November 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Cascadia_Wx]

44 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

got any examples of a rich person's 2015?

2022

[the_convergence_zone]

20 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF shows the precip arriving in the Seattle area during the middle of the afternoon though... but definitely a possibility along the coast and down south.  

It does look like the snow level could get pretty low on Thursday night, even if the onset of precipitation is Thursday afternoon. I wouldn't rule out flakes down to about 1,000 ft. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

@MossMan could look good for u!

 

[Dave]

At my location, I have some serious shade during the low sun angle months in my backyard. Ended up foggy most of the day and had a sub 40 high of 36. Down to 34 currently. The airport missed out. Looks like the high there was 41 unless it creeps up a degree or two before sunset. I'm not a fan of fake cold setups, but I thought that some members might find that interesting. The ground in shaded spots is frozen like a rock still. I can break through though when I shift all my weight onto one foot. Makes a satisfying crunch.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

14 minutes ago, Dave said:

At my location, I have some serious shade during the low sun angle months in my backyard. Ended up foggy most of the day and had a sub 40 high of 36. Down to 34 currently. The airport missed out. Looks like the high there was 41 unless it creeps up a degree or two before sunset. I'm not a fan of fake cold setups, but I thought that some members might find that interesting. The ground in shaded spots is frozen like a rock still. I can break through though when I shift all my weight onto one foot. Makes a satisfying crunch.

Today threw up some November 2000 type numbers down the valley. That was a Nina though, a total waste of a winter at that. 

[TT-SEA]

We reach the earliest sunset in just over a week.   On our way back to after 9 p.m. again!

[Dave]

My crappy wireless weather computers crapped out a while ago. But this dude lives 2 blocks away from me. BTW, I know that my low was colder than his at 27. I woke up at around 4 and checked it out and it read 24. But you can see the high of the day that he had (36). I usually check my analog thermometer at least once an hour during the daytime if there is anything interesting to track.

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KOREUGEN393

[TT-SEA]

49/40 in North Bend today... east wind seems to have died off now so tonight might be colder.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like a 41/22 at Eugene today. 44/23 at Salem. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks like a 41/27 day here. Beautiful sunshine and our shady spots are still crispy.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Pulled off a 44/24 day here. Very nice. First sub-45 high of the season. Just a light easterly breeze in the afternoon, but the last few days it has worked to keep thing colder rather than mixing things out like over the weekend.

Some scenic high clouds out there, moving toward sunset. Looks like clearing behind them though, so likely another cold night.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Pulled off a 39/25 day. Already down to 35. Very impressed tbh

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Pulled off a 39/25 day. Already down to 35. Very impressed tbh

I was wondering why I was cold all day. Though, we did breifly reach the 40s here. It was 39 when I left work. 

Was not expecting that. 

[TT-SEA]

Some more of the sunset... from Bellingham this time.

[TT-SEA]

And from Seattle...

[Kolk1604]

12z EPS - 6hr max temps. There are some cold members for the 2nd week of December 

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Some dawgs in there.

[Dave]

Down to 32 already. I didn't think we were in store for another cold night but it appears that will be the case. 36 at the airport.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, Dave said:

Down to 32 already. I didn't think we were in store for another cold night but it appears that will be the case. 36 at the airport.

36F here. Hoping for one more freeze.

[Winterdog]

47 minutes ago, Dave said:

The ground in shaded spots is frozen like a rock still. I can break through though when I shift all my weight onto one foot. Makes a satisfying crunch.

I just broke through a few places on my driveway.   My crunches were not satisfying however.  Had a high of 40 (actually 39.9) after a low of 23. Currently 34 and going downward but I don't think it's going to get as cold here tonight with the satellite run showing high clouds on the increase.

[MossMan]

Lovely sunset, and my frost patches are getting quite thick! 

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

@MossMan could look good for u!

 

I’m bordering the first shade of blue!! 

[Dave]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Lovely sunset, and my frost patches are getting quite thick! 

Not quite necessary for the snow plow yet, but I say put the blade on now if you haven't already. I don't believe in jinx anymore. 

[snow_wizard]

Ended up with 41/23 here today.  The ground is really frozen now.

10 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Some dawgs in there.

Yesterday's weeklies had a large of number of members that got very cold during the second half of the run.  A few cold ones not too far out.  The models might be starting to see something.

[snow_wizard]

According to the ECMWF we have two more cold nights to go in this series.

This cold snap has been a real oddball.  Not very often you see Boeing Field colder than Omak.

[ShawniganLake]

A chilly 40/28 here today.  Cloudy and damp. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Photos from today's hike.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

24 minutes ago, Dave said:

Down to 32 already. I didn't think we were in store for another cold night but it appears that will be the case. 36 at the airport.

I’m in Lebanon right now and the high/mid level clouds we had much of the day appear to be clearing out nicely. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Ended up with 41/23 here today.  The ground is really frozen now.

Yesterday's weeklies had a large of number of members that got very cold during the second half of the run.  A few cold ones not too far out.  The models might be starting to see something.

I know Phil keeps talking about no cold on our side of the pole, but pretty much every long range model I see shows significant cold air loading in NW Canada once we get into December. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Winter Storm watch up for Oregon cascades. 

[Dave]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’m in Lebanon right now and the high/mid level clouds we had much of the day appear to be clearing out nicely. 

The main Willamette Valley fog belt is Lebanon to Eugene. Of course other areas get fog frequently as well, but there just isn't nearly as much. It is crystal clear here now, but the fog only burned off about 3 hours ago. I'm sure it will return quickly and everything will be an ice cube like it has been the last several days.

[T-Town]

More sunset pics. Could have picked just about any night in the past week. 

[the_convergence_zone]

I can already see a layer of fog forming over SODO south of the stadiums. 
 

It was my coldest day of the fall, a high of 43.5. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I know Phil keeps talking about no cold on our side of the pole, but pretty much every long range model I see shows significant cold air loading in NW Canada once we get into December. 

But, but, teleconnections and a half-dozen acronyms.

So there!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Here's the peena

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Here's the peena

I noticed that today’s PNA forecast was much improved over yesterdays. Things are looking up! 

[the_convergence_zone]

10 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

But, but, teleconnections and a half-dozen acronyms.

So there!

Unfortunately, or fortunately in this case, most of those teleconnections are near useless as prognostic tools. Unless you’re ok with a forecast that something beyond 2 weeks is like 10 or 20% more likely to happen than random chance. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Our beautiful cold and crisp weather is about to come to an end. One more day before the rains arrive on Thursday. It will be a nice change of pace though and it will get windy on some days. Lows into the 50s by early next week.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

In our weekly weather ZOOM call I told a couple of forum members that I think we have about an 80% of no lowland snow this winter, and a 20% of something completely BONKERS. 

[Phil]

40 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I know Phil keeps talking about no cold on our side of the pole, but pretty much every long range model I see shows significant cold air loading in NW Canada once we get into December. 

I don’t know what you’re looking at, but neither the EPS nor GEPS projects anything like that within 10 days. There is no meaningful signal for NW Canada cold loading (minus transient stuff associated w/ brief -WPO, and that’s wayyy out there and probably meaningless).

And even if it did manage to happen, the pattern to produce it would probably not deliver it into the PNW given the base state this year. Will require massive downstream blocking to even be remotely possible.