snow_wizard Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 Going forward the thing to watch for at the very end of the month is going to be how flat or amplified the ridge just off the coast ends up being depicted on the models. A flatter ridge can more easily lead to a good outcome as upstream high pressure cells can more easily piggy back onto the flat ridge. We want that cold air in AK to remain until a GOA ridge can amplify enough to drive it toward us. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 00z Euro showed almost a half inch of snow falling from Snohomish County northward Christmas morning and a skiff in the EPSL. Best run yet for that. Not expecting much, if anything, but still. Something to watch and at this point I'd gladly take just seeing some snow fall in the air. The little cold snap next week has certainly become more impressive over the past couple of days. 850s are -5 or so for about 5 days now on the latest runs. Around the same time 1936 started to get interesting as well. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 A. Nice to see you back B. Isn’t the SE ridge a bit of a downstream response anyway. If the ridge amplified and the trough dug into the west, then the SE ridge would likely show up. Indeed. The lower heights being shown over the SE are a left over artifact from a departing trough. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 We all just can't/don't extrapolate as well as you apparently. When we see models and ensembles keep puking over themselves, what do you expect? You and Culverjosh are the only people who say the goods will happen soon with zero evidence. The models have actually been all over the place taking turns on showing something good trying to happen. Typical behavior before a major event. The table is set for a great winter. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 Night shift is back! That is one way you can tell things are on the uptick. If this latest improvement on the EPS is for real we will see some great model improvements over the next couple of days. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 I'm curious what Phil's thoughts are on this. Looks like a strat warming might be starting. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 Yep. BIG improvement in fact. Block/positive anomaly is further west in the sweet spot. The cold isn't dumping out off Alaska into the Gulf of Alaska. Heights in BC/AB dramatically lower than previous runs. No deep trough carving out over the eastern half of the country. There is some amplification noted with the block, we just need more of it and tilt. Of course a southeast ridge always helps. Interesting how the Day 11-15 EPS mean and Control run are mirroring each other. My optimism is building. Good to see you back! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 Currently 35 chilly degrees. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 Nobody does a Christmas song like Burl Ives. 2 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 Nobody does a Christmas song like Burl Ives.Or Stan Boreson!! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 Today’s sunrise at Timberline Lodge 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 Im hopeful that the LR maps verify and lead to snow...but that is still a long ways out. Id like to see possible cold coming down the pipeline sooner before building up my excitement. I have some hope that this winter will deliver though. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 Pretty amazing model improvement. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 Down to 39 degrees in Tacoma this morning...pretty foggy here. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 Pretty amazing model improvement. In what way? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 In what way?You never know if hes serious...lol. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 In what way?. I thought I was the only one who couldn’t see it so I thought I’d just jump on board to sound smartly. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 You never know if hes serious...lol.He is not serious. Have you looked at the 12Z GFS for later this week? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 s**t. I thought I was the only one who couldn’t see it so I thought I’d just jump on board to sound smartly. I thought you were pretending to be Tim or something. Those storms that were showing up a few days ago sure got destroyed. Looks dry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 He is not serious. Have you looked at the 12Z GFS for later this week?Im pretty sure everyone has...thats why its quiet this morning. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 Time to go back to a very boring pattern. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 In what way?Green horn. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 The 12z is much flatter with the offshore ridge around New Years Eve and the AK PV is much more west than previous runs. Good stuff! 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 Looks like above average temps in Alaska and the Yukon around that timeframe as well. Anchorage 10 day forecast should trend warmer. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 462 heights are impressive in western Canada. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 We all just can't/don't extrapolate as well as you apparently. When we see models and ensembles keep puking over themselves, what do you expect? You and Culverjosh are the only people who say the goods will happen soon with zero evidence.I wouldn’t compare sno wizard to culver. Seems insulting. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 I wouldn’t compare sno wizard to culver. Seems insulting.I’m just hoping the fireworks on New Years Eve don’t warm up the upper levels too much to where we only get sleet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 This is the 850mb temp anomaly map for the control model. That actually shows the AK cold dropping toward us and already here to some extent. The change in the mean was pretty dramatic so it's pretty exciting.I doubt any cold outbreak will come from AK this year without a SSW to release the TPV. If this were Niña/+QBO it’d be another story, but to drive the cold south of the border this time you probably want a ridge up in Alaska. Also, if you look at the individual members of the EPS, the ones with the strongest Alaskan vortex are the warmest in the PNW, and vice versa. So it’s deceptive. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 I’m just hoping the fireworks on New Years Eve don’t warm up the upper levels too much to where we only get sleet.Looks like my new snowblower is going to be sitting idle for awhile. No thanks to your “fishing buddy.” Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 I’m just hoping the fireworks on New Years Eve don’t warm up the upper levels too much to where we only get sleet.What happened to your NWS buddy. Or are none of us even pretending to not think that was a complete lie anymore. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 What happened to your NWS buddy. Or are none of us even pretending to not think that was a complete lie anymore.He is on vacation but he never told me anything has changed. And theoretically the back end of the AR hasn’t exited the region yet so let’s see how it plays out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 The 12z is much flatter with the offshore ridge around New Years Eve and the AK PV is much more west than previous runs. Good stuff!Is this sarcasm? That’s the exact opposite of what you guys want to see. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 He is on vacation but he never told me anything has changed. And theoretically the back end of the AR hasn’t exited the region yet so let’s see how it plays out.This definitely sounds pretty dense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 This definitely sounds pretty dense.Yes, 65 at Timberline, 34 in Portland, dense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 462 heights are impressive in western Canada. The cold in AK and the Yukon is ridiculous on this run. Talk about potential! This run is a giant step in the right direction. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 The 12z GFS demonstrates the inherent challenge of amplifying a +EPO regime containing the TPV. Usually the attempts at amplification will send the cold air way east until the vortex frays and surf can dislodge it. As long as the TPV itself is in/north of Alaska there is little chance of cold making it south of the border, unfortunately. Most of it will be hurled off to the east. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 Is this sarcasm? That’s the exact opposite of what you guys want to see. The flatter ridge at that point leads to a better outcome. I've seen It many times before. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 The 12z GFS demonstrates the inherent challenge of amplifying a +EPO regime containing the TPV. Usually the attempts at amplification will send the cold air way east until the vortex frays and surf can dislodge it. As long as the TPV itself is in/north of Alaska there is little chance of cold making it south of the border. Most of it will slide east. Tell that to Feb 1989. No doubt this thing has super potential to go good for us. Earlier runs tapped into the cold and dumped into the East. This run some of it makes it down this way. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 The flatter ridge at that point leads to a better outcome. I've seen It many times before.Such as? Was the TPV located in the Beaufort Sea? Hard to see anything happening until said TPV disintegrates or departs the western Arctic. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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