TacomaWaWx Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 I doubt it works out the way the 06Z run shows after 300 hours. Good chance there will not be something epic... and you get snow all the time at your location anyways. And you hate this climate and have a cabin in a very cold and snowy climate. There will probably be more sloppy snow in Port Orchard in March as well. I could see something like a February 2018 repeat happening next month...but not a February 2019 repeat. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 Breezy in SE PDX Mom’s digital thermometer reading 58 here!I will be trending North in a bit Federal Way 51*.28 precipitation since midnight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 At least the 12Z GFS shows it will rain almost all of next week... that is very much needed! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 Wow, it's been awhile since I've seen a 24 hour precip map like this for this area. The 2-5" stretches to the edge of Victoria proper. Already up to 0.5" on the day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 This actually made be feel better. Lol it would be like you going to Hawaii and it rained the entire time and it home it was 80 with a light east breeze with cold beers everywhere. Yeah... we don't plan trips to Hawaii in the summer. Seems like a pointless waste of thousands of dolllars. It would be more like going to Hawaii in February and missing out on a week of sunshine and temps in the 50s... that would suck but its would still be better in Hawaii. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 Wow, it's been awhile since I've seen a 24 hour precip map like this for this area. The 2-5" stretches to the edge of Victoria proper. Already up to 0.5" on the day. I’m going to enjoy this whole package of weather this weekend Impressive storm and glad the main moisture plume is North this time. watches and warnings lighting up the map! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 According to the seemingly very controversial Kuchera snowfall map, Sunday is mainly a North Sound/NW Interior special with some for Chris as well. We need to move the Olympic Mountains 50 miles south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 According to the seemingly very controversial Kuchera snowfall map, Sunday is mainly a North Sound/NW Interior special with some for Chris as well. Nice!! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 According to the seemingly very controversial Kuchera snowfall map, Sunday is mainly a North Sound special with some for Chris as well. Kuchera won't be too far off if there only light precip or if even the GFS shows temps above freezing. Often the GFS shows temps in the 20s even in an obviously marginal air mass. The GFS shows mid to upper 30s on Sunday... so even though that is probably still too cold it's warm enough that even the Kuchera maps shows very little snow for the Seattle area. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 Current marble with AR Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 Earlier this month we decided we would use the Olympics as an up-and-down gate. Raise the mountains when it's raining so we can make use of the rain shadow, lower the mountains when it's snowing so we don't get screwed. I am particularly fond of this idea. The mechanics and funding are still yet to be worked out though.This is actually fun to ponder! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 Kuchera actually shows less snow than the 10:1, which goes against every thought on here about that map. Shocker.It's not that simple. The biggest errors on the Kuchera come when the GFS incorrectly shows temps way below freezing with precip... when the reality is likely to be temps at or above freezing. The last event in January is good example of that for Seattle southward. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 Fun ferry ride to Whidbey island today ! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 Yes, modeled temperatures play an important role in modeled snowfall. Another shocker.And the Kuchera maps will often exaggerate snowfall even more in our area where most events are marginal and the GFS in particular runs unrealistically cold. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 Wind really picking up here now(PDX)seagulls be gliding Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 February 2018 at my old house. February 2018 for most lowland places near the sound it was just a couple of 1” accumulations over several days with highs in the mid 30s. I could see something similar to that happening at some point between now and mid March. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 Fun ferry ride to Whidbey island today ! No wind here at all yet...but I imagine that’ll change today. Could end up being the strongest wind event of the season. Has been barely anything in terms of wind events this season...strongest wind event was on New Years so far and that was only 45-50mph gusts. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 And the Kuchera maps will often exaggerate snowfall even more in our area where most events are marginal and the GFS in particular runs unrealistically cold.There are ECMWF Kuchera maps too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 PDX already up to 59. Only 5 hours of warming to go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 Kuchera actually shows less snow than the 10:1, which goes against every thought on here about that map. Shocker.Can you post the 10:1 map, same timeframe? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 February 2018 for most lowland places near the sound it was just a couple of 1” accumulations over several days with highs in the mid 30s. I could see something similar to that happening at some point between now and mid March.That was such a fun stretch, the big snow happened on the 18th, stayed below freezing for a week (might have popped a bit above freezing once or twice but DP’s stayed low) multiple snow events and solid snow cover into the first of March! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 Record high for SEA today is 61. Unlikely to get there but it’s going to be a warm day. Already up to 52. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 Pretty impressive: They'll end up getting more rain this month than I had almost all of last year 1 Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 That was such a fun stretch, the big snow happened on the 18th, stayed below freezing for a week (might have popped a bit above freezing once or twice but DP’s stayed low) multiple snow events and solid snow cover into the first of March! It ended up being pretty fun here too it was just slightly too warm for it to stick around in the daytime. We had a 1/2” on the 18th then on the night of the 21st we got 2 inches of snow...then a 1/2” during the overrunning event on the 23rd. Would be fun if it happened again I’d take it at this point. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 27" rain MTD. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 Got down to 50F and now up to 57F. Partly cloudy. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 Can you post the 10:1 map, same timeframe? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 C'mon Euro, show me something good! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 PDX down to 60. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 Starting to get breezy here after no wind at all just an hour ago...up to 0.51”...10.15” for January. Should be a stormy day on tap. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 Temp up to 54...temps rising with the increasing southerlies. Some stations around Graham, Yelm, JBLM and Olympia are in the upper 50s. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 Total snow through Sunday afternoon per 12Z ECMWF. Also shows highs in the low to mid 40s on Sunday. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 Total snow through Sunday afternoon per 12Z ECMWF. Also shows highs in the low to mid 40s on Sunday. That’s terrible! I’m about in the second shade of grey. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 Total snow through Sunday afternoon per 12Z ECMWF. Also shows highs in the low to mid 40s on Sunday. This is exactly how it will play out. Perfectly forecasted. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 And then there was silence. The EURO has spoken. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weather_fan Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 Total snow through Sunday afternoon per 12Z ECMWF. Also shows highs in the low to mid 40s on Sunday. Yeah this should be the right one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 This is exactly how it will play out. Perfectly forecasted.Sadly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 A little better when you include some more marginal temp snow with the warm front on Tuesday... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 Both models show snow here, that's all that matters this far out!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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