TT-SEA Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 12Z EPS... chilly. 5-10 day mean: 10-15 day mean: Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 Pretty decent south wind potential on Friday night as well on the Euro for places south of that low. Surprised Requiem didn't mention it! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 Currently 44 degrees and sunny. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 Pretty crazy how this kind of snuck up on us. We aren’t talking long long range either, just 4-5 days out. Jim!!!!It did not sneak up on Jim! Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 It did not sneak up on Jim!Every one is gonna get a talking to later today for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 It did not sneak up on Jim! Everyone failed to see the potential yet again I guess. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 Pretty decent south wind potential on Friday night as well on the Euro for places south of that low. Surprised Requiem didn't mention it! Didn't even strike me, the offshore flow was what I was looking out for. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 I am not excited yet. Still more then enough time for this thing to go belly up. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 I am not excited yet. Still more then enough time for this thing to go belly up.Plz let us know when you are. Thx. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 I think I forgot to mention we had about 1/4" of snow Saturday morning. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 12Z EPS... chilly. 5-10 day mean: 10-15 day mean: Alaska is warm. Huge disappointment for Justin/Andrew et al. They’d rather this pattern flip around to the default 2019/20 state of affairs. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 Alaska is warm. Huge disappointment for Justin/Andrew et al. They’d rather this pattern flip around to the default 2019/20 state of affairs. I understand how teleconnections work. We have had plenty of torchy winters here in the past decade which also torched in Alaska. Was at least nice to see some old school cold up there again. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 Alaska is warm. Huge disappointment for Justin/Andrew et al. They’d rather this pattern flip around to the default 2019/20 state of affairs. You and Alaska need to just make out already and get it over with. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 Alaska killed the stock market. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 This is setting up to be a beautiful March so far. Good amount of sun and cold nights. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 This is setting up to be a beautiful March so far. Good amount of sun and cold nights. Double-edged sword... appears another very dry March incoming. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 Upon further examination of precip maps I see that Northern California gets in on some good rainfall per the 12Z Euro. Heavy Sierra snowfall too. That is good to see. We are planning a trip down to Yosemite in June and are hoping that those waterfalls are RAGING.As it stands now the waterfalls will be Dry by June. We are currently having the direst winter ever recorded here in South Lake Tahoe with only 5.9" this winter. We might get one storm next weekend that could drop a foot of snow and then else nothing is being shown. There is currently 0 snow below 7k in the Sierra. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 Wowzers. 18z is cold. My oh my. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 lmao what even is the 18z... Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 Wowzers. 18z is cold. My oh my. High in the teens? Precip moves out much quicker on this run. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 High in the teens? Precip moves out much quicker on this run. It shows significant snow Saturday morning from about Vancouver, WA to Albany, OR. Then another significant band of snow sets up from about Roseburg to Eugene Saturday night. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 18z is horrible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 Mark is jumping on board... Only going with a high of 44 on Saturday at PDX. And then this... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Jones Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 Jim wished this thing into existence. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 Jim wished this thing into existence. Still not getting my hopes up. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 I am not excited yet. Still more then enough time for this thing to go belly up.Obviously it’s going to get way watered down from the coldest runs right now, but I think the general pattern is locked in to a degree. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 Conflicting reports! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 From the Portland AFD The challenge with the long term forecast is in regards to themovement of this system. Ensembles are showing a variety of differentpatterns with the GFS and ECMWF keeping the low offshore, while otherensemble runs depict the low moving inland. In addition, the GFS isnotably cooler than other solutions which would lower slow levelseven further near the valley floor. With that being said, if theECMWF (low staying offshore) rings true, offshore flow will filtercool air into the valley causing temps at all levels to decrease ator below freezing.Combining cooling temps with present moisture and moderate PoPs,there is a chance for snow through the area. There is a strong chanceand higher confidence for snow along higher terrain like theCascades and Coastal Range. Elsewhere, numerical models aresuggesting a chance for snow through the Willamette Valley. While notthe most seasonable forecast, snow to the valley floor is not out ofthe question. With that being said, keeping as a slight chance of ageneral rain/snow mix due to the high variability and low confidence.Will continue to monitor through the week as the weekend nears.-Muessle Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 I'm also not getting my hopes up. Nice that this little cold snap is within 150 hours at this point, but still. I'll look forward to some brisk easterlies though-- at least there's no strong low to mess things up yet. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 Conflicting reports! Conflicting expectations! As usual. A period of cold weather is basically inevitable. Lowland snow is far from a sure thing for most places. If sun and cold is your thing... then its all good. If you demand accumulating snow as well then you could be disappointed. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 Conflicting expectations! As usual. A period of cold weather is basically inevitable. Lowland snow is far from a sure thing for most places. If sun and cold is your thing... then its all good. If you demand accumulating snow as well then you could be disappointed. For people such as you and I, it is going to come down to available precip whether or not it snows. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 How can Debbie also be the voice of reason?I am confused. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 Conflicting expectations! As usual. A period of cold weather is basically inevitable. Lowland snow is far from a sure thing for most places. If sun and cold is your thing... then its all good. If you demand accumulating snow as well then you could be disappointed.I would like at least 4” of nice non sloppy snow, or give me dry and warm this time of the year. I would be okay with dry and cold over slop snow if those are my only options however. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 For people such as you and I, it is going to come down to available precip whether or not it snows.It appears there will be plenty of precip in my area on Friday and the ECMWF says it will be 40-degree rain. Then it's in the upper 40s and dry on Saturday. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 How can Debbie also be the voice of reason?I am confused.#frostisforfools Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 It appears there will be plenty of precip in my area on Friday and the ECMWF says it will be 40-degree rain. Then it's in the upper 40s and dry on Saturday. Nevermind. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 #frostisforfoolsProblem with me all of a sudden? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 Glad everyone has their expectations in check. Phil has said that it is not possible to see arctic air south of the border given the state of the PV. Model backpedaling should commence soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 Problem with me all of a sudden?No. Just amused by the dynamics here sometimes. Oh and the 18z is terrible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 Operational GFS bottoms out at -16C at PDX. Ensemble mean at -10.4C. For the record, I know PDX will not see -16C 850 mb temps this weekend, but -8 or -9C is possible! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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