October 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Phil]

Come Jan/Feb the IPWP/ENSO structure becomes more important and a more canonical response is likely over the CONUS, of course.

Ironically the pattern progression in Jan/Feb is arguably more “predictable” at this range than Nov/Dec, which could go in a number of different directions depending on the timing/alignment of boreal winter forcings as they establish.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

49 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It went to fast, work was painfully busy and no summer vacation this year. I hope you had a good one man.

It was busy but we had a lot of fun, maybe too much.

[Cold Snap]

It’s that time of year again where the NWS starts making these maps again.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

5 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

It’s that time of year again where the NWS starts making these maps again.

The dumbest maps

[MossMan]

8 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

It’s that time of year again where the NWS starts making these maps again.

Oh come on…Seattle will be getting at least as much as Stevens Pass! 

[GHweatherChris]

1 hour ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

You can see the front (in red) I'm not sure what the line of no clouds is (in orange). 

Arctic front I think...?

[Phil]

6 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

To this point this fall has evolved quite a bit differently than 2002 and 2019, IMO. 

2002 and 2019 were also nothing alike, respectively.

6 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah, my only comparison is the similarities of late October to those years…not as a whole autumn. We will see though would love to be wrong about this winter. I definitely think we see our warmest February since 2016…and likely no snowfall here after 7 years in a row with snow. 

The mythical October - winter connection has been disproven each of the last 5 years yet it’s still referenced here. But I’m not dying on that hill again, so I digress.

6 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

East Coast weenies may be disappointed this winter. 

Definitely possible. But our window to score is substantially longer than yours this winter, so it’s likely you would be joining us in our misery.

6 hours ago, Slushy Inch said:

If anyone can find what is causing this pattern maybe we can see if it’s likely to happen again. PDO definitely involved. Could be dominant influence for first half of Winter?

Daily PDO values are almost neutral now. Will probably be positive before Christmas.

[Ken in Wood Village]

40 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Arctic front I think...?

I was kind of thinking the same thing. A boundary between moist air from cold dry air. 

[Snownerd3000]

15 minutes ago, Phil said:

2002 and 2019 were also nothing alike, respectively.

The mythical October - winter connection has been disproven each of the last 5 years yet it’s still referenced here. But I’m not dying on that hill again, so I digress.

Definitely possible. But our window to score is substantially longer than yours this winter, so it’s likely you would be joining us in our misery.

Daily PDO values are almost neutral now. Will probably be positive before Christmas.

Been meaning to ask, where do you find the daily values for pdo? 

[MWG]

Looking like our first 30'sF  will be this week!  

 

[Ken in Wood Village]

I think a lot of you may like this. 🌧🌨

 

[Chewbacca Defense]

20 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

I think a lot of you may like this. 🌧🌨

 

LOL he said he wasn't doing a second video  today.  I guess he couldn't help himself!

[Ken in Wood Village]

17 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

LOL he said he wasn't doing a second video  today.  I guess he couldn't help himself!

Actually he did say he was thinking about doing another one tonight but didn't know if he would or wouldn't. I guess he decided he would. 

[LowerGarfield]

Pretty soon I will have to take my rain gauge inside. The NWS and Cocorahs always love saying just take the funnel and inner piece inside, but I'm also afraid of breaking the main gauge if I leave it out to freeze and re-freeze. How do you measure rain in the winter? granted I probably have colder temps on more days than you West siders but you still get frosty days of course. I need something to measure and watch since my location will probably miss out.

Do you use a special type of gauge in the winter for rain?

[Phil]

2 hours ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Been meaning to ask, where do you find the daily values for pdo? 

I can't share the in-house data publicly but WCS publishes them from time to time.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

18 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Pretty soon I will have to take my rain gauge inside. The NWS and Cocorahs always love saying just take the funnel and inner piece inside, but I'm also afraid of breaking the main gauge if I leave it out to freeze and re-freeze. How do you measure rain in the winter? granted I probably have colder temps on more days than you West siders but you still get frosty days of course. I need something to measure and watch since my location will probably miss out.

Do you use a special type of gauge in the winter for rain?

I've never had an issue with it through multiple freeze-thaw cycles and flash freezes. Being elevated helps with radiation freezes. But it depends on the quality of your weather station.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Already down to 37. Cold air is here

[SilverFallsAndrew]

31 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Pretty soon I will have to take my rain gauge inside. The NWS and Cocorahs always love saying just take the funnel and inner piece inside, but I'm also afraid of breaking the main gauge if I leave it out to freeze and re-freeze. How do you measure rain in the winter? granted I probably have colder temps on more days than you West siders but you still get frosty days of course. I need something to measure and watch since my location will probably miss out.

Do you use a special type of gauge in the winter for rain?

Yeah I’ve never had an issue with just leaving the main piece out. 

[Phil]

Wow, the 1877-78 El Nino was a beast. Reconstructed peak ONI +3.5C compared to +2.8C in 1997/98.

https://ensoreview.com/enso/1877-1878-el-nino/

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

35… plummeting fast

[Cold Snap]

10 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

35… plummeting fast

Wow you’ll probably be able to get a freeze on tonight. Still 48 here.

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

I've never had an issue with it through multiple freeze-thaw cycles and flash freezes. Being elevated helps with radiation freezes. But it depends on the quality of your weather station.

I leave mine out in the winter. It freezes and thaws all the time especially if I’m out of town.  Never seems to be an issue even if the inner and outer cylinders both have water in them.  It’s a stratus rain gauge. Pretty sturdy plastic. 

[ShawniganLake]

39F here. Partly cloudy with a light breeze

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Lows forecast well into the teens by late week out on the Oregon high desert. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

50F and partly cloudy. But can still see plenty of stars. Really nice evening.

[andrewr]

Just drove over Cayuse Pass and it was 35 with a light snow shower. 

[Ken in Wood Village]

The cold air hasn't arrived yet. It's coming tho, you can see it coming down in this satellite picture. It will be arriving later today. Once the precipitation starts, I believe the temperatures will start falling. 🌧🌨

[Cascadia_Wx]

Pretty remarkable how watered down this “event” has become. We’re back to high heights and ridging in about four days.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Started raining about 30 min ago, and already have some lightning popping off…

[Anti Marine Layer]

21 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Pretty remarkable how watered down this “event” has become. We’re back to high heights and ridging in about four days.

How many consecutive cloudy and rainy days with highs in the 50s does it take to satisfy Jesse?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

44.1˚F, and seeing as how it's not modelled to get much warmer than 46˚F today, probably will end up with a midnight high.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

32 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Pretty remarkable how watered down this “event” has become. We’re back to high heights and ridging in about four days.

Still modelled to be a string of days with highs in the 40’s here, which is pretty impressive for October.

[Chewbacca Defense]

15 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

44.1˚F, and seeing as how it's not modelled to get much warmer than 46˚F today, probably will end up with a midnight high.

Temp here was at 46 around 5am and has since dropped to 43 with this band of light rain.  .08" in the bucket so far.

[MossMan]

41 for a low. Currently 42. 

[Ellsworb]

45 and crisp on the east shore of Lake Tapps this morning.  The feel of the breeze last evening before I went to bed was notably chilly!

[ShawniganLake]

Official forecast for my area is 2-3” of rain today and tonight with rain becoming mixed with snow possibly down to sea level.  Snow level is expected to drop below 1000ft this evening.  I figured this storm would trend warmer in the home stretch but it hasn’t.  Pretty cool to see something like this so early. 

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Pretty remarkable how watered down this “event” has become. We’re back to high heights and ridging in about four days.

even the media over here is hedging a little this morning. typical marginal, elevation dependent early season event.  I doubt I see an inch, maybe a half inch.  (doing that so we get an unexpected 6")

[Chewbacca Defense]

Just heard a rumble of thunder

[Tyler Mode]

Was surprised and excited to see Logan Pass webcams working this morning...after almost two years offline.  I'm not sure how long they'll be up.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

50 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Just heard a rumble of thunder

Only a few light sprinkles so far up this way.