September 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Clinton]

Still many on here needing rain bad.  The drought in Iowa really intensified quick and myself and eastern Nebraska have been in drought for a year.  The deep south is in really bad shape as well. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Looks like I got just under 3.0” last evening and overnight. The western part of my county got over 7.0”. Many reports over 5.0”. Will obviously stop the harvest for awhile. 

[Stormy]

Some of the models look a little wetter again for eastern Iowa this weekend after a day or two of backing off. Still not looking as good as it had earlier this week though. Maybe the system currently to the sw. can bring spotty showers today, but good showers are passing just east of Iowa as usual. 

[Clinton]

13 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Looks like I got just under 3.0” last evening and overnight. The western part of my county got over 7.0”. Many reports over 5.0”. Will obviously stop the harvest for awhile. 

Dang buddy share would ya lol.  What a summer it's been for you.

[Clinton]

It's the NAM but it's a drought relief dream.

[Hawkeye]

22 minutes ago, Stormy said:

Some of the models look a little wetter again for eastern Iowa this weekend after a day or two of backing off. Still not looking as good as it had earlier this week though. Maybe the system currently to the sw. can bring spotty showers today, but good showers are passing just east of Iowa as usual. 

Models mostly show the southwest Iowa disturbance lifting northeast and dumping heavy rain north of our area.

[OKwx2k4]

Really glad for the nice soaking rainfall this morning. 

Looking ahead, looks like we literally hold the same temps for 8-10 days straight and then a good crash is imminent. Going from 80/60 to 70/45 is going to be a good drop off but that crosses over into next month's discussion at this point. 

Very glad to see our friends up north picking up much needed rainfall. 

Texas should see more precip later in the season as we near late-autumn.

[chescowxman]

A pretty big early season noreaster is on the way that will impact the County this weekend. Look for rain to arrive shortly after midnight and fall heavy at times tomorrow through Sunday morning. It should become more showery in nature by Sunday into Monday before ending.

Of note tomorrow will likely see many of the higher spots across the area fail to escape the 50's for high temperatures....so a mighty chiller early fall day which arrives at 2:50am overnight tonight.

Records for today: High 99 (1895) / Low 31 (1904) / Rain 1.81" (1975)

[Niko]

Loos like the EC this upcoming weekend will get soaked from this TS. Its going to be one soggy, windy, chilly, raw, Autumn-like weekend for them. Highs in spots will remain in the upper 50's and lows pretty much remaining steady. 

 

Here in SMI, it is looking gorgeous. No rainfall is in sight. Temps mainly in the 70s. 

[Bryan1117]

2 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

Models mostly show the southwest Iowa disturbance lifting northeast and dumping heavy rain north of our area.

Yeah it’s starting to look iffy here in Eastern Nebraska too for the weekend. Picked up around a quarter of an inch of rain this morning… however we might not get much more if things keep pushing north with this system. Long live the drought!

[OttumwaSnomow]

5 hours ago, Clinton said:

It's the NAM but it's a drought relief dream.

How is .5 and   with 1.40 inches  in  42 days any relief  here?  Almost every rain in 2023 have been spotty.   Isu did a study that iowas largest  rain statewide  was in feb!!!!  Feb is typically  one of driest month. These patterns  all stink and cant be sugar coated. Strips and stripes of moderate rains, big deal.  My area living in D3 severe  drought.   Same most of growing  seasons since 2012.

[BDT]

3 hours ago, Bryan1117 said:

Yeah it’s starting to look iffy here in Eastern Nebraska too for the weekend. Picked up around a quarter of an inch of rain this morning… however we might not get much more if things keep pushing north with this system. Long live the drought!

Tonights storms go north. Tomorrow is east. We are doomed either way. Nice and dry next week too ....blah

[Iceresistance]

Uhhhh O_O

Day 2 Enhanced now in place for @Black Hole and @OKwx2k4
Even though I do recommend Sunday to be enhanced based on these models, note for @Andie

[Black Hole]

Multiple rounds of storms early this morning left my just shy of an inch. My water year is over 42" now. Currently sunny and in the mid 70s. A perfect fall day if you ask me. 

[Black Hole]

We've got the enhanced for tomorrow evening from the SPC and a moderate risk of excessive rain from WPC. Should be a pretty interesting day. Good setup with plenty of shear, strong flow aloft, high instability, and forcing along a boundary. 

I expect supercells to form in the late afternoon or early evening in north-central OK into southeast KS, progressing east. Not everybody will get hit, but some will almost certainly see large hail and damaging winds. Low level wind profile supports a tornado risk too.

Of course...I won't be here so it'll probably go wild lol I'm going down to the gulf coast for a few days.

[westMJim]

The sun is out but getting a good shower. The temperature was 80 but now has dropped to 72.

[Clinton]

I wish the global models were a little more convincing for western Missouri for tomorrow night.  The HRRR and NAM still look good.  I expect a solid wall of water to move through, I hope everyone wanting rain gets some.

[Bryan1117]

2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I wish the global models were a little more convincing for western Missouri for tomorrow night.  The HRRR and NAM still look good.  I expect a solid wall of water to move through, I hope everyone wanting rain gets some.

Just sick and tired of everything splitting around here… what’s with these garbage weather patterns for Eastern Nebraska the last two years?

Not excited for Winter at all… looks like cold and no snow coming right up again.

[Clinton]

KC rainfall today was needed.  Only a trace today for mby.

 

NWS Kansas City

 

@NWSKansasCity

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Kansas City has picked up 0.47" of precipitation today...that is more than the last 38 days combined (0.30")

[Clinton]

17 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

Just sick and tired of everything splitting around here… what’s with these garbage weather patterns for Eastern Nebraska the last two years?

Not excited for Winter at all… looks like cold and no snow coming right up again.

It's been that way here as I can't escape the D3.  Tomorrow night will be the last chance for at least the next 7 days.  Omega block forecasted to set up next week is not really our friend ATM. 

[Andie]

6 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

Day 2 Enhanced now in place for @Black Hole and @OKwx2k4
Even though I do recommend Sunday to be enhanced based on these models, note for @Andie

I won’t hold my breath.   
We need a soaker.  

[Hawkeye]

The strong storms and heavy rain at the south end of the Iowa disturbance were not able to build southward enough to hit Cedar Rapids, so this morning's 5-minute downpour is all we get today.  I'm just hoping for a half inch tomorrow night.

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was a summer like 82/58. Officially there was no rain fall but here in MBY I had a short but heavy shower with the sun out. The shower popped up right over head and dropped 0.05” of rain fall. At the airport there were 5 CDD’s yesterday and the highest wind speed was 19 MPH out of the S. The sun was out 76% of the possible time. For today the average H/L is now down to 71/50 the record high of 96 was set in the heat wave of 2017. The record low was a frosty 28 set in 1974. The record rain fall amount is 2.13” in 2000. Last year the H/L was 64/38.

[Clinton]

The SPC has put out an enhanced risk of severe weather for my area south into Oklahoma.

 MISSOURI VALLEY INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with large to very large hail, wind damage, and tornadoes, will be possible today across eastern parts of the Great Plains, and Mississippi Valley. A couple of tornadoes are also possible in parts of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Eastern Great Plains/Mississippi Valley... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low over northern WY, advancing east toward the Black Hills, in line with latest model guidance. 60kt 500mb speed max is forecast to translate across NE to near FSD by 18z, then into northern MN during the overnight hours. This evolution will encourage a surface low to lift into northeast NE by 18z, with some deepening expected during the latter half of the period as the low occludes over southeastern ND by 24/12z. A north-south cluster of strong convection has evolved ahead of the upper trough over the High Plains from western NE into southwestern SD. This activity may continue through sunrise as it propagates east, aided by large-scale ascent ahead of the trough. Additionally, latest model guidance suggests LLJ will strengthen ahead of this activity into western IA by mid day such that renewed development is likely. NAM aggressively strengthens the LLJ in excess of 60kt over south-central MN by late afternoon. Wind profiles and low-level shear will strengthen ahead of the deepening surface low. This supports the potential for supercells across the upper MS Valley, especially near/south of the northward-advancing warm front. Forecast soundings exhibit strong shear with substantial sfc-3km SRH, though lapse rates will remain weak. Aside from the threat for damaging winds with this pre-frontal activity, it appears environmental conditions also support a tornado risk. In addition to supercell threat, large-scale forcing may encourage some clustering and potential line segments. Severe risk will spread into central MN by late evening as the low occludes over the upper Red River (of the North) Valley. Farther south, high-level difluent flow will be noted across the lower MO Valley into eastern OK. 500mb flow is expected to strengthen south of I-70 to near the TX/OK Red River as weak height falls will be noted at these lower latitudes. Surface front will advance into eastern KS, arcing across central OK into northwest TX by late afternoon. Strong boundary-layer heating will be noted ahead of this wind shift, with surface temperatures forecast to rise into the mid 90s to near 100F from portions of western OK into northwest TX. As a result, convective temperatures will be breached as CINH is reduced. Scattered thunderstorms should readily develop along the wind shift, initially over eastern KS, then southwest along the boundary at least into central OK. Forecast soundings exhibit seasonally steep lapse rates with high PW values (approaching 2 inches). Wind profiles strongly favor organized convection and initial activity should be supercellular in nature. With time, one or more MCSs may ultimately evolve over the ENH Risk area, with southward propagation expected across eastern OK/western AR late in the period. Hail should be common with the initial activity, some of it likely exceeding 2 inches in diameter. While a few tornadoes may be noted with the supercells, storm mode may ultimately lead to a complex that could produce damaging winds as convection spreads southeast during the overnight hours.

[Clinton]

Local view from EAX. Really hope a large complex of rain can roll through.  A little worried about a broken line.

[Tom]

Welcome to the 1st day of Astronomical Fall!  On this day, or thereabouts, the sun sets over the Arctic and we begin the quick transition to Winter up north, while those of us who live in the mid latitude enjoy the volatility of weather as the seasons begin to really change.  Let it snow, Let it snow, Let it snow....

 

As I take a gander way up in the Arctic regions, this 500mb map is starting to look very interesting as the Ural Blocking will be a key component this Autumn and Winter.  The massive Hudson Bay ridge that has slowed down the systems this week/weekend may also be another player in the new pattern.  There are many fascinating implications that lie ahead as we finish off SEP and head into OCT.

 

According to the CFSv2 weeklies, if the Ural Blocking continues as suggested, look out below b/c this will weaken the Polar Vortex and increase the probability of a colder winter seas for the U.S.  In fact, by the middle of OCT, we could very well see a definitive sign of this pattern as a Cross Polar Flow is showing up.

 

 

This is usually the 1st day (10/6) of when the new LRC pattern sets up for the mid latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere....nice blocking setting up over Canada/Greenland (-NAO/+PNA)...

 

 

 

 

Looks quite active for the majority of our SUB....

[Clinton]

Here is the CPCs outlook for October. 

 

[Clinton]

3 minutes ago, Tom said:

Welcome to the 1st day of Astronomical Fall!  On this day, or thereabouts, the sun sets over the Arctic and we begin the quick transition to Winter up north, while those of us who live in the mid latitude enjoy the volatility of weather as the seasons begin to really change.  Let it snow, Let it snow, Let it snow....

 

As I take a gander way up in the Arctic regions, this 500mb map is starting to look very interesting as the Ural Blocking will be a key component this Autumn and Winter.  The massive Hudson Bay ridge that has slowed down the systems this week/weekend may also be another player in the new pattern.  There are many fascinating implications that lie ahead as we finish off SEP and head into OCT.

 

According to the CFSv2 weeklies, if the Ural Blocking continues as suggested, look out below b/c this will weaken the Polar Vortex and increase the probability of a colder winter seas for the U.S.  In fact, by the middle of OCT, we could very well see a definitive sign of this pattern as a Cross Polar Flow is showing up.

 

 

This is usually the 1st day (10/6) of when the new LRC pattern sets up for the mid latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere....nice blocking setting up over Canada/Greenland (-NAO/+PNA)...

 

 

 

 

Looks quite active for the majority of our SUB....

So looking forward to something new and can't deny some of the early indicators are very positive.  I love seeing the cold indicators towards the end of October.  Gary routinely says the last week of Oct and the first week of November are the most important in determining what kinda winter lies ahead.

[Tom]

When I saw this Canadian fire map, it struck me again how nature is showing signs and early predictors of where warm anomalies (aka, blocking) could very well set up.  That NW NAMER region that is en fuego could be an indication of where a blocking pattern develops and cycles over and over.

 

[Iceresistance]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

Here is the CPCs outlook for October. 

 

That screams severe weather chances for my area

[Iceresistance]

Love the new Fall theme

[Hawkeye]

Models have mostly abandoned my area today, lifting most rain into northern Iowa and Minnesota.  This weekend has long been advertised to be a big rain event, so it could end up being massive bust.  That would be nothing new because the entire warm season has been a massive bust.

[Stormy]

I picked up only 0.18" yesterday a.m. while a few miles se. got half inch. Crazy how it's been raining more a few miles se. pretty much all summer. 

[OKwx2k4]

20 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

Uhhhh O_O

Day 2 Enhanced now in place for @Black Hole and @OKwx2k4
Even though I do recommend Sunday to be enhanced based on these models, note for @Andie

Going to be a bit of a sketchy night out there folks. The 2-3 inches of rain isn't a need. Not in the fashion we're going to receive it at least. Lol.

However, old school lore says thunder in Autumn is good for snow. Starting to see a pattern I like developing. 

[Andie]

Only advisory we have is for heat today. High of 97*

50% chance of rain tomorrow. High 97*

Monday 87*

 

 

[hawkstwelve]

Going to join the chorus and say it's not looking promising for any meaningful rainfall here, after many days showing good potential in the lead up. The main band moved through with a steady rain but only added up to 0.07 inches with no thunderstorms embedded outside of the Sioux City area. I'm worried we will be dry-slotted for the remainder of the day but the HRRR does show some more showers and thunderstorms popping up this afternoon. Some pretty good-sized sun breaks right now with lots of blue sky so hopefully that'll aid in destabilizing the atmosphere. 

Ultimately, I'm crossing my fingers for some good thunderstorms but don't really have the best feeling. 

[Bryan1117]

3 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

Models have mostly abandoned my area today, lifting most rain into northern Iowa and Minnesota.  This weekend has long been advertised to be a big rain event, so it could end up being massive bust.  That would be nothing new because the entire warm season has been a massive bust.

Feeling your pain Hawkeye, earlier this week it looked like Eastern Nebraska would see a widespread 2 to 3" rainfall event... however now it looks like just under a quarter inch of rain will be all that I get. What a bust!  

[Clinton]

I may be one of the lucky ones.  This cell that contains some golfball sized hailed headed right at me.  Hoping for just the rain and no hail!

[Clinton]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

I may be one of the lucky ones.  This cell that contains some golfball sized hailed headed right at me.  Hoping for just the rain and no hail!

And amazingly I got missed.  

[hawkstwelve]

It has turned out to be a very nice day here after the AM rain with a lot of sun and temps climbing into the mid 70s. Not seeing much action on radar at the moment but does sound like there are some favorable parameters for thunderstorm development, per NWS FSD. Gotta keep an eye to the sky!

    - Parameters for Severe Weather: SPC mesoanalysis shows
      increasing surface vorticity and convergence this afternoon
      west of I- 29. Clearing and cumulus development would
      indicate that the atmosphere is trying to destabilize
      (especially given the recent development), and forecast
      instability values may be lower than reality. Mid level
      lapse rates around 6.5 deg C/km would support large hail.
      Heavy rain is possible, with PWATs around 1.5 inches. LCL
      heights are around 500 m, which could be favorable for
      funnels/tornadoes.

    - Parameters against Severe Weather: Although we have shear at
      or above 30 knots from the 0-6 km layer, stronger winds
      above this layer may be inhibiting the upward growth of
      cells (seen on satellite by the stretched anvils). Forecast
      instability values are generally around/below 1000 J/kg,
      making it more difficult for strong/severe updrafts to
      maintain themselves.