March 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS... chilly.

 

5-10 day mean:

 

 

 

10-15 day mean:

 

[BLI snowman]

Pretty decent south wind potential on Friday night as well on the Euro for places south of that low. 

 

Surprised Requiem didn't mention it!

[MossMan]

Currently 44 degrees and sunny.

[Front Ranger]

Pretty crazy how this kind of snuck up on us. We aren’t talking long long range either, just 4-5 days out.

 

Jim!!!!

It did not sneak up on Jim!

[GHweatherChris]

It did not sneak up on Jim!

Every one is gonna get a talking to later today for sure.

[Requiem]

It did not sneak up on Jim!

 

Everyone failed to see the potential yet again I guess.

[Requiem]

Pretty decent south wind potential on Friday night as well on the Euro for places south of that low. 

 

Surprised Requiem didn't mention it!

 

Didn't even strike me, the offshore flow was what I was looking out for.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I am not excited yet. Still more then enough time for this thing to go belly up.

[Deweydog]

I am not excited yet. Still more then enough time for this thing to go belly up.

Plz let us know when you are. Thx.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think I forgot to mention we had about 1/4" of snow Saturday morning. 

[Phil]

12Z EPS... chilly.

 

5-10 day mean:

 

 

 

10-15 day mean:

 

Alaska is warm.

 

Huge disappointment for Justin/Andrew et al. They’d rather this pattern flip around to the default 2019/20 state of affairs.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Alaska is warm.

 

Huge disappointment for Justin/Andrew et al. They’d rather this pattern flip around to the default 2019/20 state of affairs.

 

I understand how teleconnections work. We have had plenty of torchy winters here in the past decade which also torched in Alaska. Was at least nice to see some old school cold up there again. 

[BLI snowman]

Alaska is warm.

 

Huge disappointment for Justin/Andrew et al. They’d rather this pattern flip around to the default 2019/20 state of affairs.

 

You and Alaska need to just make out already and get it over with.

[Deweydog]

Alaska killed the stock market.

[FroYoBro]

This is setting up to be a beautiful March so far. Good amount of sun and cold nights.

[TT-SEA]

This is setting up to be a beautiful March so far. Good amount of sun and cold nights.

 

Double-edged sword... appears another very dry March incoming.

 

[AlTahoe]

Upon further examination of precip maps I see that Northern California gets in on some good rainfall per the 12Z Euro. Heavy Sierra snowfall too. That is good to see.

 

We are planning a trip down to Yosemite in June and are hoping that those waterfalls are RAGING.

As it stands now the waterfalls will be Dry by June. We are currently having the direst winter ever recorded here in South Lake Tahoe with only 5.9" this winter. We might get one storm next weekend that could drop a foot of snow and then else nothing is being shown. There is currently 0 snow below 7k in the Sierra. 

[ShawniganLake]

Wowzers. 18z is cold. My oh my.

[Requiem]

lmao what even is the 18z...

[TT-SEA]

Wowzers. 18z is cold. My oh my.

 

High in the teens?

 

Precip moves out much quicker on this run.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

High in the teens?

 

Precip moves out much quicker on this run.

 

It shows significant snow Saturday morning from about Vancouver, WA to Albany, OR.

 

Then another significant band of snow sets up from about Roseburg to Eugene Saturday night. 

[GHweatherChris]

18z is horrible.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mark is jumping on board... Only going with a high of 44 on Saturday at PDX. 

 

And then this...

 

[James Jones]

Jim wished this thing into existence. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Jim wished this thing into existence. 

 

Still not getting my hopes up. 

[Jesse]

I am not excited yet. Still more then enough time for this thing to go belly up.

Obviously it’s going to get way watered down from the coldest runs right now, but I think the general pattern is locked in to a degree.

[MossMan]

Conflicting reports!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

From the Portland AFD

 

The challenge with the long term forecast is in regards to the
movement of this system. Ensembles are showing a variety of different
patterns with the GFS and ECMWF keeping the low offshore, while other
ensemble runs depict the low moving inland. In addition, the GFS is
notably cooler than other solutions which would lower slow levels
even further near the valley floor. With that being said, if the
ECMWF (low staying offshore) rings true, offshore flow will filter
cool air into the valley causing temps at all levels to decrease at
or below freezing.

Combining cooling temps with present moisture and moderate PoPs,
there is a chance for snow through the area. There is a strong chance
and higher confidence for snow along higher terrain like the
Cascades and Coastal Range. Elsewhere, numerical models are
suggesting a chance for snow through the Willamette Valley. While not
the most seasonable forecast, snow to the valley floor is not out of
the question. With that being said, keeping as a slight chance of a
general rain/snow mix due to the high variability and low confidence.
Will continue to monitor through the week as the weekend nears.
-Muessle 

[Requiem]

I'm also not getting my hopes up. Nice that this little cold snap is within 150 hours at this point, but still. I'll look forward to some brisk easterlies though-- at least there's no strong low to mess things up yet.

[TT-SEA]

Conflicting reports!

 

Conflicting expectations!   

 

As usual.

 

A period of cold weather is basically inevitable.   Lowland snow is far from a sure thing for most places.   If sun and cold is your thing... then its all good.   If you demand accumulating snow as well then you could be disappointed.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Conflicting expectations!   

 

As usual.

 

A period of cold weather is basically inevitable.   Lowland snow is far from a sure thing for most places.   If sun and cold is your thing... then its all good.   If you demand accumulating snow as well then you could be disappointed.   

 

For people such as you and I, it is going to come down to available precip whether or not it snows. 

[GHweatherChris]

How can Debbie also be the voice of reason?

I am confused.

[MossMan]

Conflicting expectations!

 

As usual.

 

A period of cold weather is basically inevitable. Lowland snow is far from a sure thing for most places. If sun and cold is your thing... then its all good. If you demand accumulating snow as well then you could be disappointed.

I would like at least 4” of nice non sloppy snow, or give me dry and warm this time of the year. I would be okay with dry and cold over slop snow if those are my only options however.

[TT-SEA]

For people such as you and I, it is going to come down to available precip whether or not it snows.

It appears there will be plenty of precip in my area on Friday and the ECMWF says it will be 40-degree rain. Then it's in the upper 40s and dry on Saturday.

[Jesse]

How can Debbie also be the voice of reason?

I am confused.

#frostisforfools

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It appears there will be plenty of precip in my area on Friday and the ECMWF says it will be 40-degree rain. Then it's in the upper 40s and dry on Saturday.

 

Nevermind. 

[GHweatherChris]

#frostisforfools

Problem with me all of a sudden?

[ShawniganLake]

Glad everyone has their expectations in check. Phil has said that it is not possible to see arctic air south of the border given the state of the PV. Model backpedaling should commence soon.

[Jesse]

Problem with me all of a sudden?

No. Just amused by the dynamics here sometimes.

 

Oh and the 18z is terrible.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Operational GFS bottoms out at -16C at PDX. Ensemble mean at -10.4C. 

 

For the record, I know PDX will not see -16C 850 mb temps this weekend, but -8 or -9C is possible!