in on the southern energy as being the stronger piece.  I don't have access yet, but the EPS is starting to show more runs along with the GEFS ensembles.  The 00z GEFS trends are looking better for storm development coming out of the "slot" near the TX Panhandle and tracking near the OHV.

 

If we are to believe the LRC, those of us in the eastern portion of the Sub are in line to benefit from the storm systems as we enter this colder pattern.  It's going to get wet and cold...Who's ready???  I'm ready...let's roll...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Tom 16887]

The EC and Euro ensembles continue to show a large system around the 14th.  If this is related to the gulf system that happened between Oct 24th-26th, then I would look for more of a eastern trend.  Jaster, Niko, and Michigan folks I bet remember this system well.

 

 

Nice, I like seeing a lot of those members showing the storm track farther south and widespread.  Some very nice hits showing up.  Fun times ahead!

[Clinton 4427]

Nice, I like seeing a lot of those members showing the storm track farther south and widespread.  Some very nice hits showing up.  Fun times ahead!

I maybe overlooking the storm on the 9th and 10th a little bit, it was a stronger more organized storm in Oct. Will the +AO and NAO mess with it this time?  But I completely agree with you about the cold and strongly favor the eastern half of the sub getting taken to pound town the next 2 weeks.

[Tom 16887]

I maybe overlooking the storm on the 9th and 10th a little bit, it was a stronger more organized storm in Oct. Will the +AO and NAO mess with it this time?  But I completely agree with you about the cold and strongly favor the eastern half of the sub getting taken to pound town the next 2 weeks.

Yes, it is certainly making the pattern more progressive instead of blocking it up. Back in early Oct, we had a -NAO that slowed down the system and with a +NAO during this period it will be a faster flow.  How do the EPS ensembles look for that period?

[Clinton 4427]

A few are bullish but most are progressive

 

[Tom 16887]

A few are bullish but most are progressive

 

 

 

At this range, just glad to see there is an opportunity present to lay down some snow before the cold comes.

[Tom 16887]

Interesting stat regarding our nations snow cover....

 

 

 

45.4% of the contiguous US has snow cover with avg. depth of 2.8 " (image on the left). That is some of the most extensive snow cover for the date since NOAA began tracking in 2003. Last year's coverage (left image) at this point was 41.4% with avg. depth of 2.3". #ilwx

[westMJim 1863]

Getting some light snow falling here at this time with a temperature of 32. There is still 2" of snow on the ground here.

 

This past summer I had mentioned several times the lack of thunderstorms we had here in Michigan.  Well that can and was a good thing in 2019 there were two tornado watches that covered part of Michigan…one that just included Berrien and Cass Counties and another for the western third of the UP.

[Niko 7225]

Cloudy w some spotty snow around. Dusting at the most. Nice to see this as this puts you in the Christmas Holiday Spirit. Temp is at 29F.

[Niko 7225]

NOAA:

 

The medium range
model suite continue to indicate a long wave pattern change late in
the weekend into early next week, featuring ridge amplification
across the west coast and an amplification of long wave troughing
over the central US. This will place Se Mi within the strengthening
southwest flow and will allow a warming trend Sun into Monday. This
warm spell is likely to be brief as there is indications that the
polar low will sink into northern Ontario by the middle of next
week, driving arctic air into the Great Lakes. This may also set up
a period of active weather along the arctic front, affecting Se Mi
late in the forecast period.

[OKwx2k4 4220]

The EC and Euro ensembles continue to show a large system around the 14th. If this is related to the gulf system that happened between Oct 24th-26th, then I would look for more of a eastern trend. Jaster, Niko, and Michigan folks I bet remember this system well.

 

Soooo,,, a couple of those may have my attention. Lol.

Euro says "all-in" or gold, no in between yet. Maybe as we get closer. Not counting my snowfall and akes before they fall down here.

[Clinton 4427]

Soooo,,, a couple of those may have my attention. Lol.

Euro says "all-in" or gold, no in between yet. Maybe as we get closer. Not counting my snowfall and akes before they fall down here.

Hope the trend keeps going this way.  The artic air coming down over the snow pack up north that Tom showed will help.

[gimmesnow 328]

"Cold times are coming Back"...my goodness, last nights 00z Euro/GFS drop the Arctic Hammer as the "Nanook From the North" makes a visit across the central CONUS.  I hope you guys up north that have a deep snow pack have your wood stocked and on the ready...ya'll gonna freeze up there!  Holy smokes, that's some vicious cold for early December....several days/nights Sub Zero????

 

 

 

 

 

I'm not too greedy in early and mid December. I'll take a lack of snow. But those are beautiful snow blowing conditions.

 

Looks like good snow up north by my Uncle, hopefully we get to go snowmobiling since his kids are little ****, lol.

[Clinton 4427]

12z GFS trending stronger for the 10th

 

[Tom 16887]

I'm not too greedy in early and mid December. I'll take a lack of snow. But those are beautiful snow blowing conditions.

 

Looks like good snow up north by my Uncle, hopefully we get to go snowmobiling since his kids are little ****, lol.

After reading your post yesterday, I was thinking about you and others on here who enjoy the outdoors during Winter around our region.  This December is going to deliver the "goods".  I wouldn't worry to much about long warm spells for the remainder of this month.  The only worry is if there is a warm cutter but that isn't looking likely at the moment based on what I'm seeing.  Saddle up!

[Tom 16887]

12z GFS trending stronger for the 10th

 

 

That's more like it...certainly starting to sniff out the stronger southern energy this run...

 

[Madtown 1092]

having a feeling of stuck in the middle...storms north and storms south....need me a clipper train

[jaster220 8344]

 I have never understood statement like this.  Is there any actual evidence that snow on the ground has any effect on the track of future storms?  It is something I have never seen to actually happen, but it seems to get repeated without question.

 

Grizz had a good response, but I will add one of my own since it was my post you're referring to. 

 

My comment/s come from experience over decades of following winter patterns for the Lwr MW/GL's/OHV and was not regarding exact track/s of future storms. It was based on Climo, seasonal norms, and signs-n-signals of an active pattern vs a lack of action. Just see maps from 2011-12 for the opposite of what I (and Tom later) posted and how they were indicating bad, bad news for snow lovers. When you see a lot more bare ground N and W in S Canada and the upper tier of states - worry! And that's not to say every good winter has to include those regions in deep snow cover, but knowing what we know about the forecast and expected "flavor" of this upcoming winter, the snow cover we see now makes sense and aligns very well with the anticipated progression. Again, this isn't about saying storms will "ride the southern boundary of current snow pack". Some may, and some may not. That's an unproven theory in my book.  But, a lack of good snow cover N and W of my region would be very concerning for the future of our DJFM, just as arid and hot conditions to my S and W in May of 1988 foretold an impending strong heat-wave/drought summer heading my way. Hope that helps.  

[jaster220 8344]

having a feeling of stuck in the middle...storms north and storms south....need me a clipper train

 

What? You worried about missing out on the 2" his map shows for mby??   

[jaster220 8344]

Nice, I like seeing a lot of those members showing the storm track farther south and widespread.  Some very nice hits showing up.  Fun times ahead!

 

I be ready for dat! 

 

WPC seems to be "sniffing" it as well

 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

[jaster220 8344]

Got a little ground covering of snow this early morning. On the board for Dec! 

 

Tom, the orientation of the thermal boundary looks picture perfect with several maps you posted today such as this one:
 

 

 

If this doesn't indicate or induce an OHV tracking SLP, I don't know what will? (has to verify ofc  ). Remember when I said I would "see you, and raise you Dec 11-12, 2000"?? 

[jaster220 8344]

Getting some light snow falling here at this time with a temperature of 32. There is still 2" of snow on the ground here.

 

This past summer I had mentioned several times the lack of thunderstorms we had here in Michigan.  Well that can and was a good thing in 2019 there were two tornado watches that covered part of Michigan…one that just included Berrien and Cass Counties and another for the western third of the UP.

 

Prolly more in parts of greater GR. My daughter had biz there this morning. Got a txt later saying "Wow there's snow here!".  Guess she was clueless about Sundays' storm and how it narrowly missed us a couple counties south. 

[Tom 16887]

Social media is on fire with "Coldmageddon" talk....it's nice to hear Winter is coming back...

[Tom 16887]

Since last Thursdays JMA weeklies run, the Euro has slowly trended away from Phase 3 of the MJO....signaling the colder trends in its Week 1-2 period.  I'm sure future runs in the EPS forecast will continue to head lower.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

[jaster220 8344]

Social media is on fire with "Coldmageddon" talk....it's nice to hear Winter is coming back...

 

With last December, guess you could call it unique, but we had that record cold stretch just 2 Christmas's ago. Peep's memories are quite short - just sayin'

[GDR 665]

[MIKEKC 413]

Tom,

 

12z GFS for KC says most of the cold will stay north and east of here, has most days above average and no big storms. Matter of fact, very dry run.

 

You thinking we get into the action after the 15th or so.