Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion

[Winterdog]

Finally the sun popped out. 28F

[seattleweatherguy]

Don’t give up hope, so far Jay isn’t off the wagon

[MossMan]

Going to savor these last snowflakes coming down now since I am getting missed tonight.

[OysterPrintout]

When cold air is well-entrenched in the gorge and subsequently the valley the models almost always are too quick and too aggressive with scouring it out. The GFS, at least right now, is and has pretty vastly overestimated this cold air mass. According to the 18z, PDX should be around freezing right now, just for reference.

 

As for tomorrow, the gorge isn’t a huge factor. There just isn’t enough time or enough of a tap to get that machine cranking.

 

You mean the last 18z? I show the current one with us at 39 at 3pm which is pretty close to kpdx at 38. Though I agree temps look a little wonky elsewhere.

[MikeInEverett]

NWS and Cliff Mass still going with Seattle northward for snow tonight.

[Front Ranger]

Going to savor these last snowflakes coming down now since I am getting missed tonight.

 

You're gonna end up one of the biggest winners yet again.

[MossMan]

Have I mentioned just how much I love where I live now...it’s awesome! I’m up in those trees.

[TT-SEA]

You are completely missing their very obvious point.

 

They are talking about money.

And I am not talking about money.

 

Like Kayla saying snow lovers should move to Bozeman. Which also happens to be pretty expensive.

[kokaneekidz]

Winter storm warning hoisted for 14 hours

[seattleweatherguy]

Winter storm warning hoisted for 14 hours

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Seattle WA

333 PM PST Tue Jan 14 2020

 

WAZ001-503-506-507-510-511-555-556-558-559-151200-

/O.UPG.KSEW.WS.A.0003.200115T0200Z-200115T1500Z/

/O.NEW.KSEW.WS.W.0003.200115T0200Z-200115T1500Z/

San Juan County-Western Whatcom County-Western Skagit County-

Everett and Vicinity-Admiralty Inlet Area-Hood Canal Area-

East Puget Sound Lowlands-Bellevue and Vicinity-

Seattle and Vicinity-Bremerton and Vicinity-

including Friday Harbor, Eastsound, Bellingham, Blaine,

Point Roberts, Ferndale, Lynden, Sumas, Sudden Valley,

Burlington, Mount Vernon, Sedro-Woolley, La Conner, Conway,

Everett, Lynnwood, Marysville, Stanwood, Port Townsend,

Oak Harbor, Coupeville, Langley, Shelton, Seabeck, Belfair,

Brinnon, Bonney Lake, Maple Valley, Monroe, Woodinville,

Arlington, Granite Falls, Lake Stevens, Snohomish, Gold Bar,

Duvall, Carnation, Fall City, Snoqualmie, North Bend, Covington,

Black Diamond, Orting, Eatonville, Bellevue, Bothell, Kenmore,

Mill Creek, Clearview, Kirkland, Newcastle, Redmond, Sammamish,

Issaquah, Seattle, White Center, Tukwila, Renton, Burien,

Des Moines, Kent, Federal Way, Bremerton, Poulsbo, and Indianola

333 PM PST Tue Jan 14 2020

 

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM PST WEDNESDAY...

 

* WHAT...Areas of heavy snow expected. Snow will spread east from

the Olympic Peninsula later this evening and into the overnight

hours. Localized heavier snow bands are expected to develop,

especially from northern King County into Snohomish County.

Areas within heavier bands could receive 3 to 5 inches of new

snow. Elsewhere, outside of the heavier bands, widespread light

to moderate snow may accumulate, 1 to 3 inches. Uncertainty

continues in the placement of the heavy snow bands. Widespread

snow fall will lift north towards the Canada border into

Wednesday morning.

 

* WHERE...Portions of northwest and west central Washington.

 

* WHEN...Until 7 AM PST Wednesday.

 

* IMPACTS...Travel, including the morning commute, could be very

difficult.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in

your vehicle in case of an emergency.

 

For the latest road conditions in Washington state, call 5 1 1.

 

&&

 

$

[TT-SEA]

Have I mentioned just how much I love where I live now...it’s awesome! I’m up in those trees.

Really... all lowland snow lovers should move to within 10 miles of you! As I said last week.

 

Even North Bend does not do as well as your area at the same elevation.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Looking at sat pic and radar i would say the models are full of shitt. Seattle area will get a few inches is my prediction. 

[Winterdog]

Going to savor these last snowflakes coming down now since I am getting missed tonight.

Reverse psychology again?

[MikeInEverett]

Only got to 28 today! It’s gonna warm up a bit later though it seems.

[kokaneekidz]

NWS and Cliff Mass still going with Seattle northward for snow tonight.

They are right . It never warms like the model wishes it would

[Omegaraptor]

And I am not talking about money.

Like Kayla saying snow lovers should move to Bozeman. Which also happens to be pretty expensive.

Bozeman gets 85” which is really good for a city of its size.

 

Truckee, CA gets over 200”. Possibly the snowiest city over 5000 pop. Pretty expensive there as well though.

[MossMan]

Massive dumpage now! Wow!

[Perturbed Member]

Latest HRRR finally realized the error in it's ways and came around to all the other models.

 

Only took about 12 hours after the 06z Euro.

 

 

HRRR is honestly a trash model for anything beyond just 2-4 hours out. IMO it should just be used as a short term radar extrapolator and nothing else. 

[HighlandExperience]

Wow. Upgraded to a warning. A little surprised.

 

They made sure to put maple valley in there so you feel better

[GHweatherChris]

Looking at sat pic and radar i would say the models are full of shitt. Seattle area will get a few inches is my prediction.

Agree.

 

And I feel that the moisture from tomorrow's system will come in sooner than modeled.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Massive dumpage now! Wow!

You getting scared yet?

[kokaneekidz]

I would love to live in Index and be escorted by wsp to and fro

[MossMan]

You getting scared yet?

I’m scared it will stop someday

[MossMan]

Down here at work along I-5. Love it!!

[Winterdog]

Massive dumpage now! Wow!

You can see the moisture streaming down the Strait now heading for our area. Radar is filling in nicely just to our west.

Crap. It looks like it’s taking a left after exiting the straits heading north to your place! It did that last Febuary too as I recall

[IceKing]

Is it just me or did last winter feel less depressing

[TT-SEA]

Down here at work along I-5. Love it!!

 

 

This thing is starting early... you gonna be buried tonight!

[seattleweatherguy]

Awesome AFD write-up by Kovacik.

 

Love all the detail she goes into and looking at the sat/radar/surface analysis that she mentions.

This whole setup makes for a very tricky forecast this evening and

overnight, as areas north of the stationary boundary lie in cold,

modified arctic air. Recent MRMS radar imagery trends are showing

signs of increasing precip echoes near the coast and offshore

waters. Elsewhere, some convergent bands reside across the eastern

Strait, with pesky snow showers across King and Snohomish

counties.

 

Things are expected to change later this evening and overnight

tonight. Moisture will continue to increase along the boundary

and precip coverage will expand east across the Olympic Peninsula

and into Puget Sound. Strong WAA will increase in the vicinity of

the stationary boundary, accompanied by a LLJ of 40-50kts near

Puget Sound. This will aid in strong frontogensis along the

frontal boundary, where it will then begin to slowly carry north.

This is where a band(s) of moderate to heavy snowfall is (are)

likely to develop. Although confidence in the development of heavy

snow bands is moderate to high, pinpointing exactly where and

exactly when these bands will occur is extremely difficult. Using

hi-res model guidance as a forecasting tool thru this afternoon

suggests a strong band could develop from Kitsap County into

Northern King and southern Snohomish Counties. It might be slow to

lift north initially but should eventually lift northward thru

the night, with widespread lighter snow surrounding its vicinity

and perhaps several additional narrow bands of moderate to heavy

snow. It is important to keep in mind that this is the best

thinking given the current data available. It still remains very

possible this band could initially develop further north or south

of current forecast (further south would impact the Seattle

metro). Given the uncertainty in the placement of heavy snowfall,

have upgraded Winter Storm Watch to Winter Storm Warning. This

will largely become a nowcast as this develops further, with

radar, satellite, observations, and reports being the primary

tools for forecasting tonight.

 

Banding and pockets of heavy snowfall are possible outside of

Puget Sound as well. The northern Coast is likely to receive

several inches tonight, along with the Olympic mountains and areas

along the northern Peninsula along the Strait. As the band lifts

north, widespread snowfall is likely from the Strait to the Canada

border. Overall, heavy banding both across the Olympics and

the lowlands around Puget Sound will lead to very narrow areas of

impactful snow accumulation that could reach winter storm

criteria (in the 3-5 inches range, generally speaking), with areas

just outside of the band(s) possibly receiving much less or not

very much at all. With this event, expecting sharp snowfall

gradients, and more widespread accumulations of 1-3 inches

(locally lower amounts too). In areas that receive several inches

or more of snow overnight, travel impacts are highly likely into

Wednesday morning.

[Randyc321]

This is real time tracking now. No point looking at models in a dynamic situation a few hours away.

Maybe I am crazy, but I think this system look more moist and more South than modeled.

 

Every model shows it pointed right at the tip.  It isn't.  This thing is a monster.  It won't take much for some of that moisture to make its way around the southern edge of the Olympics.  It looks like its building tot hat now.  Plus Aberdeen was not supposed to get hit good with the latest HRRR runs and they're not doing too bad right now.  Look at the radar position in contrast to this image from the GFS showing the direction of the plume.  This is not what the radar looks like.  Definitely not slamming into Vancouver.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Radar is improving from the northwest.   From the trajectory, it looks like Tacoma might be in the dry slot from the Olympics.  This is going to be interesting!

[runninthruda206]

precip further inland and a little bit south of what latest models showed. Might end up being good for the sound, hopefully.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Awesome AFD write-up by Kovacik.

 

Love all the detail she goes into and looking at the sat/radar/surface analysis that she mentions.

Reminds me of the old day's discussions.

[SouthHillFrosty]

What are the odds this comes In a little south❄❄

[TT-SEA]

18Z ECMWF just coming out... here is total snow from 4 p.m. to 4 a.m.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm a long time lurker and follower and thought I would join.  I'm feeling the same as the others in the south end, esp from Maple-Valley and Covington!!   Wish we had more snow, but I can't complain.  It was very pretty this morning, even with just a light dusting of an inch or two.  I recall reading that Snowmizer went to his cabin last weekend for snow, and I'm doing the same on Friday.  Should be plenty of snow in Winthrop, WA.  I decided to build a cabin where we get true winter weather consistently   Thanks to all for making this forum so informative.

 

 

 

 

Beautiful pictures. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Finally the sun popped out. 28F

 

You live in a beautiful area. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If I ever relocate to the Seattle area I am going to get a place near Mossman. 

[TT-SEA]

Blue sky!

 

[weather_fan]

WSW is pretty much useless for SEA right?

[luvssnow_spokane]

And I am not talking about money.

 

Like Kayla saying snow lovers should move to Bozeman. Which also happens to be pretty expensive.

I am looking for property in ID I am hoping to move this spring or summer. I can hardly wait. I am going to love the 6% sales tax there also along with real winters. This is just to freaking annoying.