bud2380 Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 French model. oui oui http://img.meteocentre.com/models/arpege_amer_12/P1_GZ_D5_PN_090_0000.gif 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 18z GFS doesn't seem to be changing much from previous runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 GFS not budging yet, still a big nothing for most. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 i guess the GFS does strengthen a little later and east, hits Chicago pretty good and areas of MI. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 8, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 18z GFS... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Minnesota! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Its actually better than 12z run and more compact at the end Baby steps Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 8, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 15z SREF's... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Minnesota!That’s from the Sunday/Monday system being shown on the GFS, and Euro. High pressure here won’t allow this storm to cut NW. Don’t buy the 18z NAM either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 NWS KC current take on the storm. Friday evening and Friday night, the system changes itsappearance quite a bit and introduces a potentially moderate tohigh impact winter weather event. As the aforementioned surfacetrough continues eastward cold air will filter into the region.Ongoing "warm" rain will then interact with with the sub freezingtemperatures from NW/SE with time causing an accretion onsurfaces, especially elevate surfaces. This transition will likelycome earlier in the day across NW MO and NE KS, and likely laterin the day toward the late evening and overnight hours across theKC Metro and points south and east. The strength of the cold airat the surface may be enough to make the freezing rain transitiona shorter one, and quickly go into sleet. One thing that lookspretty certain now is that the warm nose just off the surface inthe H9 to H7 layers appears to be pretty strong and tough toerode. This should insure a longer transition through the wintrymix blend.The certainty with how this system will play out decreases bymagnitudes as it moves into the snow phase. Current runs of latestmodels indicate a neg-tilt mid level wave slowly pushing throughthe area Saturday morning. Mid and low level features at thispoint do point toward a pretty favorable track for this region toreceive formidable snow. However, there is some uncertainty asto the exact track. That being said, through the night on Fridaynight into Saturday morning the low level cold air will eventuallyerode the warm nose, and a transition to snow will take place. Theaforementioned uncertainty regarding exact snow totals andlocation remain through the forecast period. It is notable thatrecent model runs have come in a bit more aggressive for snowtotals in the region, namely the NAM/EC/Canadian. GFS also shows asomewhat aggressive snow forecast, but differs quite a bit in thetrack. Given the spread in possible solutions, will still pass onissuing any direct snow amounts for now, but the trends dogenerally favor a period spanning from early Saturday morningthrough at least Saturday afternoon for moderate to perhaps someheavy snow in the region. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Any update on 18z euro? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 That HP will help steer this storm more SE. It does not make sense to go NW. That is what the GFS is seeing. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 NOAA: This wave coming ashore in California willget sampled by upper air Thursday morning so models should have abetter handle on the scenario for Thursday afternoon package. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 That HP will help steer this storm more SE. It does not make sense to go NW. That is what the GFS is seeing.I guess you can see the future 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Any update on 18z euro?Just now starting to roll out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Just saw a tweet from a meteorologist that 18z euro isn’t backing down and similar to 12z 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 18Z Euro 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Looks like 12z 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Beautiful Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Looks like 16-20 inch swath from eastern IA into DBQ and SW WI Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Gfs ensembles took a dive SE from 12z Lost its amped up members Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 18z EPS mean 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Well Euro or GFS....which one has done better? Havent really.paid attention with the lack of storms. Worlds apart though! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Well Euro or GFS....which one has done better? Havent really.paid attention with the lack of storms. Worlds apart though!Whichever one looks better for your area. So definitely the Euro. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 NAM will be back southeast somewhat this run. The southern wave took a big jump west on the 18z run. The 00z has moved it back east by half. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Yup. Def going southeast and faster this run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Still showing a lot of fzr Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 10” for Iowa city. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Looks like EPS mean has ticked SE as well the past several runs. I’m still not confident in significant snow yet 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Please keep the cold rain away ugh. Of course the EURO/NAM are NW, scary signs for us in the city, given itd be like 50 miles north that we miss out. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 4-6 for mby. I'd take it 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Typical approach from my office. They've already decided the fate, while other offices are saying "not really nailed down yet" We are fairly confident with regards to p-type for Saturday withsome fine tuning needed as we approach the timeframe. Freezing rainwill eventually set up for much of the area north of I-94 to aroundM-20, with mainly rain south of I-94, and mainly sleet and snownorth of M-20. A small change in the low level thermal profiles willhave big impacts on the eventual prevailing p-type. The freezingrain area is of most concern due to the biggest impacts of potentialpower outages and icy roads. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Otherwise, nothing but rainer here. Turning into another zzzz-fest. Thought I'd at least have a shot at some RN>>SN Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Typical approach from my office. They've already decided the fate, while other offices are saying "not really nailed down yet" We are fairly confident with regards to p-type for Saturday withsome fine tuning needed as we approach the timeframe. Freezing rainwill eventually set up for much of the area north of I-94 to aroundM-20, with mainly rain south of I-94, and mainly sleet and snownorth of M-20. A small change in the low level thermal profiles willhave big impacts on the eventual prevailing p-type. The freezingrain area is of most concern due to the biggest impacts of potentialpower outages and icy roads.I'd wait till tomorrow afternoon, if not till Friday. Nothing is set in stone yet. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 mby is Likely going to miss the heaviest snow to the North and East - but will be content with 2" and not having to deal with copious amounts of cold rain in the dead of winter. no thanks- https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=qpf_acc&rh=2020010900&fh=84&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc= Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 The ICON should come back nw a bit this run. The 18z had the nw edge of the snow at the QC. I'm going to guess the QC will be in solid snow this run, but it won't be back to CR. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Icon coming in slower and SW with the southern wave compared to 18z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 18z ICON Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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