MossMan Posted January 2, 2020 Report Share Posted January 2, 2020 Sharing this for posterity.And before MLK Day! That 10/-6 day would be lovely! Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 2, 2020 Report Share Posted January 2, 2020 Operational is a bit of an outlier, in more ways than one. We lost some ground in the long range. Not much indicating an arctic event. Better than jalapeño spam I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 2, 2020 Report Share Posted January 2, 2020 Tim is in rare form tonight. FYI - 850s have nothing to do with the sexy 500mb pattern the GFS has been showing. Which of course we know will not happen. Stop Andrew. Just because you think of something does not mean that is what I am thinking about. You can say the same thing without making it personal... I would listen and be receptive. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 2, 2020 Report Share Posted January 2, 2020 Funny the operational is a warm outlier on the 10th though. Not the same model, so I'm not sure outlier is the correct term here. Or do those graphs show the new GFS operationsl with the ensembles run from the old one? A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted January 2, 2020 Report Share Posted January 2, 2020 GEM is not on board. I keep thinking about Mark's post on the GFS running too cold at the 850mb level in the mid and long range. Just seems like the GFS is always the coldest model after day 7 recently.Are repeats some kind of new feature Fred coded in?? 2 Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted January 2, 2020 Report Share Posted January 2, 2020 Sharing this for posterity.Ya but what if this verified? How historic would a 10* high be? Once every 100 years? Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 2, 2020 Report Share Posted January 2, 2020 Sharing this for posterity.That's cold enough to put your socks on! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lisa0527 Posted January 2, 2020 Report Share Posted January 2, 2020 I'll only share it if you get more Canadians to post.Ok...I’m posting.we still have a foot of snow on the ground by the end of the run. Not 2 feet like the 18Z, but we’ll take it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 2, 2020 Report Share Posted January 2, 2020 Are repeats some kind of new feature Fred coded in?? I just can't remember a model situation like this in which one model was running so much colder than the other models so consistently. But maybe the compromise will just slowly happen over the next week. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 2, 2020 Report Share Posted January 2, 2020 00z GEM Day 5-10. Not there yet, but it's heading that way quickly at Day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted January 2, 2020 Report Share Posted January 2, 2020 Sharing this for posterity.D**n Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 2, 2020 Report Share Posted January 2, 2020 I'm not so sure about that. When they were testing the FV3, the main bias I remember in comparison to the old GFS was it tended to overdo precip in some situations. Seems like if there was a cold bias it would have been noted and addressed.They delayed the launch because the FV3 was a cold bias. I highly doubt they just sit on it without any fixing leading up to the delayed launch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 2, 2020 Report Share Posted January 2, 2020 Why can't people just focus on weather? All of the other stuff is annoying.I can “like” post again! lol, I was editing post to say Timmy Supercell has much work to do to get caught up and you already liked my post! Your awesome ! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 2, 2020 Report Share Posted January 2, 2020 Fun fact - member 35 has been the most accurate one to day and all other members fall to it. This member shows not only no snow, but also limited precip and seasonable to mild temps. Maybe it is leading the way?35 is nicknamed the Tim Member! Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 2, 2020 Report Share Posted January 2, 2020 I'm not so sure about that. When they were testing the FV3, the main bias I remember in comparison to the old GFS was it tended to overdo precip in some situations. Seems like if there was a cold bias it would have been noted and addressed. Good to know. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted January 2, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 2, 2020 Thank you Fred. Now if we could pls fix that pic posting bug on mobile. I don't mind tilting my laptop to its side to see your pictures Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 22 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, 5/15, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted January 2, 2020 Report Share Posted January 2, 2020 I just can't remember a model situation like this in which one model was running so much colder than the other models so consistently. But maybe the compromise will just slowly happen over the next week.The real good stuff still doesn’t arrive for 10+ days so massive model spread on surface or near surface details is still pretty pointless. The upper level pattern looks great on all of the ensembles after day 9-10 so the setup is there for Arctic air. We’ll just have to wait and see how the surface details play out over the coming days. 1 Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 2, 2020 Report Share Posted January 2, 2020 Not the same model, so I'm not sure outlier is the correct term here. Or do those graphs show the new GFS operationsl with the ensembles run from the old one? They do on the Wetterzentrale site. Looks like a lot of members go full arctic in the 13-15th range. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 2, 2020 Report Share Posted January 2, 2020 2 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 2, 2020 Report Share Posted January 2, 2020 35 is nicknamed the Tim Member! Side note... I told my wife and kids tonight that February was going to be repeated and we would be buried alive and frozen solid and there is no way that it will not happen at this point. True story. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 2, 2020 Report Share Posted January 2, 2020 Mean at PDX drops all the way to -6.6C at 04z on the 14th. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 2, 2020 Report Share Posted January 2, 2020 I'm pretty shocked at how consistent the GFS has been on the extreme blocking pattern. I think the ECMWF will at least move toward it. The 0z ensemble is the best yet with the mean bottoming out at -7.5 over SEA. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 2, 2020 Report Share Posted January 2, 2020 Vancouver Seattle Portland 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 2, 2020 Report Share Posted January 2, 2020 Snow matix from the EPS for Vancouver Do you have to pay for this graphic? Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 2, 2020 Report Share Posted January 2, 2020 The ECMWF almost has to start caving tonight. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 2, 2020 Report Share Posted January 2, 2020 Side note... I told my wife and kids tonight that February was going to be repeated and we would be buried alive and frozen solid and there is no way that it will not happen at this point. True story. Are you going to be unburying yourselves again to get to the airport? Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 2, 2020 Report Share Posted January 2, 2020 C’MON! Columbia Basin Cold Pool! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 2, 2020 Report Share Posted January 2, 2020 Operational is a bit of an outlier, in more ways than one. That doesn't look anything like the 850 graph I've seen. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 2, 2020 Report Share Posted January 2, 2020 Vancouverens_image.png Seattleens_image 1.png Portlandens_image 2.png The chart Hawks posted only went out 10 days. I was thinking it was 2 weeks. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 2, 2020 Report Share Posted January 2, 2020 The chart Hawks posted only went out 10 days. I was thinking it was 2 weeks.No, ,the run just completed so it's up to 2 weeks now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 2, 2020 Report Share Posted January 2, 2020 All the crap aside, I think maybe a forum get together is in order. I feel like we can all bond over some BBQ, beer, and refreshing the TropicalTidbits page over and over.I still think we should all meet at Chris’s BBQ business when he gets the location! 4 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 2, 2020 Report Share Posted January 2, 2020 Are you going to be unburying yourselves again to get to the airport? Depends on what we see coming as it gets closer... an impromptu trip might be in order. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 2, 2020 Report Share Posted January 2, 2020 Its interesting that tomorrow is equal to the coldest point in the ensemble mean 850mb temp line. So according to the ensemble mean... we are about to experience the coldest air in the next 2 weeks and it will be repeated several times.That is assuming you live at the 850mb level. For those of us that don't, week 2 temps are a lot colder than tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 2, 2020 Report Share Posted January 2, 2020 I am going back and reading the December 2013 thread. It seems like a lot of people were pretty disappointed around the 4th as the modified arctic air started filtering in and it became apparent the snow event on the 6th was going to go south. It seems like I was one of the only people pointing out the potential for cold lows in the S. Valley the coming weekend, and accurately predicting Sunday morning would be the coldest. Fun to walk back through a great event. 3 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 2, 2020 Report Share Posted January 2, 2020 All the crap aside, I think maybe a forum get together is in order. I feel like we can all bond over some BBQ, beer, and refreshing the TropicalTidbits page over and over.I can cater the food part!! Someone else will have to do the beer part. I am not up to speed with millenial and boomer choices of beer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 2, 2020 Report Share Posted January 2, 2020 Interested to see what the CPC analogs are for the 00z GFS. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 2, 2020 Report Share Posted January 2, 2020 The GEM appears to be in a good place at day 10 also. At this point it looks like we may have it nailed down to somewhere in the 8 to 12 day period for the good stuff to begin. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 2, 2020 Report Share Posted January 2, 2020 That is assuming you live at the 850mb level. For those of us that don't, week 2 temps are a lot colder than tomorrow. He wasn't even correct about that anyway. The mean drops to -7.5 later on. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 2, 2020 Report Share Posted January 2, 2020 8 to 12 day pattern may eventually end up in February, ****...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 2, 2020 Report Share Posted January 2, 2020 That doesn't look anything like the 850 graph I've seen.It sure doesn’t. I fell into a deep depression when he posted that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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