November 2023 Weather in the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The spaghetti chart is pretty comical... 

[Deweydog]

37 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I for one am totally stoked.

I mean, when HASN’T a GFS clown range operational (without Euro or ensemble mean support) later verified?

@iFred, please ban all the Debbie Downers.

It’s actually pretty frequent. Operation model runs beyond seven days or so can often vary wildly at times and should be taken with a grain of salt. This is one of the reasons most mainstream “extended” forecasts don’t exceed a seven day time frame.

[ShawniganLake]

Euro wasn’t bad.  Seasonal and active. Some mountain snow.  Anyone want to extrapolate out from day 10.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Nice run.

[Front Ranger]

35 minutes ago, Phil said:

The fact the 384hr GFS couldn’t get it up until now reflects just how brutal the pattern progression is/has been for cold on our side of the pole.

Do you just mean going forward? Because there has definitely been some cold around recently. 

[Deweydog]

7 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Euro wasn’t bad.  Seasonal and active. Some mountain snow.  Anyone want to extrapolate out from day 10.  

My equipment is in storage.

[Front Ranger]

23 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The spaghetti chart is pretty comical... 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Ended up with some light frost this morning giving way to fog, and a low of 34. Today could stay chilly too with clouds from the next system moving inn now. Currently overcast and 46. Nice to see temps a little more seasonable after a total blowtorch the first week of the month.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Ended up with lots of afternoon sunbreaks after morning rain, and a 56/44 day on Tuesday. Midnight low with some late clearing.

Yesterday was quite nice with morning low clouds and afternoon sun, but temps staying seasonably cool. 53/38 spread, with a midnight low once again.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Do you just mean going forward? Because there has definitely been some cold around recently. 

As you can see on that map, it has been pretty warm at his house. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

35 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The spaghetti chart is pretty comical... 

Post it lol. Nice couple runs tho. It can only get better from here!!!

[ShawniganLake]

18 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

My equipment is in storage.

Your mother in law doesn’t have a spare extrapolation easel.    

[TigerWoodsLibido]

EC ensemble showing some potential.

[Cold Snap]

Nice to see that there’s some eye candy to track. GEFS isn’t looking too great right now. Nice to have some support from the EPS. GFS is definitely out to lunch though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

EC ensemble showing some potential.

OHHHHHHHHHH

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Post it lol. Nice couple runs tho. It can only get better from here!!!

[MossMan]

November 1985 redux incoming! Screw the Nino! 

[Cold Snap]

Also managed to squeak in a freeze this morning. Low of 32 here.

[RentonHill]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We are in the ballgame. The eye candy is fun. 

We are in the arena trying stuff!!

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I actually laughed out loud at this. 

[RentonHill]

Blue Spaghetti chart time

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

It’s actually pretty frequent. Operation model runs beyond seven days or so can often vary wildly at times and should be taken with a grain of salt. This is one of the reasons most mainstream “extended” forecasts don’t exceed a seven day time frame.

 

[Cold Snap]

12z EPS still looks good. GEFS not so much.

[ShawniganLake]

38 minutes ago, MossMan said:

November 1985 redux incoming! Screw the Nino! 

Of course YOU have photos on hand from 1985. .  Not sure if your area missed out but some places had a lot more snow than that.  I was only a toddler then but I remember hearing stories of a blizzard that November and my parents having to rescue me from the front yard when the snow was too deep for me to escape. ️ 

[iFred]

@Rubus Leucodermis what are the odds that I get another email from a professional meteorologist expressing their frustrations that I run a community where weather weenies are once again damaging the reputation of trained and studied professionals and that I should limit contributions to only those who are both educated and trained in the atmospheric sciences?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wasn't 1985 a Nina? 2006 was a Nino, I believe 1896 was a Nino as well. That blast was absolutely tremendous. A 26/12 day at SLE. November does not deliver often in the western lowlands, but when it does it can do so in a big way. 

[Meatyorologist]

58 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

EC ensemble showing some potential.

But the stratosphere, Brian...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

But the stratosphere, Brian...

Not the best teleconnections there... 

[Meatyorologist]

8 minutes ago, iFred said:

@Rubus Leucodermis what are the odds that I get another email from a professional meteorologist expressing their frustrations that I run a community where weather weenies are once again damaging the reputation of trained and studied professionals and that I should limit contributions to only those who are both educated and trained in the atmospheric sciences?

You shouldn't let people experiment with snowmaps, Fred. It's really dangerous and the spiraling starts before one even notices. One day they're 'just trying out pivotal plus'. Then they're hacking the Fox 12 chiron using an anonymous zip bomb sent to an employee disguised as FCC logs from a colleague, making it display 700 hour cumulative CFS snowmaps the entire morning news cycle.

Before you know it they're on their third straight day awake strung out on a semi-lethal dose of black coffee emailing apocalyptic GEPS members to every small business in their zip code, jamming the NWS call line, and sending death threats to anyone on Twitter doubting whether the 492dm thickness line will sink past Bellingham.

[Meatyorologist]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not the best teleconnections there... 

Bare ground here in NEW YORK Andrew.

[RentonHill]

dont wanna jinx anything....but the 12z EPS does have a winner in there. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Bare ground here in NEW YORK Andrew.

I am disappointed for you. Hope you make it to a JETS game while you are there. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

dont wanna jinx anything....but the 12z EPS does have a winner in there. 

And seven times as many members showing 850 mb temps of +10°C or better.

[the_convergence_zone]

That was a juicy Euro run, pretty much a new storm every 48 hours from now until Thanksgiving. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, the_convergence_zone said:

That was a juicy Euro run, pretty much a new storm every 48 hours from now until Thanksgiving. 

Given an arctic blast is extremely unlikely, I would take this outcome in a heartbeat. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, the_convergence_zone said:

That was a juicy Euro run, pretty much a new storm every 48 hours from now until Thanksgiving. 

No white donut hole over @Port Angeles Foothiller. Throw it out!

[RentonHill]

6 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

And seven times as many members showing 850 mb temps of +10°C or better.

[MossMan]

40 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Of course YOU have photos on hand from 1985. .  Not sure if your area missed out but some places had a lot more snow than that.  I was only a toddler then but I remember hearing stories of a blizzard that November and my parents having to rescue me from the front yard when the snow was too deep for me to escape. ️ 

We got a lot more than this picture as well, but I can’t find the picture of me buried up to my waist (I had just turned 9) in the driveway next to the same car. I need to go through my dads boxes of pictures. 

[MossMan]

12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I am disappointed for you. Hope you make it to a JETS game while you are there. 

 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

[umadbro]

26 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I am disappointed for you. Hope you make it to a JETS game while you are there. 

Oof, I wouldn’t wish that even on my worst enemy.