December 28th/29th Potential Plains/Great Lakes Cutter

[Clinton]

It is the NAM so I wouldn't panic yet.  Keep the hope!

[CentralNebWeather]

The 00z NAM really went dry for Nebraska this run.

Going to be a tough forecast. Lots of moving parts. Seems all models have a little different look and being around the 32 degree mark can cause precipitation type issues. Here’s NWS Hastings latest tweet. https://twitter.com/nwshastings/status/1210348803670212608?s=21

[Clinton]

Going to be a tough forecast. Lots of moving parts. Seems all models have a little different look and being around the 32 degree mark can cause precipitation type issues. Here’s NWS Hastings latest tweet. https://twitter.com/nwshastings/status/1210348803670212608?s=21

It seems they are doing the best they can, there is not much consistency with the models as far as amounts.

[CentralNebWeather]

It seems they are doing the best they can, there is not much consistency with the models as far as amounts.

They are covering all their bases. Probably won’t end exactly as predicted right now, but no one can say they haven’t been warned well ahead of time if ice and snow cause problems. I am happy and proud of the job they do for our area.

[jaster220]

As mentioned, most guidance now includes the development of a secondary SLP. To include the NAM, I reviewed the location of said SLP at 12z Monday morning. The Euro  & GEM were almost a cc of each other and furthest NW in N WI near Grn Bay. Meanwhile the NAM wasn't far off them, but the GFS and ICON are well east, even in WNY (ICON). Tons of spread to get resolved. The final solution of track and pivot/stall location will be critical to whether I can score anything measurable from this event. 

 

Edit: Update, 0z ICON and GFS are now almost a cc of each other with a 987/985mb SLP just around the Thumb of the Mitt or in Lk Huron. That's quite a shift west for the ICON btw. 

[jaster220]

One thing I'm liking is that all the majors have a pretty deep SLP. 

 

NAM: 993 mb

Euro: 988 mb

GEM: 988 mb

ICON: 987 mb

GFS: 985 mb

 

This is a serious help when it comes to Lk enhanced events as the low baro means there's better lift to overcome other ingredients that might be weak or missing. It's this very item that helped the LES overachieve with 2-5" on the 10th when my office was saying "dab" to 1/2"

[jaster220]

Here's a loop (pun intended  ) of the ICON. Perfect stall location due N, good moisture & wind vectors. Keeps it going a nice long time over my county too. This is likely the "best case" scenario tho. Still, my confidence in at least seeing flakes flying is increasing, even if the amounts aren't impressive in the end. I'm still entertaining a chase to wherever the real-deal plowable event sets up shop. 

 

[jaster220]

0z GEM takes a step in the direction of team ICON/GFS. It's a little bit quicker getting the SLP up into Lk Superior but ends up about the same outcome in the end. GFS briefly goes down to 979 mb fwiw. Doubt that happens, but nice to see regardless. All 3 want to begin the transition from RN to SN across WMI as early as 18z Monday. I'm sure 2m temps will be lagging tho, especially with any lake warmth shadow in play. 

[Niko]

0z GEM takes a step in the direction of team ICON/GFS. It's a little bit quicker getting the SLP up into Lk Superior but ends up about the same outcome in the end. GFS briefly goes down to 979 mb fwiw. Doubt that happens, but nice to see regardless. All 3 want to begin the transition from RN to SN across WMI as early as 18z Monday. I'm sure 2m temps will be lagging tho, especially with any lake warmth shadow in play. 

You might have a shot at this w a little LES.

[Niko]

Here's a loop (pun intended  ) of the ICON. Perfect stall location due N, good moisture & wind vectors. Keeps it going a nice long time over my county too. This is likely the "best case" scenario tho. Still, my confidence in at least seeing flakes flying is increasing, even if the amounts aren't impressive in the end. I'm still entertaining a chase to wherever the real-deal plowable event sets up shop. 

 

20191227 0z ICON h102-129 Surf Loop.gif

Been a long time since I saw a map like that. Perhaps, 45 days ago or so.

[jaster220]

Been a long time since I saw a map like that. Perhaps, 45 days ago or so.

 

I'd like to get back to the days of seeing a map like this for SMI 

 

[Niko]

I'd like to get back to the days of seeing a map like this for SMI 

 

Real 48h snow map for Feb1-2 2015.GIF

Now this is what we should be seeing. What year was that?  

 

Man, that is what, umm, a foot+ for mby

[gabel23]

I will be watching the trends in the models tomorrow; I’m looking for a southeast trend of the SLP and I should be in the game. It looks like another “ride the line by 20 miles storm” that seems to be the norm for my area for the past couple of years. I need a more north/south orientation of the deformation zone rather than the tilt that most of the models have been showing after occlusion. We shall see! In the meantime, we host a holiday basketball tournament starting tomorrow and we conclude on Saturday. Last year our tournament lost a day because of a snowstorm, hopefully this is a sign of things to come!

[Tom]

As some of you pointed out, the secondary wave of energy coming up from the South is now becoming an interesting piece to the puzzle around the GL's region.  While the trends for those farther out west are not looking that good, that is not the case farther east as the 00z Euro is the most aggressive dumping some appreciable snows in WI and in the snow belt regions of MI.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

00z GEFS...

 

[Clinton]

00z EPS mean

[Tom]

@Tom, I know it's fantasy land but the GFS and EC have flashed a big storm around the 8th of Jan.  It seems to look a lot like a storm we had around the 21st of Nov.  Just wanted to see if this was one on your radar or not?

Based on what I'm seeing, there should be a storm during this period using the BSR and the LRC.  I'm concerned, however, that the lack of blocking may take this storm north and zip on by.

[james1976]

Love how that snow shield curves right around me

[jaster220]

Now this is what we should be seeing. What year was that?  

 

Man, that is what, umm, a foot+ for mby

 

That was a h48 total snow map for Feb1-2 2015 storm. Most ever shown by a model for mby that wasn't a fantasy range storm. 

[jaster220]

Love how that snow shield curves right around me

 

Wacky winter so far with the ball bouncing crazily. This was looking like a lost cause a couple days ago, now random things are going my way. It's very hit-n-miss, nothing solid about this winter. Like newly formed pond ice, ya just can't trust it. 

[Niko]

Wacky winter so far with the ball bouncing crazily. This was looking like a lost cause a couple days ago, now random things are going my way. It's very hit-n-miss, nothing solid about this winter. Like newly formed pond ice, ya just can't trust it. 

 

 

That was a h48 total snow map for Feb1-2 2015 storm. Most ever shown by a model for mby that wasn't a fantasy range storm. 

I know what ya mean...this Winter ups and downs in the models have been consistently going. I.E., the reaal cold air that was showing January has now been warmed a bit. So, there ya go. It cant keep the cold like other Winters.

 

I think I remember it now, it rings a bell amigo. Thanks for the info.

 

[jaster220]

As some of you pointed out, the secondary wave of energy coming up from the South is now becoming an interesting piece to the puzzle around the GL's region.  While the trends for those farther out west are not looking that good, that is not the case farther east as the 00z Euro is the most aggressive dumping some appreciable snows in WI and in the snow belt regions of MI.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

00z GEFS...

 

 

Thx Tom. I was hoping to see the Euro join the secondary party. It sorta had with the 26/12z but the backwash snows were super thin. This makes more sense wrt what the surface maps were doing. Living down wind of the big lake is going to pay dividends for WMI yet again. Euro smacks most of Wisco impressively as well. Will be one of the better surprise developments if it verifies. Ofc, I was hopeful when we saw and discussed the stalling/spinning/looping Lows back in autumn that if they continued over winter it could be a positive thing for LES here in the Mitt. It's no longer triple-digit time stamps either, so I have to think this has a chance of being #freal.  

[jaster220]

From the 27/0z suite. Some amazing consistency at h84 from the Euro and GFS on SLP placement/strength:

 

Euro:

 

 

GFS:

 

 

 

[jaster220]

My office fairly bullish overnight..

 

-- Return to winter Monday through Wednesday

Colder air surges into the area Monday morning which remains in
place into mid week. Precipitation will rapidly change from rain
to snow Monday morning with accumulations likely. System snow is
expected on Monday associated with a deepening low across the
Lake Superior region. Monday night into Tuesday night lake effect
snow is expected in westerly flow off of Lake Michigan. The lake
effect side of things looks impactful with deep moisture and delta
T`s in the lower to middle teens. We are looking at accumulating
snow by mid week for areas across Central and Western Lower
Michigan especially. Details will be ironed out as this comes more
into the near term.

[FarmerRick]

I sure hope this is overdone. Don't need that much rain on top of semi frozen ground  

 

[Hawkeye]

A few days ago it looked like 1-2" of rain around here.  The westward shift has put us more in the 0.50-1.00" range, and much of that should fall overnight (because precip here is only allowed to fall at night).

[jcwxguy]

Nws is calling for 8"-16" at my in-laws

[OmahaSnowFan]

I'm heading up to Yankton, SD today for the weekend. They're right on the edge of the potential heavier snowfall, so who knows what will happen.

The point grid forecast has 10" but with snow first, then rain on Saturday, then back to snow Sat night and Sunday, so it'll probably be a slopfest.

I'll sure miss not seeing the 2+" of rain here in Omaha though

[Clinton]

CMC much more bullish with the second wave.

[CentralNebWeather]

CMC much more bullish with the second wave.

Models have really lowered snow amounts. Not surprised with temps around 32. The Canadian has always been the most bullish for Central Nebraska. I think that would be including sleet to get those numbers. Local met has my county 3-4” which still may be too high imo. My prediction is 2” of snow, I’m not counting other precipitation types in this number. Let’s see how it plays out.

[jaster220]

CMC much more bullish with the second wave.

 

I noticed the GEFS mean had the 2" line well south and east of me, the Euro around 2" mark, and now the GEM looks like about 3" here. And, I just realized that Tues is still December, lol. I may actually be adding to this months total via an "at the buzzer" score! 

[St Paul Storm]

I’ll take what the King is selling. 6” here mostly on the backside ain’t too shabby. Not buying it, but fun to look at.

[Stacsh]

GRR bullish on snow here Monday night and Tuesday. Nice lake surprise ?

[Money]

18z NAM went from nothing on 12z to 10+ inches in central and northern WI on the 18z.

 

Looks like it develops a good secondary low

[Niko]

My office fairly bullish overnight..

There ya go bud! Get the shovels and snowthrower ready.

[jaster220]

There ya go bud! Get the shovels and snowthrower ready.

 

Haha. I was at my sister's farm a few weeks ago and she was asking me about some stuff I'd stored there years ago so I asked about my snow blower. (the only thing I was really half interested in). She told me she thinks she gave it to one of her step-kids    . At least it went for a good cause and wasn't just sold to a stranger. Nope, it's all shovel power here in the city for this guy!  

[jaster220]

18z NAM went from nothing on 12z to 10+ inches in central and northern WI on the 18z.

 

Looks like it develops a good secondary low

 

Models have been taking turns showing a good hit with the secondary. Problem is each one's been different as to exactly who/where it hits. For me, the further west SLP gets the worse I will do. Need it to stall due N of me up in Superior for best outcome. Prolly be a now-cast til we know where it stalls and pivots. Most of WMI will do fine regardless, just not mby. 

 

Edit: Using Tue 06z for comparison's sake.  NAM/GEM/ICON/Euro all clustered with the SLP western UP or Keweenaw region at (+/-)990 mb's 

 

Only GFS is now far eastern outlier with a 990 mb SLP just north of SSM, Ontario

[jaster220]

NAM "may" be contaminated with sleet in areas where a mix is likely prior to switch-over. Nonetheless, the models seem to be pulling that axis of heavier snowfall south a bit from where it was focused across ONT on prior maps. Just enough blocking or drop in the AO to blame?

 

18z NAM @ h84 (storm ongoing for MN/WI/MI Peeps) 

 

[Clinton]

NAM "may" be contaminated with sleet in areas where a mix is likely prior to switch-over. Nonetheless, the models seem to be pulling that axis of heavier snowfall south a bit from where it was focused across ONT on prior maps. Just enough blocking or drop in the AO to blame?

 

18z NAM @ h84 (storm ongoing for MN/WI/MI Peeps) 

 

20191227 18z nam h84 snowfall SLR.png

Jaster, are you thinking 2 -4 for you on Monday?

[CentralNebWeather]

Sleet has just begun falling here. Should be an interesting next 48 hours or so

[Niko]

Haha. I was at my sister's farm a few weeks ago and she was asking me about some stuff I'd stored there years ago so I asked about my snow blower. (the only thing I was really half interested in). She told me she thinks she gave it to one of her step-kids    . At least it went for a good cause and wasn't just sold to a stranger. Nope, it's all shovel power here in the city for this guy!  

Built those muscles ehh!!!