1/10 - 1/11 Plains/Lower Lakes Major Winter Storm

[OmahaSnowFan]

Our NWS annual climate report put out the other day showed a pretty interesting stat I thought.

I don't recall exactly where we were at through Dec '18 for snowfall, but at the most it wasn't anything exceptional. Then Jan '19 we had 13" and Feb '19 had 27". Then the catastrophic flooding in March...

Here's the strange stat: our last measurable snow was March 7th which is the 13th earliest last snowfall. So we were dumped on through February and then it switched back and we had an early ending to all the snow.

 

How ironic is it that our first major snowstorm of the season looks to occur during the second weekend of January, just like it did back in January 2019. After January 12, 2019, the snowfall quickly added up and we finished with 50" by April, with no snow falling in November or December of 2018. I hope this is a sign that there are more snowstorms on the horrizon that will allow us to bulid up a big snowfall total for this winter. 

[FarmerRick]

Local Mets are starting to support the first wave being juicier here.

 

 

I'm sure they are praying for anything these days. Hasn't been much to forecast so far this winter.

[Madtown]

12z Euro...

Ah yes please!

[hlcater]

Both ratio maps can be right or wrong.  Of course, sometimes 10:1 won't get the job done.  I am certainly not against the posting of Kuchera maps.  I get as curious as the next guy what the Kuchera map is suggesting for totals.  However, when trying to guess how much snow I will receive, I just like to look at the 10:1 maps and then adjust the ratio myself based on various factors.

 

Back to the "We're supposed to get a foot" talk from my Mom's friend... I have literally never measured a foot of snow from any storm in my lifetime, so I can't imagine we'd get that much from this storm.

 

Kuchera to me is usually the upper bound of totals if everything goes right, or can also be used to suggest ratios less than 10:1. But in order to achieve the Kuchera ratio, almost everything has to go right, such as flake size, temps aloft, wind etc. That just doesn't happen very often. 

[bud2380]

Both ratio maps can be right or wrong.  Of course, sometimes 10:1 won't get the job done.  I am certainly not against the posting of Kuchera maps.  I get as curious as the next guy what the Kuchera map is suggesting for totals.  However, when trying to guess how much snow I will receive, I just like to look at the 10:1 maps and then adjust the ratio myself based on various factors.

 

Back to the "We're supposed to get a foot" talk from my Mom's friend... I have literally never measured a foot of snow from any storm in my lifetime, so I can't imagine we'd get that much from this storm.

 

I have searched high and low for snowfall history in Cedar Rapids, and cannot find any good reliable information. Do you happen to have any?

 

On roughly January 20, 1996 while in high school living in Guttenberg, IA we got a massive blizzard and the local spotter in Guttenberg who reported to KGAN reported 15" of snow.  I can't say yes or no to that number, but it was a lot of snow and certainly I think at least a foot.

 

I need to get my old records from North Liberty out, I have them saved on a flash drive somewhere.  But I recall 12" on the GHD blizzard and there was 1 other storm possibly back in '08 that I reported 12" and then one in I think 2013 or so that I had 11".  I typically do my own measuring and then look for official spotter reports from North Liberty or Tiffin or Solon to help corroborate my totals.  If I think mine may have been affected too much by drifting, etc I'll usually go with the spotter since I don't do the snowboard and all that stuff.  I try to take a bunch of measurements and average them.  

[Clinton]

12z EPS mean

[centralweather44]

Our NWS annual climate report put out the other day showed a pretty interesting stat I thought.

I don't recall exactly where we were at through Dec '18 for snowfall, but at the most it wasn't anything exceptional. Then Jan '19 we had 13" and Feb '19 had 27". Then the catastrophic flooding in March...

Here's the strange stat: our last measurable snow was March 7th which is the 13th earliest last snowfall. So we were dumped on through February and then it switched back and we had an early ending to all the snow.

Local weather here in Lincoln showed Lincoln had 16.5” as off January 1st 2019 for that season to date. Then picked up close to 35” the rest of the season. I don’t see us getting that lucky this year. We are sitting at 4.2” for the season. Biggest snow fall being 1.4”

[Hawkeye]

I have searched high and low for snowfall history in Cedar Rapids, and cannot find any good reliable information. Do you happen to have any?

 

I have searched for Cedar Rapids snowfall history many times.  There does not appear to be much available data.  There is a station called "Cedar Rapids #1", which I think is on the northeast side or even Marion, that has some available data.

 

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/COOP/cat.phtml?station=CRPI4&year=2019&network=IA_COOP

[hlcater]

12z EPS mean

 

 

One fat dose of member #1 please

[Hawkeye]

12z EPS mean

 

Could you post the EPS mean snow map through only the first wave Friday night?  Thanks.

[Clinton]

Could you post the EPS mean snow map through only the first wave Friday night?  Thanks.

Here ya go bud.

[Clinton]

12z EC wave 1 and 2

[East Dubzz]

My NWS point forecast is showing 6.8" over the whole storm period. I would take that.

[FarmerRick]

Local weather here in Lincoln showed Lincoln had 16.5” as off January 1st 2019 for that season to date. Then picked up close to 35” the rest of the season. I don’t see us getting that lucky this year. We are sitting at 4.2” for the season. Biggest snow fall being 1.4”

We sure don't need another spring like the last one!!

[BrianJK]

[Hawkeye]

Wave #1 is now within range of the HRRR.... pretty robust.

 

[Sciascia]

WSW posted for parts of LOT. NW sections with more snow in their watch than Cook/closer to the lake counties.

[Minny_Weather]

Yippie. At least none of this is gonna freeze.

 

 

 

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
125 PM EST Thu Jan 9 2020

...Heavy Rainfall Possible Friday Evening Through Saturday...

.The risk for flooding will develop Friday evening through
Saturday across the watch area as multiple rounds of moderate to
heavy rain move over northwestern Ohio.


OHZ003-006>009-017>019-027-028-036-100230-
/O.NEW.KCLE.FA.A.0001.200111T0000Z-200112T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Wyandot-
Crawford-Marion-
Including the cities of Toledo, Bowling Green, Port Clinton,
Fremont, Sandusky, Findlay, Tiffin, Norwalk, Upper Sandusky,
Bucyrus, and Marion
125 PM EST Thu Jan 9 2020

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued a

* Flood Watch for portions of north central Ohio and northwest
Ohio, including the following areas, in north central Ohio,
Crawford, Erie, Huron, and Marion. In northwest Ohio, Hancock,
Lucas, Ottawa, Sandusky, Seneca, Wood, and Wyandot.

* From Friday evening through Saturday evening

* Rain will develop this evening with multiple rounds of moderate
to heavy rain expected Friday evening through Saturday. Any
rainfall will quickly run off, which may lead to flooding. Storm
total rainfall this evening through Saturday evening will
generally be 1 to 3 inches with isolated higher amounts
possible.

* The risk for flooding will be elevated, particularly in poor
drainage areas, near creeks, streams and ditches, and in urban
areas. Minor to moderate river flooding could develop this
weekend.

 

[james1976]

NAM has to cave....

[dubuque473]

Looking good here, hopefully it pans out.

[East Dubzz]

The first wave is looking even more robust on the 18z NAM. 

[bud2380]

18z NAM says if you think I was amped and NW on 12z, hold my beer.  Yowza.  

[Tom]

So close....20-30 mi shift south makes such a big deal for millions of people across the Chicago area...

 

 

[james1976]

So close....20-30 mi shift south makes such a big deal for millions of people across the Chicago area...

 

 

Man you are riding the edge hardcore over there. Nail biter

[GDR]

Holy smokes on the 18z

[hlcater]

NAM/HRRR are really in pretty decent agreement on the first wave. Both are noticeably more amped than the rest of guidance.

[Stormhunter87]

Based on the hrrr if it could push north just a little we would score.

[Snowshoe]

And you're one of maybe a handful of people hoping for said shift south.

 

So close....20-30 mi shift south makes such a big deal for millions of people across the Chicago area...

[bud2380]

NAM caved to the other models for the 12.15 -12.17 storm.  Will it do so again?

I would imagine so.  It's really strong with that first wave.  No other model is even close to this strong.  Euro was pretty amped and still is half of what the NAM shows.  I usually just trust the Euro until it proves me wrong.  

[BMT]

3km NAM looks solid as well

[Madtown]

So close....20-30 mi shift south makes such a big deal for millions of people across the Chicago area...

 

 

wowzers

[bud2380]

NAM wave 1

 

[East Dubzz]

18z NAM seems to be a definite shift east, I think.

[Clinton]

18z NAM seems to be a definite shift east, I think.

The last 3 runs have each shifted east slightly.

[bud2380]

NAM coming in further SE with the 2nd wave

[Hawkeye]

Four runs ago, the NAM had nothing in Iowa from wave 1.

 

There could be a nice thumping from that, but someone is going to get stuck under the sleet band while locations just north get good snow.

[BMT]

HRRR round 1:

[FarmerRick]

NAM coming in further SE with the 2nd wave

Depending on where you're at...   much flatter than other models.

[mlgamer]

NWS Wichita has issued a WS Watch for SE KS, so that bodes well for points north and east into Topeka and KC areas...

[bud2380]

I'd take it, LOL