December 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Cold Snap]

Went on a walk on the snoqualmie valley trail and the whole valley has basically become a river.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Maybe next summer we actually avoid a total blow torch. I know I know. Who am I kidding?! 

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Yes! Like WIND! I need a good windstorm!! 

Bro you’d love it here in the spring. Dry wind is the only thing we do well other than heat/humidity.  

 

 

[Deweydog]

Slammin’ Salmon Creek was making the old cart path its BEEEOTCH this afternoon.

[AlTahoe]

First snow of the winter! About 2.5" so far in 2 hours. 

[westcoastexpat]

ECMWF weeklies for 2 meter temperatures are now out for the first half of January 

[TT-SEA]

7 years ago today... my sons were only 15 so I had to drive them and their friends up to Snoqualmie Pass.    Looked it up and 12/6/16 was a Tuesday and school was closed for some reason.  We need colder weather soon.    This warm gloom sort of sucks in December. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Scravel Hill, Linn County 

[Omegaraptor]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

7 years ago today... my sons were only 15 so I had to drive them and their friends up to Snoqualmie Pass.    Looked it up and 12/6/16 was a Tuesday and school was closed for some reason.    We need colder weather soon.    This warm gloom sort of sucks in December. 

13” base depth at Timberline Lodge currently. Sad deal for December 6th. Should improve in the next few days luckily.

[MossMan]

31 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

It was windy af in March of 2016. March 13 to be exact.

That’s right! The family lake house was powerless for a while that day…This was about 5 doors down from us. 

[snow_wizard]

I'm really surprised the strong N to S temperature anomaly gradient is continuing this month.  It has been quite pronounced for weeks now.  Obviously this month it's only meant a moderate torch here vs an epic torch down south.

[MossMan]

17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

7 years ago today... my sons were only 15 so I had to drive them and their friends up to Snoqualmie Pass.    Looked it up and 12/6/16 was a Tuesday and school was closed for some reason.  We need colder weather soon.    This warm gloom sort of sucks in December. 

Chilly morning that was, and lovely in Skykomish! 

[snow_wizard]

18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

7 years ago today... my sons were only 15 so I had to drive them and their friends up to Snoqualmie Pass.    Looked it up and 12/6/16 was a Tuesday and school was closed for some reason.  We need colder weather soon.    This warm gloom sort of sucks in December. 

That is so pretty!

[SnowySeeker50]

.58" so far today

[snow_wizard]

24 minutes ago, westcoastexpat said:

ECMWF weeklies for 2 meter temperatures are now out for the first half of January 

Nino climo.  Kind of cookie cutter.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SnowySeeker50 said:

.58" so far today

I ended up with 3.73" for the 4th and 5th.  0.37" for today so far.

[AbbyJr]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Will need a top-tier, wave-2 type SSW before early-January to overcome the Niño/LP regime in the PNW (probably the most unfavorable low frequency setup possible for W-Canada/PNW this winter, otherwise).

Not powerball odds, but certainly not great.

It wouldn't surprise me to have a dud winter after back to back winters with major cold snow in the PNW. That said, there is still plenty of winter left. Therefore, it's still possible we some degree of cold and snow at some point. But the odds are definitely against us apart from a major SSW event and even at that, there are still no guarantees. That said, I'm not convinced the SSW must occur prior to early January in order to overcome the Nino state. The one in 2018 occurred late January and resulted in nearly two weeks of arctic air reloads in the PNW during the first half of February. Of course that Nino was much weaker than the current one. But we also have a -QBO, which helps with high latitude blocking when the ENSO is positive. Further, does the strength of Nino really make that much of a difference when dealing with an event so shocking to the atmosphere such as a SSW? That said, I'm nowhere near an expert but I'd be surprised if a SSW in mid or late January would be unable to aid in building a -PNA/GOA blocking pattern. Whether or not the cold would stay west or slide east is impossible to say at this range. However, I wouldn't discount the ability of a SSW later in January to perform but that's just my opinion based on my limited knowledge.

[snow_wizard]

I want to wait until this kicks in before I throw in the towel.  Should be a shakeup of some kind.  Maybe we can manage some fake cold before that.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, AbbyJr said:

It wouldn't surprise me to have a dud winter after back to back winters with major cold snow in the PNW. That said, there is still plenty of winter left. Therefore, it's still possible we some degree of cold and snow at some point. But the odds are definitely against us apart from a major SSW event and even at that, there are still no guarantees. That said, I'm not convinced the SSW must occur prior to early January in order to overcome the Nino state. The one in 2018 occurred late January and resulted in nearly two weeks of arctic air reloads in the PNW during the first half of February. Of course that Nino was much weaker than the current one but we are also in a -QBO phase, which is more favourable for high latitude blocking. That said, I'm nowhere near an expert but I'd be surprised if a SSW in mid or late January would be unable to aid in building a -PNA/GOA blocking pattern here.

Yes... -QBO is better than plus for us with a Nino so our base state could be worse.  As always a ridge can pop up in a number of places that work to give us cold temps at the surface as well.  The most likely part of a Nino winter to deliver in the NW is the first half.  We still have time.

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I think that is either photo shopped, a drift, or an avalanche.  

Pretty sure is northern Japan.  Don’t know the specifics of it though. 

[Deweydog]

15 years ago RIGHT NOW models were starting to truly melt some faces.

[Mercurial]

7 hours ago, RentonHill said:

You could always trade Nat Gas futures...probably as close as it gets and guaranteed to have a hell of a ride!!

Def interesting to think about.  Nat gas prices are affected by all sorts of stuff I know little about, like geopol risk, but maybe that stuff can be hedged out.  Prominent buy side firms often keep a met on staff to establish an information edge.

[Mercurial]

Lots of rain here in NWMT.  Some 'wow' totals in the mountains.

[RayRay]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

Pretty sure is northern Japan.  Don’t know the specifics of it though. 

Here are the specifics:

toyama prefecture jpn 

https://www.info-toyama.com/events/30003

[AbbyJr]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yes... -QBO is better than plus for us with a Nino so our base state could be worse.  As always a ridge can pop up in a number of places that work to give us cold temps at the surface as well.  The most likely part of a Nino winter to deliver in the NW is the first half.  We still have time.

Of course we still have time. But we do have to admit the odds of a major cold blast are against us. But it's far too soon to cancel winter, especially before seeing the effects of a possible major SSW event.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

16 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm really surprised the strong N to S temperature anomaly gradient is continuing this month.  It has been quite pronounced for weeks now.  Obviously this month it's only meant a moderate torch here vs an epic torch down south.

My area was solidly below normal in November and average in September and October. I don’t agree with this narrative. 

[Mercurial]

Aomori-ken has roads like the one that was posted.  Japan's climo is unreal.  I've seen 4 feet of snow in 24 hours in Aomori City.  The surrounding mountains get way more.  These pics were taken at *SEA LEVEL*.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

Jim's gonna Jim.

Just saying some of the hallmarks we look for with El Nino aren't happening yet as our Sierra Nevada resident has pointed out.  That and the fact the analogs have had a lot of non Nino years showing up all season.  What's wrong with saying it's not time to jump off the ledge yet?  As always I'm just looking for openings for something good to happen.  It's either that or be depressed all winter.  I've had a shittty year and I'm going to try to have as much fun with this as I can.  Quite frankly it's not as big a deal to me as it used to be, but I still like actual winter.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Mercurial said:

Aomori-ken has roads like the one that was posted.  Japan's climo is unreal.  I've seen 4 feet of snow in 24 hours in Aomori City.  The surrounding mountains get way more.  These pics were taken at *SEA LEVEL*.

The Cascades are still the snowiest mountains in the world.

That is quite something for sea level though.

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

My area was solidly below normal in November and average in September and October. I don’t agree with this narrative. 

Just looking at the major stations.  Also...this month the statement is unquestionably true so far.

[Front Ranger]

53 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

First snow of the winter! About 2.5" so far in 2 hours. 

Phil was right!!

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I haven't given up at all. It's just we knew going in what we were up against, and nothing so far has shown us this isn't going to turn out horrific. At some point we'll pull out of the torching, but what's that look like and for how long? I would expect a sub-par snowpack year, even though precip may generally be near normal. We know what kind of duds our climate is capable of and we've been cheating our destiny for a while now. 2018-19 was on pace to be that dud. We've really been playing with house money since then. If we are going to have a dud it is much better coming off of a winter like 2022-23 than something completely lame like 2001-02.

Warming climate or not, we still will have a long ways to go to catch up to 1999-2006 or 1939-46 in terms of broad a**-suckery. 

[snow_wizard]

Just one example of the N to S gradient I'm talking about is in November.

BLI = -2.0

PDX = +0.6

[snow_wizard]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

Warming climate or not, we still will have a long ways to go to catch up to 1999-2006 or 1939-46 in terms of broad a**-suckery. 

That 1939-46 run still blows my mind.  What came after sure made up for it though.

No doubt we have done a lot better recently than 1999-2006.

Do you still think a dry / cold period ala Jan 1970,  Dec 1987, Jan 1995, etc might still be on the table?

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The Cascades are still the snowiest mountains in the world.

That is quite something for sea level though.

I think the Andes in southern south america are snowier than the cascades by a small margin.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

I think the Andes in southern south america are snowier than the cascades by a small margin.

That could be since they are capable of snow the entire year.  I've read that snow can even happen at sea level in the summer on the very south tip.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 hours ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Shelton and Olympia look good for this weekend on the 18z.

Not to mention NW WA and SW BC.

[Skagit Weather]

6 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

almost 11 inches of rain this month at home, WOW

That's more rain than I've picked up since July.

[T-Town]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

15 years ago RIGHT NOW models were starting to truly melt some faces.

 

[BLI snowman]

48 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That 1939-46 run still blows my mind.  What came after sure made up for it though.

No doubt we have done a lot better recently than 1999-2006.

Do you still think a dry / cold period ala Jan 1970,  Dec 1987, Jan 1995, etc might still be on the table?

Seems like a pretty fair bet, though it won't necessarily be anything sexy. The two other big Ninos (1982-83, 2015-16) that followed this pattern, with the cool/dry end to November and very warm/wet start to December, both saw just enough blocking emerge after Christmas for us to secure a decent low level cold kind of hybrid pattern.