Niko Posted October 18, 2023 Report Share Posted October 18, 2023 It will get might cold Sunday and Sunday nite w highs not getting outta the 40s and lows in the upper 20s to near 30F. First freeze of the season for S MI. Freeze and Frost advisories are looking likely for this weekend. Growing season has officially ended. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 18, 2023 Report Share Posted October 18, 2023 My fellow okies have covered all the points I came to write on for my area of the region. If ensemble trends are continued, the shot at the end of this month will bring early winter temps to half the state and possibly much earlier snow than normal. The pattern developing and retrograding over the US is how you set up real deal winter. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 18, 2023 Report Share Posted October 18, 2023 12z GEFS is further north on the snow line 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted October 18, 2023 Report Share Posted October 18, 2023 12z GFS drops almost a foot of snow over Sioux Falls between Thursday and Friday of next week. Too bad it's the GFS so the inherent trust is minimal. Although really both models are struggling with the pattern right now. Skill scores have dropped into the low/mid 80s for both the Euro and GFS. Lots of time to iron things out. Fully expecting, in keeping with the recent theme of the past few months, that somehow things will work out to be bland and boring. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 18, 2023 Report Share Posted October 18, 2023 12z Euro starting to look more like the GFS in the long range. Both models indicating not fall like but winter temps the last week of the month. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted October 18, 2023 Report Share Posted October 18, 2023 2 hours ago, Clinton said: 12z Euro starting to look more like the GFS in the long range. Both models indicating not fall like but winter temps the last week of the month. Hello winter, welcome back. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 18, 2023 Report Share Posted October 18, 2023 53 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: Hello winter, welcome back. Hello winter and might it stay for awhile. It would be nice to see the MJO cycle through the cold phases as this new weather pattern develops and it sure looks like it's off to a great start. The GEFS is showing some amplified solutions in phase 8 and 1 as we move into November and it also has support from the other major long range models. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 19, 2023 Report Share Posted October 19, 2023 My grids have 40s for highs and even some upper 30s to finish out October! 3 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 19, 2023 Report Share Posted October 19, 2023 HERE IT COMES! 3 3 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 19, 2023 Report Share Posted October 19, 2023 8 hours ago, Niko said: It will get might cold Sunday and Sunday nite w highs not getting outta the 40s and lows in the upper 20s to near 30F. First freeze of the season for S MI. Freeze and Frost advisories are looking likely for this weekend. Growing season has officially ended. It is taking it's (normal) time so far this autumn unlike a year ago when some areas around the GL's were already getting their first taste of winter! I'm fine with it. Let the western Peeps score early. Snow in October is rarely a good harbinger here, and New Englanders consider it a veritable death knell for their upcoming season. A year ago: 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted October 19, 2023 Report Share Posted October 19, 2023 1 hour ago, Clinton said: Hello winter and might it stay for awhile. It would be nice to see the MJO cycle through the cold phases as this new weather pattern develops and it sure looks like it's off to a great start. The GEFS is showing some amplified solutions in phase 8 and 1 as we move into November and it also has support from the other major long range models. This is actually what Eric Snodgrass has been saying in his daily morning videos from Nutrien Ag. solutions on YouTube. Good stuff Clinton. My son and I are going to Lincoln Saturday for the Nebraska vs. Northwestern game. Weather looks great. My daughter is going with some friends to the Nebraska vs Purdue game in Lincoln on the 28th. I told her she better dress warm, as there might be some chances of rain or snow with cold and windy conditions. She was not happy. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 19, 2023 Report Share Posted October 19, 2023 41 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: This is actually what Eric Snodgrass has been saying in his daily morning videos from Nutrien Ag. solutions on YouTube. Good stuff Clinton. My son and I are going to Lincoln Saturday for the Nebraska vs. Northwestern game. Weather looks great. My daughter is going with some friends to the Nebraska vs Purdue game in Lincoln on the 28th. I told her she better dress warm, as there might be some chances of rain or snow with cold and windy conditions. She was not happy. I remember watching Nebraska play with some snow falling in Lincoln. It will make for a festive atmosphere and that's football weather! 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted October 19, 2023 Report Share Posted October 19, 2023 41 minutes ago, Clinton said: I remember watching Nebraska play with some snow falling in Lincoln. It will make for a festive atmosphere and that's football weather! I’m at the point of my life that I hate sitting at cold weather games. Watching in the man cave is so much more comfortable. Been there done that for cold, windy, snowy games at Memorial Stadium over the years. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted October 19, 2023 Report Share Posted October 19, 2023 Snow games are awesome…. On TV!! 3 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 19, 2023 Report Share Posted October 19, 2023 Great blog by TSwails this morning I encourage everyone to read it. More evidence pointing to a cold close to Oct and a cold start for at least the first half of Nov. -EPO, -WPO, +PNA, MJO in cold phases at the same time burrr! Most importantly moisture for those of us who need it! https://www.tswails.com/single-post/winter-is-stirring 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted October 19, 2023 Report Share Posted October 19, 2023 Some fun facts. The coldest it has gotten here in Grand Rapids so far this October is just 37 if that were to hold until the end of the month it would be the warmest minimum for any October. The current warmest record low is 35 set in 1931 and 1938. Another fun fact is that here in Grand Rapids there were 11 days in a row of below average temperatures but the month is still above average due to the warm start. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 19, 2023 Report Share Posted October 19, 2023 2 hours ago, Clinton said: Great blog by TSwails this morning I encourage everyone to read it. More evidence pointing to a cold close to Oct and a cold start for at least the first half of Nov. -EPO, -WPO, +PNA, MJO in cold phases at the same time burrr! Most importantly moisture for those of us who need it! https://www.tswails.com/single-post/winter-is-stirring The "Heart of the LRC"...I'm sure Gary is going to comment on this in his paid blog next week...this pattern is certainly very intriguing to me as we head deeper into the colder months... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 19, 2023 Report Share Posted October 19, 2023 13 minutes ago, Tom said: The "Heart of the LRC"...I'm sure Gary is going to comment on this in his paid blog next week...this pattern is certainly very intriguing to me as we head deeper into the colder months... Have you subscribed I'm giving it some strong consideration? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 19, 2023 Report Share Posted October 19, 2023 15 minutes ago, Clinton said: Have you subscribed I'm giving it some strong consideration? I think I will sometime soon... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowxman Posted October 19, 2023 Report Share Posted October 19, 2023 One last nice day before rain arrives toward Friday AM. We may see the sun again by later Saturday. Sharply chillier by Sunday with some frost even possible by Tuesday morning. A nice warm up by the end of next week before a turn to colder to finish out October with a chance of our first freeze around the 30th. Records for today: High 83 (1963) / Low 22 (1974) / Rain 3.14" (1996) Quote All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA. We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County. There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science! Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" - 11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8") Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5") 2020/21 snow (52.2") / 2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0"). Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com. Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx National Weather Service SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted October 19, 2023 Report Share Posted October 19, 2023 12 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said: This is actually what Eric Snodgrass has been saying in his daily morning videos from Nutrien Ag. solutions on YouTube. Good stuff Clinton. My son and I are going to Lincoln Saturday for the Nebraska vs. Northwestern game. Weather looks great. My daughter is going with some friends to the Nebraska vs Purdue game in Lincoln on the 28th. I told her she better dress warm, as there might be some chances of rain or snow with cold and windy conditions. She was not happy. Taking my kids to their first Husker football game on Saturday… the weather looks outstanding! Couldn’t ask for better Fall weather this weekend - before the big change occurs next week. Winter is most definitely coming! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 19, 2023 Report Share Posted October 19, 2023 Temps have yet again been bumped up today and for tomorrow...104F!!! I was out at the pool yesterday and it was definitely HOT...today and tomorrow will be scorchers. I will say, however, the BIG difference is the sun angle as it is a lot lower than when I left in June so you don't necessarily feel it burning up your skin as quickly. Nevertheless, you will get a nice tan and the recommended does of your daily Vitamin D! 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 19, 2023 Report Share Posted October 19, 2023 26 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said: I hope that sprawling impenetrable eastern high pressure isn't a recurring feature of this year's LRC.. If it becomes an extremely west based NAO block, the east won't have winter, but the central/interior eastern US will. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted October 19, 2023 Report Share Posted October 19, 2023 I’m in the bright red. Extreme. Hoping to listen to thunder and rain on my roof!!! 86*. Humidity 22% 1 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 19, 2023 Report Share Posted October 19, 2023 10 hours ago, westMJim said: Some fun facts. The coldest it has gotten here in Grand Rapids so far this October is just 37 if that were to hold until the end of the month it would be the warmest minimum for any October. The current warmest record low is 35 set in 1931 and 1938. Another fun fact is that here in Grand Rapids there were 11 days in a row of below average temperatures but the month is still above average due to the warm start. WPC says frost in-bound: Meanwhile, NWS says "no" to headlines: So yes, its an odd autumn/October so far. I was noticing the same exact thing. Thought for sure we'd be BN for the month. Was surprised to see we are just down in the avg range at +0.7 departure. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 19, 2023 Report Share Posted October 19, 2023 3 minutes ago, jaster220 said: WPC says frost in-bound: Meanwhile, NWS says "no" to headlines: So yes, its an odd autumn/October so far. I was noticing the same exact thing. Thought for sure we'd be BN for the month. Was surprised to see we are just down in the avg range at +0.7 departure. I'm digging the heavy rain circle. It's been dry for so long, I feel like I have a lot riding on next weeks system or systems just to convince me next year wont be like this past year. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 19, 2023 Report Share Posted October 19, 2023 Todays 12z models show the pattern reloading with storms behind next weeks system. With some cold air in place, some of the northern and maybe central posters could see their first snow of the season. Spooky Halloween! 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 19, 2023 Report Share Posted October 19, 2023 @CentralNebWeather you may bat lead off this year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted October 19, 2023 Report Share Posted October 19, 2023 56 minutes ago, Clinton said: I'm digging the heavy rain circle. It's been dry for so long, I feel like I have a lot riding on next weeks system or systems just to convince me next year wont be like this past year. I’m digging it with you!! 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted October 19, 2023 Report Share Posted October 19, 2023 1 hour ago, Clinton said: @CentralNebWeather you may bat lead off this year. Would bring back memories of the Halloween Blizzard of 1991. I would say that is a top 5 in the best blizzards that I’ve lived through in Central Nebraska. Not calling for a blizzard, just remember the record cold of late October into November 1991. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted October 20, 2023 Report Share Posted October 20, 2023 On 10/17/2023 at 9:55 AM, Iceresistance said: Colder than I expected This is some pretty chilly air! Even for Oklahoma this time of year. Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 20, 2023 Report Share Posted October 20, 2023 It gets real chilly this weekend, but gets even colder for next weekend. It could be a long stretch of cold air b4 any moderation moves in. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted October 20, 2023 Report Share Posted October 20, 2023 The official H/L yesterday was 57/52 there was 0.29” of rain fall. No snow fall. There were 10 HDD’s and 0% of sun. The highest wind gust was 20 MPH out of the S. For today the average H/L is 59/41 the record high of 83 was set in 1953 and the record low of 22 was set in 1952 and 1974. The record precip was 1.11” in 1916 and the record snow fall is 2.2” in 1992. Last year the H/L was 54/34 and there was a trace of rain fall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted October 20, 2023 Report Share Posted October 20, 2023 October now has 19 days in the record books. At Grand Rapids, MI the mean is 54.8 that is +1.1. The highest for the month was 86 on the 3rd the coldest low so far is 37 on the 8th There has been a total of 3.86” of precipitation that is +1.40 for the 1st 19 days of the month. There has been no snowfall yet. There have been 2 clear days 11 partly cloudy days and 2 cloudy days so far. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted October 20, 2023 Report Share Posted October 20, 2023 Could have a pretty substantial rain event the middle of next week around here. We will have several days of moist southwest flow and good forcing to ring out plenty of rain for somebody. 1 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowxman Posted October 20, 2023 Report Share Posted October 20, 2023 A mild cloudy day ahead for Chester County today we should see highs in the above normal mid to upper 60's. Rain looks to stay to our east this AM with rain chances increasing after 5pm tonight. Drying out tomorrow and windy and chilly on both Sunday and Monday with temps remaining below normal from tomorrow through Tuesday. Above normal temps return by Tuesday and we should stay warm through the end of next week. Records for today: High 82 (1969) / Low 21 (1972) / Rain 2.48" (1988) Quote All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA. We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County. There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science! Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" - 11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8") Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5") 2020/21 snow (52.2") / 2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0"). Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com. Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx National Weather Service SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 20, 2023 Report Share Posted October 20, 2023 Started a new thread for next weeks storm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 20, 2023 Report Share Posted October 20, 2023 PHX set another record high yesterday of 104F...we'll prob match that today and likely set another record! It's just nuts to even fathom that its this Hot in late October. Normal high today is 88F....changes are coming and the Valley is ready for this Big change towards Autumn weather. Its been nothing short (pun intended) of wearing shorts and T's around these parts. As much as I'm a fan of Summer wx, I'd like to also see the snow begin to fall in the mountains up north. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted October 20, 2023 Author Report Share Posted October 20, 2023 14 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said: Would bring back memories of the Halloween Blizzard of 1991. I would say that is a top 5 in the best blizzards that I’ve lived through in Central Nebraska. Not calling for a blizzard, just remember the record cold of late October into November 1991. I remember that really well. We had halloween canceled that year I was so mad! We had that really cold stretch at the end of Oct. into Nov. but then after that the rest of the winter was a blow torch. I think it was like 70 on x mas that year. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted October 20, 2023 Author Report Share Posted October 20, 2023 For those of you who are interested in understanding the LRC here is a snap shot. This was from back in 2018-2019, I took a screen shot of the storm system that affected us in Oct of that year. The other image is when the bomb cyclone hit my area that March. Pretty remarkable how the systems not only resemble each other; the storm almost hit on the same exact date 5 months later! 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.