umadbro Posted March 13, 2020 Report Share Posted March 13, 2020 Only inconsistencies between the models is the timing of the precip. 18z NAM 3km is ideal 1 Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted March 13, 2020 Report Share Posted March 13, 2020 An impressive 38/34 spread today here. Haven’t seen a sub 40 high temp this late in the year...we had a 38 degree high temp last March too but that was on 3/8. Also picked up 0.29” today and now we’re at 1.07” for March. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 Sun breaks!!! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 Euro has been flip flopping a lot. 00z had an inch, 12z had 3-5 inches and now back down to small amounts. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 Euro has been flip flopping a lot. 00z had an inch, 12z had 3-5 inches and now back down to small amounts.That's also true. Honestly I'm expecting nothing more than non sticking flakes at home in Ridgefield. But I'll be window licking tonight anyway. 3 Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 Euro has been flip flopping a lot. 00z had an inch, 12z had 3-5 inches and now back down to small amounts. 1 degree temperature difference would make a big difference in snow totals in this situation... probably why its been inconsistent with that particularly parameter (total snow). Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 Euro has been flip flopping a lot. 00z had an inch, 12z had 3-5 inches and now back down to small amounts. 18z has also not been in tune with standard EURO runs as well, which is weird. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 High of only 42 at PDX today. Their coldest day this late in the season since the ridiculously late high of 39 on 3/21/12. Also just one degree off the record MIN/MAX for the date, set in 1955. High of only 40 here, last night at midnight then briefly again this afternoon. Down to 38 currently with a light East breeze. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 1 degree temperature difference would make a big difference in snow totals in this situation... probably why its been inconsistent with that particularly parameter (total snow). It's actually more about the precip. Models keep hinting that the NE side of this low will have some kind of enhancement/deformation with good precip rates overnight into the morning. The Euro can't seem to make up its mind on this. The GFS has also gone back and forth between giving 0.3 to 1.0 in of precip but has generally been on the wetter side. 00z last night 12z today 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 High of only 42 at PDX today. Their coldest day this late in the season since the ridiculously late high of 39 on 3/21/12. Also just one degree off the record MIN/MAX for the date, set in 1955.High of only 40 here, last night at midnight then briefly again this afternoon. Down to 38 currently with a light East breeze. Nws SEA forecast temps were low to mid 40s but most places actually stayed in the mid to upper 30s today. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 It's actually more about the precip. Models keep hinting that the NE side of this low will have some kind of enhancement/deformation with good precip rates overnight into the morning. The Euro can't seem to make up its mind on this. The GFS has also gone back and forth between giving 0.3 to 1.0 in of precip but has generally been on the wetter side. 00z last night 12z todayYou know what, most models show an inch or more. I’m confident I’ll see at least a dusting. 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 It's actually more about the precip. Models keep hinting that the NE side of this low will have some kind of enhancement/deformation with good precip rates overnight into the morning. The Euro can't seem to make up its mind on this. The GFS has also gone back and forth between giving 0.3 to 1.0 in of precip but has generally been on the wetter side. 00z last night Right, temperatures are less of an issue IMO since the timing of whatever band forms looks to coincide with the coldest part of the day. 31-32 should be pretty doable under any steady precip. It's the almost convective elements to this that are going to be a challenge for the models to pick up and the placement of that band is going to waffle. Also on that note, always a bit more encouraging to see temps stay on the coolish side of projections today. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 You know what, most models show an inch or more. I’m confident I’ll see at least a dusting.I think an inch as a worst case for you is probably a good bet. The setup tonight is clearly more dynamic than normal and has the potential for fairly juicy amounts of precip if things line up well. It actually does have a 1/10/17 vibe in that regard. Fingers crossed for this thing overdelivering. If all else fails, it will be snow in the air for the lowest elevations and that is still way better than our usual weather. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 High of only 42 at PDX today. Their coldest day this late in the season since the ridiculously late high of 39 on 3/21/12. Also just one degree off the record MIN/MAX for the date, set in 1955. High of only 40 here, last night at midnight then briefly again this afternoon. Down to 38 currently with a light East breeze. That was also from a somewhat similar setup that dropped 1-2" of snow across the metro area on the morning of the 14th. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 Right, temperatures are less of an issue IMO since the timing of whatever band forms looks to coincide with the coldest part of the day. 31-32 should be pretty doable under any steady precip. It's the almost convective elements to this that are going to be a challenge for the models to pick up and the placement of that band is going to waffle. Also on that note, always a bit more encouraging to see temps stay on the coolish side of projections today. Makes me wonder if the mesoscale models would have a better handle for things like that. I remember the RGEM and 3km NAM did much better for the 1/10/17 event than the GFS/Euro but wasn't ever too sure if that was just a wrong clock being right twice a day sort of deal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 High of only 42 at PDX today. Their coldest day this late in the season since the ridiculously late high of 39 on 3/21/12. Also just one degree off the record MIN/MAX for the date, set in 1955. High of only 40 here, last night at midnight then briefly again this afternoon. Down to 38 currently with a light East breeze.They might have not hit their high yet. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 Makes me wonder if the mesoscale models would have a better handle for things like that. I remember the RGEM and 3km NAM did much better for the 1/10/17 event than the GFS/Euro but wasn't ever too sure if that was just a wrong clock being right twice a day sort of deal. I wouldn't be surprised if they have a better handle on it now that we're within 24 hours. HRRR generally struggles with precip type but also looks pretty favorable for some steady stuff from 3am-9am. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 Still sitting around 40F in The Dalles. GFS claims the temp there will plummet into the low 20s by 3 or 4 AM. Most other models think it will be around 28-32F at that same time there. Silly FV3. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 Currently dribbles and 36 degrees. Had a high of 39. .03” on the day, 3.00” on the month, and 21.20” on the year. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 38/28 with 1.5" of snow and 0.21" of precip so far today. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 I had a high below 40 and sticking snow this morning. Pretty hard to complain about that this late in the season. The WRF shows some snow here later tonight also. No reason to believe the ECMWF over the WRF after the ECMWF horrible perfomance last night. It showed less than 0.10" of water here and we ended up with 0.30". Stats for so far today … 39 / 34 with 0.2" of snow. Too bad SEA was so "warm" at midnight. Their daytime high was easily record low max. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 I had a high below 40 and sticking snow this morning. Pretty hard to complain about that this late in the season. The WRF shows some snow here later tonight also. No reason to believe the ECMWF over the WRF after the ECMWF horrible perfomance last night. It showed less than 0.10" of water here and we ended up with 0.30". Stats for so far today … 39 / 34 with 0.2" of snow. Too bad SEA was so "warm" at midnight. Their daytime high was easily record low max.Jim! It is good to see you. Yeah the Euro has been less than consistent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 I had a high below 40 and sticking snow this morning. Pretty hard to complain about that this late in the season. The WRF shows some snow here later tonight also. No reason to believe the ECMWF over the WRF after the ECMWF horrible perfomance last night. It showed less than 0.10" of water here and we ended up with 0.30". Stats for so far today … 39 / 34 with 0.2" of snow. Too bad SEA was so "warm" at midnight. Their daytime high was easily record low max. Euro underestimating precip would be big for us here. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 Euro underestimating precip would be big for us here. It has had problems this winter during the cold snaps. It has both shot way too high and way too low on various events. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 Pretty wild swing in Central Oregon. Highs well into the 50s now snowing. 41/33 so far today at SLE. Just a bit above the record min/max of 39 from 1906, good for a -10 departure. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 New 00z 3km NAM is much drier tonight. Regular 12km is much wetter. Doesn't sound like the models are really gonna come to a clear consensus on precip. Will just have to wait and see, only a few more hours anyway. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 New 00z 3km NAM is much drier tonight. Regular 12km is much wetter. Doesn't sound like the models are really gonna come to a clear consensus on precip. Will just have to wait and see, only a few more hours anyway. Still shows 4-6" here. Seems reasonable. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 Here we go !!!! My forecast is 2-39" of Snow! No rules on a Friday night like this! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 Mark is going with a 0 to 2 inches forecast. The model snow forecast numbers he posts are pretty amusing. Seems he divides the model output by some constant factor to adjust for reality. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 Looks like light offshore flow is about to start up in the Portland area. Sitting at 39 with a dp of 35. Should at least see some wet snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 -14 departure on the high today for PDX Still 40 in The Dalles. 37 at Tri-Cities airport Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 25 with snow at Spokane. Dang. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 Currently 37F with snow in the air here in Victoria. The radar looks promising but the dry winds might kill any hopes for accumulation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 Mark is going with a 0 to 2 inches forecast. The model snow forecast numbers he posts are pretty amusing. Seems he divides the model output by some constant factor to adjust for reality. And he’s usually right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 My moisture is 6 miles west, D****T. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 10 minutes ago... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Portland OR809 PM PDT Fri Mar 13 2020ORZ006-015-WAZ039-045-141115-/O.EXB.KPQR.WW.Y.0018.200314T1000Z-200314T1900Z/Greater Portland Metro Area-Western Columbia River Gorge-Greater Vancouver Area-Including the cities of Hillsboro, Portland, Wilsonville,Oregon City, Gresham, Troutdale, Corbett, Rooster Rock,Multnomah Falls, Cascade Locks, Vancouver, Battle Ground,Ridgefield, Washougal, Yacolt, Amboy, North Bonneville,and Stevenson809 PM PDT Fri Mar 13 2020...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO NOON PDTSATURDAY...* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of up to twoinches.* WHERE...In Washington, Greater Vancouver Area and WesternColumbia River Gorge. In Oregon, Greater Portland Metro Areaand Western Columbia River Gorge.* WHEN...From 3 AM to noon PDT Saturday.* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Expect the heaviest accumulations atelevations above 500 feet, with lighter accumulations on thevalley floor.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...Slow down and use caution while traveling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 And he’s usually right. Well yeah, rooting against snow means you always have climo on your side around here. He has a reputation to protect because he isn't a random poster on a forum.I'm not saying I'd do it any different if I were in his shoes. Just pointing out the numbers he posted are entirely made up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 10 minutes ago... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Portland OR809 PM PDT Fri Mar 13 2020 ORZ006-015-WAZ039-045-141115-/O.EXB.KPQR.WW.Y.0018.200314T1000Z-200314T1900Z/Greater Portland Metro Area-Western Columbia River Gorge-Greater Vancouver Area-Including the cities of Hillsboro, Portland, Wilsonville,Oregon City, Gresham, Troutdale, Corbett, Rooster Rock,Multnomah Falls, Cascade Locks, Vancouver, Battle Ground,Ridgefield, Washougal, Yacolt, Amboy, North Bonneville,and Stevenson809 PM PDT Fri Mar 13 2020 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO NOON PDTSATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of up to twoinches. * WHERE...In Washington, Greater Vancouver Area and WesternColumbia River Gorge. In Oregon, Greater Portland Metro Areaand Western Columbia River Gorge. * WHEN...From 3 AM to noon PDT Saturday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Expect the heaviest accumulations atelevations above 500 feet, with lighter accumulations on thevalley floor. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. Its over. We were so close. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 36 and light snow currently here. Just tiny flakes. Hopefully we luck out and see some more snow tonight. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted March 14, 2020 Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 No significant changes on the 00z GFS. It still thinks the temps will plummet sometime after 11 PM. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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