November 2023 Weather in the PNW

[MossMan]

Another good frosty morning here! 
Currently 29 degrees. 

[MossMan]

16 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Only got down to 34 this morning with thick fog in Tacoma. The freeways are a living nightmare this morning in the south sound with some of the worst traffic I’ve seen in awhile…it should not take over 2 hours to get from federal way to Seattle

That really makes me thankful for my 3 minute commute. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

21 degrees!

[SnowySeeker50]

Currently 26 degrees and foggy

[Phil]

First snowflakes of the winter!!  

[Timmy Supercell]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

First snowflakes of the winter!!  

First cold as butphuck day here, but no observed snow flakes yet.

[Phil]

Just now, Timmy Supercell said:

First cold as butphuck day here, but no observed snow flakes yet.

Totally sunny, but enough instability in DGZ that these cumulus clouds are dropping snow.

Sun flurries. As usual w/ these setups, each flurry mixes down a wall of wind with calm in between which is kinda cool.

[Phil]

53 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Now if it’s going to be active and warm that’s fine by me. 

That’ll likely be the theme of the winter. Trending southward with time into CA/OR and away from BC/WA as winter goes on.

At least that’s my guess. Been awhile since we’ve had this type of El Niño so it’s possible it’ll behave differently now vs pre-1998.

[the_convergence_zone]

Amazingly I had my coldest morning of the fall so far with a low of 30.4 at 4:30 AM, then the fog rolled in. Unusually thick fog as others have noted with low visibility. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

HELLO EVERYONE! IT HAD BEEN A LONG TIME SINCE I HAVE POSTED!!  I am seriously inactive on here since I moved to Spokane but felt the need to check-in and post some local weather. LOOKS LIKE WINTER!  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, luvssnow_seattle said:

HELLO EVERYONE! IT HAD BEEN A LONG TIME SINCE I HAVE POSTED!!  I am seriously inactive on here since I moved to Spokane but felt the need to check-in and post some local weather. LOOKS LIKE WINTER!  

Luvssnowspokane 

[Phil]

GEFS starting to cave to the EPS w/rt weakening PV after the winter solstice. Had been projecting a strong vortex until the last week.

Will be interesting to follow. Most of these aren’t SSW criteria but an increasing number of them are.

[AlTahoe]

45 minutes ago, Phil said:

That’ll likely be the theme of the winter. Trending southward with time into CA/OR and away from BC/WA as winter goes on.

At least that’s my guess. Been awhile since we’ve had this type of El Niño so it’s possible it’ll behave differently now vs pre-1998.

Models keep showing a mega ridge off the California coast through the entirety of the runs. This is behaving like a LA Nina year for the Southwest so far. I have never not recorded snowfall in Nov and Dec but it is looking more and more likely this year. Good news is the Pnw will get hammered and hopefully put a dent into the drought. 

Edit: The Central Sierra snow lab recorded 3.9" back in Oct 25th and nothing since and nothing forecsst though at least Mid Dec. Their average through Dec is over 100"

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Plenty of fake cold on the long range GFS. A lot of these runs are showing ridiculously cold air in Alaska and W. Canada. Dislodge that around the holidays and away we go!

[LowerGarfield]

1 hour ago, TacomaWx said:

Thankfully I was not trying to get to Seattle this morning…but it still took almost an hour to get to Covington. The fog was just really bad this morning so it really snarled the commute. Most of the time I work places where it’s only a 30-45 minute commute home. 

I saw a reddit post a few weeks ago from someone wanting to commute from North SnoCo to Olympia and we all told them they were nuts. Days like this all the more. I'm hoping to check my weather station hourly to see if we have a sub freezing high today or tomorrow. Both are possible but should be close.

[Deweydog]

37 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Models keep showing a mega ridge off the California coast through the entirety of the runs. This is behaving like a LA Nina year for the Southwest so far. I have never not recorded snowfall in Nov and Dec but it is looking more and more likely this year. Good news is the Pnw will get hammered and hopefully put a dent into the drought. 

Edit: The Central Sierra snow lab recorded 3.9" back in Oct 25th and nothing since and nothing forecsst though at least Mid Dec. Their average through Dec is over 100"

Nino climo typically doesn’t hit its stride until New Years or so. December is often a wildcard.

Edited November 28, 2023 by Deweydog

[Chewbacca Defense]

Got down to 26.6 this morning and was quite foggy for a while.  It's starting to burn off now and up to 29.  Gonna hit the road in about an hour to start making my way to Seatac

[TT-SEA]

No fog out here since Thanksgiving morning... no frost since Saturday. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

11 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

I saw a reddit post a few weeks ago from someone wanting to commute from North SnoCo to Olympia and we all told them they were nuts. Days like this all the more. I'm hoping to check my weather station hourly to see if we have a sub freezing high today or tomorrow. Both are possible but should be close.

D**n. My uncle used to commute from

Bellingham to Snohomish. I believe that is 70 miles each way. Not sure what the traffic is like, but I assume not great. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

No fog out here since Thanksgiving morning... no frost since Saturday. 

We haven’t had any fog here either, but it’s been getting gradually colder each day. The station on the ridge above the park was putting up 50/42 type days over the weekend (45/28 here), saw they only got up to 42 yesterday and were down around 30 this morning, so the low level cold is deepening. We were in the upper 30s yesterday and probably will be again today after a low of 25.

Edited November 28, 2023 by SilverFallsAndrew

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Glad to see the fake cold and inversions getting some love for once.

OT: Anyone else battling mice this fall? I’ve been trying to get this cagey little f*cker (I think there’s only one) for two weeks now… won’t come to my traps (14 of them set). The new morning ritual of cleaning up mouse poop is getting real old.

Now off to take advantage of the dry weather and take a hike in the Seymour Valley.

[umadbro]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

D**n. My uncle used to commute from

Bellingham to Snohomish. I believe that is 70 miles each way. Not sure what the traffic is like, but I assume not great. 

Bellingham to Snohomish is pretty easy.

[TT-SEA]

Another cool Space Needle view...

[LowerGarfield]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Glad to see the fake cold and inversions getting some love for once.

OT: Anyone else battling mice this fall? I’ve been trying to get this cagey little f*cker (I think there’s only one) for two weeks now… won’t come to my traps (14 of them set). The new morning ritual of cleaning up mouse poop is getting real old.

Now off to take advantage of the dry weather and take a hike in the Seymour Valley.

We had a field mouse for about a week when the temperature first dropped but no signs of any others and it's been other a month. We think it came in by accident to get out of the cold.

[LowerGarfield]

1 minute ago, umadbro said:

Bellingham to Snohomish is pretty easy.

True. From Marysville north it gets a lot easier. Just a long drive. Exceptions for Tulip season on the weekends in Mt Vernon and busy shopping days at Tulalip but still way easier.

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

That’ll likely be the theme of the winter. Trending southward with time into CA/OR and away from BC/WA as winter goes on.

At least that’s my guess. Been awhile since we’ve had this type of El Niño so it’s possible it’ll behave differently now vs pre-1998.

Away from BC?  Seems like it’s already been away from BC.  November rainfall is gonna be like around 60 or 70% or normal here. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, umadbro said:

Bellingham to Snohomish is pretty easy.

He did it 5 days a week for 10 years, other than summers (he was a teacher). All

while working a 2nd job. Guy has a lot of dog in him, total beserker, runs in the family .

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, ShawniganLake said:

Away from BC?  Seems like it’s already been away from BC.  November rainfall is gonna be like around 60 or 70% or normal here. 

About 80% normal here. Once again I’m not totally sure what Phil is talking about, but it’s okay. We love him unconditionally. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just a little soupy this morning. Ready to get some sun before the faucet is turned back on for a min

edit: wow this photo turned out bad

Edited November 28, 2023 by SouthHillFrosty

[Cascadia_Wx]

Low of 24 here this morning. Coldest of the season so far again. Wind held on until about 9-10pm last night before dying down, at which point it dropped below freezing at got frosty quick.

Looks like another 28 at PDX. VUO hit 23 yesterday morning and fell to 24 this morning.

[Chewbacca Defense]

19 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

D**n. My uncle used to commute from

Bellingham to Snohomish. I believe that is 70 miles each way. Not sure what the traffic is like, but I assume not great. 

If he was north of Everett, not too bad most days, but if he had to go into Everett then it sucked.  Also good idea to stay away from Everett mid afternoon during Boeing shift change.

[Cascadia_Wx]

12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

He did it 5 days a week for 10 years, other than summers (he was a teacher). All

while working a 2nd job. Guy has a lot of dog in him, total beserker, runs in the family .

I wonder what

he was running from.

[RentonHill]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

GEFS starting to cave to the EPS w/rt weakening PV after the winter solstice. Had been projecting a strong vortex until the last week.

Will be interesting to follow. Most of these aren’t SSW criteria but an increasing number of them are.

Where do you get that GEFS forecast 

[ShawniganLake]

18 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

About 80% normal here. Once again I’m not totally sure what Phil is talking about, but it’s okay. We love him unconditionally. 

Maybe he means it’s going to get wet in BC and then trend south.  The final 1/2 or 2/3rds of November will likely be historically dry here. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

SLE hit 23, pretty impressive. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I wonder what

he was running from.

Boredom. 

[Meatyorologist]

Got down to a new seasonal low of 25F here last night. Good for the 16th freeze of the season as we close in on December, not bad.

[the_convergence_zone]

The 12Z GFS is the wettest run yet. 7+ inches at KSEA through the end of next week due to the AR getting stuck in place over western WA next week. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

[RentonHill]

The euro is going balls deep on the precip