December 2023 Weather in the PNW

[RentonHill]

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Update! Sun! 

Same here. A surprisingly bright and dry afternoon.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

9 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Our favorite Uncle has been drinking this afternoon. Day 6-8

 

That looks like fun.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

6 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Been mostly sunny since late morning after pulling in a whopping 0.10" since midnight.

0.35" since midnight IMBY.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Wake me when the Euro concurs.

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Wake me when the Euro concurs.

Ya they couldn’t be further apart days 6+. But I feel like number 1 on our checklist should be “is the goofus showing crazy 10 days out” because have we ever had a good event where the gfs wasnt showing some total blast for like three weeks straight??

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice 18z run.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, RentonHill said:

Ya they couldn’t be further apart days 6+. But I feel like number 1 on our checklist should be “is the goofus showing crazy 10 days out” because have we ever had a good event where the gfs wasnt showing some total blast for like three weeks straight??

Exactly, if it keeps bringing it back then maybe we'll have something decent by New Year's. 

[Phil]

21 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You are the biggest politician on here. You say so much without saying anything at all. 

All I did was answer a question. What do you want, a fucking novel?

[Snownerd3000]

1 hour ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Anyone need a laugh? My neighbors rushed out to get studded tires. Not because they are traveling to Montana or anything like that. Nah. They told me they think the weather is going to get really cold because of something they saw on the internet. Their words "This guy said we're like in the vortex and its going to get cold" ... I almost smacked myself in the head when they told me this. I then nicely tried to explain the Polar Vortex, high arctic, lobes oscillating, and they looked at me like I was speaking Mandarin or something.

18z GFS running now!
00z ECMWF in 8 hours 9 minutes

Speaking mandarin you say?  You tell them about the Panda Express coming our way?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Exactly, if it keeps bringing it back then maybe we'll have something decent by New Year's. 

More likely we’ll have 50˚F rain.

[Gradient Keeper]

5 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Speaking mandarin you say?  You tell them about the Panda Express coming our way?

lol This was before the Panda Express quote came out.

00z NAM in 2 hours 37 minutes

[snow_wizard]

You have to wonder if the 18z GFS is a different model than the other 3 runs of the day.

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

More likely we’ll have 50˚F rain.

Doubtful.  That is pretty warm for that time of year.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

You have to wonder if the 18z GFS is a different model than the other 3 runs of the day.

It is. It has to be. The data set for the 18z is wearing beer goggles.

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You have to wonder if the 18z GFS is a different model than the other 3 runs of the day.

Looking at the 18z GEFS mean, you’d think so.

Just a tad different.  

[TacomaWx]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Doubtful.  That is pretty warm for that time of year.

We did have really warm rain in the 50s around Christmastime last year right after the ice storm. 

[snow_wizard]

I would pay to have to 18z GFS be right.  Another winner!

[The Cats Meow]

I expected soaking rain Friday.  Didn't happen.  Then Saturday I expected soaking rains.  Not so much.  Santa parade was quite nice actually.  Then I thought today was supposed to be soaking rains.  So far no soaking rain and temps in the mid to upper 50's.  Might have to cut the grass soon and spread some mulch on my daffodil bulbs that are starting to peak out.

For sure there will be soaking rains on Monday, right?

[snow_wizard]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

We did have really warm rain in the 50s around Christmastime last year right after the ice storm. 

It certainly happens.  I think 50 on New Years is likely shooting high though.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, The Cats Meow said:

I expected soaking rain Friday.  Didn't happen.  Then Saturday I expected soaking rains.  Not so much.  Santa parade was quite nice actually.  Then I thought today was supposed to be soaking rains.  So far no soaking rain and temps in the mid to upper 50's.  Might have to cut the grass soon and spread some mulch on my daffodil bulbs that are starting to peak out.

For sure there will be soaking rains on Monday, right?

We just finished a pretty long cold snap though.

[snow_wizard]

Other model runs and ensemble members hint at something like the 18z being possible.  Maybe these runs are just rushing it.

[Slushy Inch]

47 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Our favorite Uncle has been drinking this afternoon. Day 6-8

 

Good ol drunkle 

[Slushy Inch]

[The Cats Meow]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We just finished a pretty long cold snap though.

I"m ready for a good long soaking rain.  I can't believe anything for mid December at this point when the day to day forecast is a continuous bust.  Where is the big wind storm for this afternoon?  No show?

[Slushy Inch]

14 minutes ago, Phil said:

Looking at the 18z GEFS mean, you’d think so.

Just a tad different.  

At least the ridging in Alaska is stronger this GEFS run.

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

At least the ridging in Alaska is stronger this GEFS run.

True. Though tbh I’m not very impressed with the pattern or the ensemble trend.

The -PNA/-NAO keeps disintegrating and getting pushed back, with the El Niño/LP regime manifesting more consistently (esp in terms of the run-to-run change).

[SouthHillFrosty]

Wife had me working all day in the yard today. Glad it didn't rain the whole time. 

Anyways.. Sweet baby Jesus, what a run!!!!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

29 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Doubtful.  That is pretty warm for that time of year.

It is easier to get 50˚F rain in the winter in this climate than it is to get snow.

Therefore, 50˚F rain is more likely than snow on New Years Day.

#climo

[Slushy Inch]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

True. Though tbh I’m not very impressed with the pattern or the ensemble trend.

The -PNA/-NAO keeps disintegrating and getting pushed back, with the El Niño/LP regime manifesting more consistently (esp in terms of the run-to-run change).

I wouldn’t be hopeful for anything without EPS anyways 

[Tyler Mode]

That high wind watch the NWS Portland had up sure isn't verifying lol  Peak wind of 4 mph so far today.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

26 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It certainly happens.  I think 50 on New Years is likely shooting high though.

Oh, certainly it is shooting high. 50˚F in midwinter is warmer than normal.

But, forecasting snow is shooting further below norms than 50˚F rain is high.

I didn't say that 50˚F rain was going to happen on New Year's Day, only that the odds of it happening are greater than the odds of snow happening (at least for those of us in the lowlands west of the mountains).

[Gradient Keeper]

5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Wife had me working all day in the yard today. Glad it didn't rain the whole time. 

Anyways.. Sweet baby Jesus, what a run!!!!

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

19 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Lock. It. In.

[SnowWillarrive]

40 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Wife had me working all day in the yard today. Glad it didn't rain the whole time. 

Anyways.. Sweet baby Jesus, what a run!!!!

This will happen 

[Cold Snap]

Picked up 0.22” of rain so far here today.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Rainfall warning just issued for my area. 50–70 mm (roughly 2–3") expected tomorrow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Now I see why Phil hates the 18z GFS so much. lol

[Tanis Leach]

On 12/2/2023 at 4:07 PM, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Super Nino in 1972. I believe January 1930 was a weak Nino. And of course 1968-69 was a moderate Nino. 

January 1930 was a weak to moderate La Nina.

 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/history/enso/

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1.42" so far today at EUG. Record is 3.14" from 1987.