November 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving . Woke up at 5am to do some Black Friday shopping and had lots of ice this morning. It felt like winter out there while driving. Just got home and ready for the first ever Black Friday football game!

 

[TT-SEA]

No rain until maybe next Saturday per the 12Z ECMWF.     And even that is not much.   CA does pretty well over the next week.   San Diego gets significantly more rain than Seattle.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

No rain until maybe next Saturday per the 12Z ECMWF.     And even that is not much.   CA does pretty well over the next week.   San Diego gets significantly more rain than Seattle.

And then the ridge builds after that.   Ridge also is shown in the ensembles.

Europe will be colder and snowier than normal for the next 2 weeks, so that should bold well for our trip there in early December. 

 

[awright-31]

https://komonews.com/news/local/steve-pool-seattle-passes-away-long-battle-with-illness-komo-television-legend-weather-man-forecaster-meteorologist-western-washington-reporting-news-inspiration-features
 

Oh man. Steve Pool has died.

I’m sure I’m not the only one that grew up watching him on KOMO. He was the one I really liked to watch when I was first getting interested in the weather. 

[snow_wizard]

The 12z ECMWF extended the cold snap 2 days vs the 0z.

For SEA next Friday and Saturday it has lows 28 and 33 for SEA vs 39 and 40 on the 0z.

[AlTahoe]

6 hours ago, Phil said:

+dAAMt upcoming (mostly EA source) w/ momentum cleanly fluxed thru STJ. Get ready Lake Tahoe people.  

Hopefully the models catch on cause they are not showing anything for us except for more ridging through mid Dec. 

[snow_wizard]

42 minutes ago, awright-31 said:

https://komonews.com/news/local/steve-pool-seattle-passes-away-long-battle-with-illness-komo-television-legend-weather-man-forecaster-meteorologist-western-washington-reporting-news-inspiration-features
 

Oh man. Steve Pool has died.

I’m sure I’m not the only one that grew up watching him on KOMO. He was the one I really liked to watch when I was first getting interested in the weather. 

I was so sad to hear that.  He used to come into Rosellini's Restaurant during the 1980s when I worked there so I got to talk to him a few times.

[North_County]

On 11/22/2023 at 8:32 PM, MossMan said:

I was just going to say, was paying about 98 cents a gallon for El Camino around that time! I averaged about 10MPG the way I drove that thing. 

My kids think I'm lying when I tell them I freaked out the first time it cost me 20 bucks to fill my tank.

[ShawniganLake]

This is the type of weather where the shaded areas stay frosty all day even though the afternoon highs are close to 50F.  If the low clouds stay away the frost could build over the next week. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, AlTahoe said:

Hopefully the models catch on cause they are not showing anything for us except for more ridging through mid Dec. 

I was going to say last night's EPS showed CA drier than normal for the next 15 days.  Not typical Nino fare.

All I can say is I think there will be some kind of a huge surprise sometime in the next 6 weeks.  Not sure what though.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, ShawniganLake said:

This is the type of weather where the shaded areas stay frosty all day even though the afternoon highs are close to 50F.  If the low clouds stay away the frost could build over the next week. 

Not even supposed to get close to 50 in this area for the next week.

I think this going to be more of a clear cold snap than fog / low clouds.

 

[snow_wizard]

Another cold snap where there is abnormally little easterly surface pressure gradient.  That is really odd with a Nino in play.  Even places like North Bend are going to be cold with little if any east wind.  In fact they are colder than the Pass right now.  This has been an ongoing thing this season.  Not sure if it has any implications going forward or not.

[Doinko]

2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

You must live in one of those pesky warm spots.

The East wind can keep our lows warm sometimes. This summer, we had a 107/76 day because the East wind kept us warm throughout the night

[snow_wizard]

9 minutes ago, North_County said:

My kids think I'm lying when I tell them I freaked out the first time it cost me 20 bucks to fill my tank.

I can remember when it was 30 cents a gallon or so.  That would equate to about 8 or 9 bucks to fill my Expedition.  Just absurd.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

The East wind can keep our lows warm sometimes. This summer, we had a 107/76 day because the East wind kept us warm throughout the night

I can't promise no east winds down there, but in the Puget Sound area east winds are not going to happen at least for a few more days.  This pattern is great for cold IMBY.

[SnowWillarrive]

13 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

This is the type of weather where the shaded areas stay frosty all day even though the afternoon highs are close to 50F.  If the low clouds stay away the frost could build over the next week. 

I wish we could get this weather after 20 inches of snow. 

[ShawniganLake]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Not even supposed to get close to 50 in this area for the next week.

I think this going to be more of a clear cold snap than fog / low clouds.

 

North Cowichan, which is the main station in this regional district, has been above 50F on 6 or the last 7 days.  Will probably end up close to 50 today.  We don’t do the inversion cold Snaps the way you guys do down there.  

[snow_wizard]

Our wettest part of the year and the EPS says abnormally dry for the next 15 days.  I was looking at Hoquiam for yearly total yesterday and they are running 22 inches below normal to date.  Serious stuff.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

I wish we could get this weather after 20 inches of snow. 

No doubt!

It used to happen much more often than we have seen in the past 30 years or so.  One of my favorite examples is February 1929.  We had a couple of weeks of cold and snow in January, a big snow on Feb 1 and then 2+ weeks of clear and cold.  Snow was on the ground for weeks.

After much consideration I would rank that winter number 4 for the 20th century after 1915-16, 1949-50, and 1968-69

[Cold Snap]

Had a low of 27 this morning. Got down to 30 before midnight so I managed to get in a freeze yesterday.

[TT-SEA]

25 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Another cold snap where there is abnormally little easterly surface pressure gradient.  That is really odd with a Nino in play.  Even places like North Bend are going to be cold with little if any east wind.  In fact they are colder than the Pass right now.  This has been an ongoing thing this season.  Not sure if it has any implications going forward or not.

ECMWF shows some east wind developing out here this weekend.   Enough to probably keep it warmer.   I really like the east wind out here in the cold season.   Keeps the soupy fog away too.  

[TT-SEA]

You can see the downslope effect in the high temps over the weekend as well.   Should be around 50 by Sunday out here. 

[TT-SEA]

54 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

This is the type of weather where the shaded areas stay frosty all day even though the afternoon highs are close to 50F.  If the low clouds stay away the frost could build over the next week. 

I have also seen snow stay perfectly preserved in deep shade areas with high temps close to 50 with this type of set up.    Phil doesn't believe me and says we have magical snow but dry air and a low sun angle is all it takes.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It would be nice to get some mountain snow. Cabin is still snow less,  probably first time this late in season in 20 years. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

21 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I have also seen snow stay perfectly preserved in deep shade areas with high temps close to 50 with this type of set up.    Phil doesn't believe me and says we have magical snow but dry air and a low sun angle is all it takes.

I have as well, we've talked about this. Very neat when it happens.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

58 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Our wettest part of the year and the EPS says abnormally dry for the next 15 days.  I was looking at Hoquiam for yearly total yesterday and they are running 22 inches below normal to date.  Serious stuff.

At some point that worm will turn. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

52 at PDX, 48 SLE, 46 EUG. Not impressed.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said:

This is the type of weather where the shaded areas stay frosty all day even though the afternoon highs are close to 50F.  If the low clouds stay away the frost could build over the next week. 

I’ve never seen that happen in my life. Must be a relatively moist boundary layer.

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I was going to say last night's EPS showed CA drier than normal for the next 15 days.  Not typical Nino fare.

All I can say is I think there will be some kind of a huge surprise sometime in the next 6 weeks.  Not sure what though.

The EPS has a wet signal over CA from week-3 onwards.

And I don’t see anything particularly unusual w/rt the pattern thus far. It’s been 8 years since we had a moderate or strong/super El Niño, our expectations are probably warped by recency bias.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Bottomed out at 28 this morning,  currently 45 under clear blue skies

[Gradient Keeper]

28.0 low temp here. 10 AM it was 36 with a light NE breeze. It felt cold and as close to Winter as it gets. 12z runs were not very inspiring today. Both the GFS and ECMWF Op runs were decidedly drier. Not a lot of action. A few weather systems skirt by to the south with rather weak fronts moving inland. One has to wonder could we see models trend drier more typical of an El Nino pattern? Who knows. I think it's very possible. Precip totals are lackluster and mountain snow is paltry at best. The EPS was similar to the GEFS with around an inch of rain through Day 10. The pattern though is not nearly as troughy as previous runs which looks very Nino unfortunately with ridging developing near the Coast.

00z GFS in 5 hours 47 minutes

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Couldn’t be more gorgeous up here today. Temp is 43 under severely clear skies. Frost lingers in shaded areas. 

[Phishy Wx]

23 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

At some point that worm will turn. 

in November 2024

[MossMan]

2 hours ago, awright-31 said:

https://komonews.com/news/local/steve-pool-seattle-passes-away-long-battle-with-illness-komo-television-legend-weather-man-forecaster-meteorologist-western-washington-reporting-news-inspiration-features
 

Oh man. Steve Pool has died.

I’m sure I’m not the only one that grew up watching him on KOMO. He was the one I really liked to watch when I was first getting interested in the weather. 

A Seattle meteorological legend. 
I grew up watching every newscast in the 80’s and 90’s when the weather was looking interesting. Him, Renner, and Wappler. 

 I still remember (and still have it on tape) during the huge December 1996 event Steve Pool calling onto the station from New York as he was filling in at Good Morning America, he said he was sick to his stomach for missing out on the Super Bowl of weather events that was happening here. You could just tell he had such a passion for the weather. 
 

Also my wife worked with him along with the other staff at KOMO in the last 1990’s and she said that all 3… Steve Pool, Kathy Goertzen, and Dan Lewis were all such class acts fantastic people. 

[Gradient Keeper]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Couldn’t be more gorgeous up here today. Temp is 43 under severely clear skies. Frost lingers in shaded areas. 

A crisp, Wintry feel to things today. A lot of sunshine, cold mornings, and east winds ahead for those who live east of I-205 or near mountain gaps.

[RentonHill]

46 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It would be nice to get some mountain snow. Cabin is still snow less,  probably first time this late in season in 20 years. 

Still bare at our place too except for some trace amounts in the shade. Honestly kind of nice after last season, imo. 

[Cold Snap]

Currently 39 here which is the high so far today.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Sunny and 49F right now. Beautiful day.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It would be nice to get some mountain snow. Cabin is still snow less,  probably first time this late in season in 20 years. 

Yeah....I was looking at the visible sat pic today and it's slim pickins for snow so far.

I went to my mine above Liberty last weekend and would still be able to this weekend.   Very rare.  It was cold up there though.

[snow_wizard]

31 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Still bare at our place too except for some trace amounts in the shade. Honestly kind of nice after last season, imo. 

I kind of agree, but there is so much more to it like shrinking glaciers, and water for the reservoirs.  If we could have those things be ok I would be down with this kind of weather 80% of the time this winter with the other 20% snowing.

[snow_wizard]

27 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Currently 39 here which is the high so far today.

44 for a high here which is pretty nippy, but 39 is quite impressive.

44/26 for the day.  Month to date is running below normal for many places north of OLM now.