Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[HighlandExperience]

2 day totals ending Thursday night.

 

Really improved for King County.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 day totals ending Thursday night.

 

 

2-4" of snow PDX to EUG, but temps by Thursday afternoon are in the upper 30s even at PDX on this run.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This run is worse for PDX mid-week because it is so much warmer, not because of precip. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2-4" of snow PDX to EUG, but temps by Thursday afternoon are in the upper 30s even at PDX on this run.

 

Sadly, this is a reasonable solution.

 

That said. I'm still highly skeptical of this at all. But it would be really nice to at least see a sub-40 high.

[Deweydog]

If only October had been a LITTLE colder...

[Requiem]

This run is worse for PDX mid-week because it is so much warmer, not because of precip. 

 

Oh, that's actually pretty reassuring all things considered. 

[TT-SEA]

It still cold on Friday per the 12Z ECMWF

[bainbridgekid]

[luvssnow_spokane]

NO! STAY PUT!

Start north and SLOWLY drop south would be ideal for all AND is usually a common outcome with these type of setups. BRING IT!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

The lowest possible total through D16 on the 12z GEFS members for Bellingham is 8 inches. The average crosses 10 inches by Friday.

 

I'd be feeling pretty good if I was living up there.

 

 

It indeed looks favorable for me, but I’m trying not to count my chickens before they hatch. It’s never too late for a rug-pull.

[OysterPrintout]

The main event on Wednesday is pretty much just ~4 inches now on the latest euro for PDX. The 00z had 7 inches and the 12z before had 9-10. Not exactly a good trend there. 

 

I hope there will be some other dynamics with this low that are maybe better picked up by mesoscale models. 

 

Yeah unless Mon/Tue overperform which looks fairly unlikely at this point we really have to hang our hat on Wednesday cause the models are an absolute mess after that, ranging from reload to messy transition to quick warmups.

[luvssnow_spokane]

And it mainly stays north of I-90 and then actually moves a little norhward before falling apart.   

 

I expected it to push southward into Pierce County.

Super common outcome and would be surprised if it did not gradually sag south into Pierce County as the night progresses.

[Skagit Weather]

I'm threading the needle with my location at the Whatcom/Skagit line.

 

Yeah, it looks like it will be marginal for this area. Places to the north could get hammered while those to the south might end up with nothing. No idea where that dividing line will set up.

[HighlandExperience]

Super common outcome and would be surprised if it did not gradually sag south into Pierce County as the night progresses.

I’d be surprised if that doesn’t drop south over Pierce than fizzle out

[Jesse]

Glad to see the PDX radar back up.

[Perturbed Member]

This run is worse for PDX mid-week because it is so much warmer, not because of precip. 

 

It is both. Precip is unmistakably worse. 

Last 3 euro runs, this makes it pretty clear.

 

 

[Cloud]

Mid 30s by 4pm Sat. And near 40 by 10pm.

 

Snow on the ground ain’t sticking around for long.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Eugene is the big snow winner out of PDX, SLE, EUG on this run. 

[Deweydog]

Mid 30s by 4pm Sat. And near 40 by 10pm.

 

Snow on the ground ain’t sticking around for long.

Tomorrow?

[TacomaWaWx]

November 2010 was brought up earlier...Models way under forecasted how much snow we ended up with in my area...So I’m not panicking...Yet...

I think sunday night will end up being better than the models show for everyone in western WA. Models really struggle with this type of stuff.

[Cloud]

Tomorrow?

Every week.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well guyz we will just have to figure this out as we go. I think Seattle will do well with the C-zone. There is definitely a clear path now for PDX-south to get skunked. 

[runninthruda206]

Total snow by the end of the week...

 

I’ll take it. Lock it IN!

[Requiem]

Let’s hope models trend better for the PDX-south folks...

[TT-SEA]

Somehow this pattern...

 

 

 

... is still cold.

 

[Omegaraptor]

Why is the Euro so deadset against forming a cold pool in the Columbia Basin compared to the GFS? I don’t get it.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I've got the 4 kiddos this weekend so it's gonna be tough to post but this is gonna be so fun to track!

[SouthHillFrosty]

Betting line for SeaTac...8 inches?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Betting line for SeaTac...8 inches?

 

Under...but still 7"

 

I would set the O/U for

 

PDX at 2.5"

SLE & EUG at 3"

 

If I were betting I would take the under, but it still won't be bubkis. At least flakes in the air.

[Phil]

Glad to see the PDX radar back up.

Why is that radar always going down? And at the most inopportune times?

[Cloud]

Somehow this pattern...

 

 

 

... is still cold.

 

Unbelievable really. After a brief warm up we go back into the ice box. The run ends with W. Wa in the low to mid 20s.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So what would qualify as a bust? For PDX I think anything less than 5" of snow and 2 sub-freezing highs would be pretty disappointing considering the lead up to this "event."

[Phil]

Total snow by the end of the week...

 

Once those pinks start showing up, you know it’s legit.

[SnarkyGoblin]

Why is that radar always going down? And at the most inopportune times?

Probably upgrading/maintenance before the storm(s).

[runninthruda206]

Unbelievable really. After a brief warm up we go back into the ice box. The run ends with W. Wa in the low to mid 20s.

Holy that’s consistent with the gfs after the 19th wow!

[Phil]

Somehow this pattern...

 

 

 

... is still cold.

 

Because of the block over the western Arctic.

 

Acts like a super west-based -NAO. Saw that in 1969.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Under...but still 7"

 

I would set the O/U for

 

PDX at 2.5"

SLE & EUG at 3"

 

If I were betting I would take the under, but it still won't be bubkis. At least flakes in the air.

 

 

O/U if I were setting it.

 

PDX: 4"

SLE: 3"

EUG: 3"

 

Right now EUG is the bullseye for the Monday system. I'd take the over on all of those right now. 

[MossMan]

Raw wild day! This is what winter should be like! Wind is blowing the rain sideways along I-5, temp in the 30’s...Love it!

[Front Ranger]

Mid 30s by 4pm Sat. And near 40 by 10pm.

 

Snow on the ground ain’t sticking around for long.

 

Only about a week. 

[Esquimalt]

Because of the block over the western Arctic.

 

Acts like a super west-based -NAO. Saw that in 1969.

Do you see us having a cold febuary?